Brisk Wind Advisory 195, NWS Fairbanks, AK

889 
FZAK51 PAFG 052214
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061700-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1020 mb high over the Beaufort Sea will drift east as a 1000 mb
low moves up the west coast to near Point Lay by Tuesday morning.
A weather front will sweep north across the North Slope Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-061700-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-061700-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-061700-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-061700-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-061700-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
214 PM AKDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

Jul 21

978 
FZAK51 PAFG 061158
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-070215-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1020 mb high over the Beaufort Sea will drift east as a 1000 mb
low near Kotzebue moves north today. A weather front associated
with this low will sweep north across the North Slope today.

$$

PKZ225-070215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-070215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-070215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-070215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-070215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
358 AM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding
to 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

571 
FZAK51 PAFG 062206
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-071400-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front over the coast will lift N as it weakens with 
weak high pressure over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wed, and weak low
pressure from Utqiagvik W as a 996 mb low moves to Atqasuk. 
Thursday the low will move N into the Arctic with a trough of low 
pressure developing over the plains. 

$$

PKZ225-071400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-071400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft subsiding.
Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-071400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt becoming S. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-071400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-071400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
206 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft subsiding. Fog and
freezing fog. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Today is fairly benign with most of Nrn AK temperatures near or
below normal. Mon will see a warm up and drying over the Eastern
Interior with temps in the 70s and lowers 80s, and with Red Flag
conditions expected near Delta Junction Mon PM, with a chance of
Red Flag conditions along the Alaska Highway east of Delta Mon PM.

Weak high pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
persist into Tue, keeping light winds along the Arctic Coast which
will allow fog and stratus to fog late at night and continue into
the morning each day.

A low pressure trough over the Northern Bering and SW Alaska will
move to the Seward Pen to McGrath by 4am Mon, and then continue
to North of the Arctic Coast by 4pm Mon and weaken. This is
causing widespread rain over the areas from the Bering Strait to
the YK Delta that will spread north over the West Coast and
Western Interior tonight, and over the Wrn North Slope on Mon.

An occluded front in the southern Bering Sea will move to the YK
Delta tonight, to Gambell to Kotzebue to McGrath by 4pm Mon,
Gambell to Point Hope to Bettles to Denali by 4am Tue, to
Wainwright to Atigun Pass to Delta Junction by 4pm Tue, and then
move north and east of Alaska by 4am Wed. A broad area of
significant rain will spread northeast across Northern Alaska with
the front. Numerous to scattered showers will continue in the
southwest flow behind the front.

Weak to moderate downslope conditions developing over
the Alaska Range Mon ahead of the front will diminish from the
west Mon night through Tue night behind the front. Can expect
SW winds 10g20 mph along the front, and south winds 25g40 mph
along the Alaska Range Mon PM ahead front, with winds decreasing
most areas behind the front. Temps will cool to well below normal
behind this front and remain cool through Fri. This is expected
to cause Red Flag conditions near Delta Junction Mon PM, with
near Red Flag conditions along the Alaska Highway east of Delta
Mon PM. West of Delta Junction, RH values area expected to remain
above 30%, so even though areas may have winds of 15 mph they
will not have dry conditions. Temps will cool to well below normal
behind this front and remain cool through Fri.

Expect West Coast and Wrn Interior to have 0.50-1.00 inch of
precip today through Tue from this feature, while the Ern Interior
can expect 0.25 inch or more of rain most areas between Mon night
and Wed.

A thermal low pressure trough that stretches from Arctic Village
southeast will move to Northway to Arctic Village by 4pm Mon, then
move along the ALCAN Border by 4pm Tue. Expect Isolated PM
thunderstorms along and east of this trough.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering Sea
and Western Gulf of Alaska and a ridge over NW Canada and Eastern
Interior Alaska. A series of short wave troughs making their way
northeast out of the trough will gradually erode the ridge and
pull the long wave trough east over Mainland Alaska by Wed and
remain there through Fri. This will cause conditions to trend
cooler and wetter from Tue through Fri. Expect a ridge to build
over Nrn AK next weekend, which will cause a warming and drying
trend next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through Tue, with slight differences showing up
by Wed.

With precip. models show same general pattern through 4pm Mon.
After that time the NAM spreads precip east more slowly over the
Ern Interior than the GFS and ECMF, probably due to the
continuation of downslope flow over the Alaska Range. Will use a
blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMF for precip, and make sure that Mon
night POPs remain chance or less in the SE Interior rain shadow,
but trend upwards Tue into Wed as the downslope flow ends.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well and show similar
solutions through 4am Tue, then start to see significant
differences between models on low moving east across the southern
Bering, and also on the low moving east across the Chukchi Sea. At
this time favor a blend of the GFS and ECMF, but lean more
towards the ECMF Tue night and Wed on the low moving east across
the Chukchi Sea which the ECMF keep much deeper than the GFS/ and
the GFS weaken this low much more rapidly than the other models.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of models for
temperatures, precip, with the caveat that we will keep pops in
the chance category Mon night in the downslope areas of the Ern
Interior, and then have pops increasing to likely spreading east
through Wed as the downslope slowly ends from the west. For winds
will use a blend of models through 4am Tue, then use a blend of
the ECMF and GFS for Tue into Wed, but increase winds Tue night
and Wed over the Chukchi Sea per the deeper ECMF solutions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today is fairly benign with most of Nrn AK temperatures near or
below normal. Mon will see a warm up and drying over the Eastern
Interior with temps in the 70s and lowers 80s, and with Red Flag
conditions expected near Delta Junction Mon PM, with a chance of
Red Flag conditions along the Alaska Highway east of Delta Mon PM.

An occluded front in the Bering Sea will move along the West Coast
and Western Interior on Move, and then move east across the Ern
Interior Mon night through Tue night. A broad area of significant
rain will spread northeast across Northern Alaska with the front.
Numerous to scattered showers will continue in the southwest flow
behind the front.

Downslope conditions developing over the Alaska Range Mon ahead
of the front will diminish from the west Mon night through Tue
night behind the front. Can expect SW winds 10g20 mph along the
front, and south winds 25g40 mph along the Alaska Range Mon PM
ahead front, with winds decreasing most areas behind the front.
Temps will cool to well below normal behind this front and remain
cool through Fri. This is expected to cause Red Flag conditions
near Delta Junction Mon PM, with near Red Flag conditions along
the Alaska Highway east of Delta Mon PM. West of Delta Junction,
RH values are expected to remain above 30% so even though areas
may have winds they will not have dry conditions. Temps will cool
to well below normal behind this front and remain cool through
Fri.

Expect West Coast and Wrn Interior to have 0.50-1.00 inch of
precip today through Tue from this feature, while the Ern Interior
can expect 0.25 inch or more of rain most areas between Mon night
and Wed.

A thermal low pressure trough that stretches from Arctic Village
southeast will move to Northway to Arctic Village by 4pm Mon, then
move along the ALCAN Border by 4pm Tue. Expect Isolated PM
thunderstorms along and east of this trough.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
0.50-1.00 inch of rain that fell in the past day over the Eastern
Brooks Range will cause rises on rivers draining both sides of
Eastern Brooks. Expect West Coast and Wrn Interior to have
0.50-1.00 inch of precip today through Tue. This will cause rise
on rivers across those areas. Rivers in the Ern Interior expected
to remain steady and possibly rise slightly by mid-week. No
flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

&&

JB JUL 21