Brisk Wind Advisory 198, NWS Fairbanks, AK

057 
FZAK51 PAFG 131151
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140215-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A front will remain over the eastern Arctic Coast through tonight
then weaken as high pressure moves east through Wed night.

$$

PKZ225-140215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-140215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-140215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-140215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-140215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the Western Alaska with ridge
building into Interior bringing dry and warmer conditions to much
of the state the next couple of days. A weather front over the
high Arctic will move southward and impact the eastern half of
state starting with the Arctic overnight tonight and reach the
Alaska Range on Wednesday. This will bring increasing clouds,
precipitation, thunderstorms and winds to the Eastern Brooks Range
on Tuesday, as well as the Central and Eastern Interior on
Wednesday while the west coast and western Interior will remain
under high pressure and dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models are in general agreement with the large scale synoptic
features in the short term and then begin to diverge by the next
weekend, especially along the high Arctic. A closed upper level
low southeast of Kodiak Island will slowly meander and drift to
the northeast in the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday, as a stronger
upper level low located near 80N will push south into NW Canada on
Wednesday. High pressure will dominate the west coast and eastern
Bering Sea until Friday. Model differences start to emerge for the
next weekend the GFS ensemble models tend to have a slower track
for the next upper level low in the high Arctic compared to the
ECMWF deterministic. Leaning towards the slower track similar to
the consensus of the models.

Relatively quiet weather and warmer temperatures across the area
today. Some smoke from the Munson Creek wildfire spread southward
across the greater Fairbanks area this morning as winds shifted
with the weak front that moved across this morning. Winds will
increase from the southwest to west ahead of a strong front
that will move southward across the Interior on Wednesday. This
strong front will move across the North Slope near Utqiagvik
east tonight, across the Brooks Range Tuesday, and expected to be
across Alaska Range on Wednesday. With this strong front we are
expecting showers and thunderstorms along the front when it cross
the eastern Brooks Range and moves into the Interior on Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. Some of these storms will likely
produce strong winds, small hail, frequent lighting and heavy
downpours.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stronger winds along the Chukchi
Sea coastline from Cape Lisburne northward with sustained winds 20
to 25 mph with gusts at Cape Lisburne of 50 to 60 mph. Winds will
begin to diminish through the evening for areas along Chukchi Sea
coast. From Utqiagvik eastward the westerly winds have also
increase as the weather front approaches the coast from the
north.The winds will shift this evening to the northwest and
expect precipitation moving across the coast from Utqiagvik
eastward overnight tonight into Tuesday for the Brooks Range.
Expect warmer temperatures across the North Slope today with 70's
over the inland areas and 50's and 60's along the immediate coast
but this will drop for Tuesday and Wednesday after the frontal
passage. Temperatures will then begin to rebound gradually on by
Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Relatively quiet weather for
next several days, expecting mainly clear skies and warm
conditions through at least mid-week. Dense fog continues across St
Lawerence with areas in the evening where visibility may improve
to 2SM briefly but will drop back visibilities of a quarter mile
or less. Small craft winds across the Bering Strait and portions
of western Chukchi Sea will diminish tonight. Inland temperatures
will climb into the 70's with mainly 60's and 50's on the coast.
Thunderstorm activity is not expected tonight, but may see
isolated activity near the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys late
Tuesday night and then increase in thunderstorms activity in the
Western Interior on Wednesday with areas extending from Noatak to
Shungnak and Hughes.

Central and Eastern Interior...Per latest satellite imagery along
with web-cameras the smoke from the Munson Creek wildfire swept
across the Middle Tanana Valley this morning with some
visibilities being reduced to 5sm but as of 2:00 pm AKDT has
vastly improved getting mixed out. The smoke moved into the area
as northerly flow from the weak weather front moved across the
area. Winds will switch to southwesterly flow in advance of a
much strong front that will move southward from the high Arctic on
Wednesday. Expect warmer temperatures as high pressure
strengthens and maximum temperatures peaking tomorrow in the upper
70's to lower 80's, with the warmest temperatures in the Yukon
Flats. As stated the southwest to west ahead of a front is
expected to increase tomorrow afternoon before frontal passage on
Wednesday. The strong front will be the focus for active
thunderstorms on Wednesday along the Brooks Range and most of the
Central and Eastern Interior by the afternoon and evening. The
thunderstorms on Wednesday will likely produce frequent lighting,
small hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall. Expect cooler
temperatures and showers in the Central and eastern Interior on
Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming and drying trend for the next couple days with
temperatures peaking in the upper 70's and lower 80's on Tuesday.
Minimum relatively humidities will fall into the 20's percent over
the eastern Interior with a large area across the Brooks Range
and central Interior in the 30's percent. A strong front
approaching from the north on Tuesday is going to increase
southwesterly winds over the central and eastern Interior and may
impact the active fires in the region during the peak of the heat
and lower relative humidities this evening and again on Tuesday.
As this front moves southward across the Interior on Wednesday,
thunderstorms are possible along the front and expected to persist
through the overnight hours. The thunderstorms on Wednesday will
likely produce frequent lighting, strong gusty winds, small hail
and and heavy rainfall. While minimum relative humidities on
Wednesday afternoon will increase across much of central and
eastern Interior expect areas from Bettles to Fort Yukon to
Chalkyitsik that will remain in the mid 20's to 30's percent
Thursday will bring cooler temperatures, precipitation, and higher
relative humidity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrology issues expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

JUL 21