Brisk Wind Advisory 188, NWS Fairbanks, AK

297 
FZAK51 PAFG 072216
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-081430-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong trough of low pressure will remain along the Arctic Coast
from Demarcation Point to Point Barrow before lifting offshore Tue
night. A high over Banks Island will retreat and weaken Tue night.

$$

PKZ225-081430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-081430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-081430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ240-081430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ245-081430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

Jun 21

834 
FZAK51 PAFG 081055
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-090200-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure extending across the Arctic from a 1028 mb high E 
of Banks Island will slide N as a trough of low pressure develops
over the Arctic Coast. Wed morning the high pressure will be
pushed N as the trough of low pressure lifts over the near shore
waters. 

$$

PKZ225-090200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-090200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-090200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog and 
fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-090200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Fog and freezing 
fog.
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-090200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
255 AM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

354 
FZAK51 PAFG 082306
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-091415-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure near Demarcation Point will rapidly
weaken and lift north tonight. A second trough of low pressure
will form near Wainwright Wed night and form into a 1001 mb low
near Wrangel Island by Thu.

$$

PKZ225-091415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-091415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing fog and
fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ235-091415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-091415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-091415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1232 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is in the air over the Eastern Interior with an active
thunderstorm day expected from the Fortymile Uplands southeast to
the Eastern AK Range, and everything else in between including
Fairbanks and the White Mountains. Storms have already popped as
of noon. Over the West Coast, cold and gloomy continues and will
continue so for the next few days before the anomalous upper level
low kicks out. Fog and stratus along the North Slope will
continue for the next several days, along with increasing easterly
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 528 dam 500 hpa cutoff low remains in place over the Bering
Strait, which it has been parked over for several days now. An
area of isentropic ascent/warm advection aloft has undercut the
low and is moving across Norton Sound as moderate cold rain. A
thin ridge persists over the Eastern/Central Interior with a
subtle shortwave trough moving across the eastern periphery of the
ridge. This feature can be seen on satellite moving southeast into
the White Mountains and Fortymile Uplands. Soundings and model
data indicate a rather robust and unstable convective environment
this afternoon as LI values drop into the -3C range with SB CAPE
around 500-800 j/kg. Given favorable northeast wind trajectories
aloft, expect an active afternoon and evening.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in very good agreement with the general
pattern for the next few days and are now coming into much better
agreement with the departing cutoff low over the West Coast
Wednesday night and Thursday, with that low finally getting
"kicked out" across the North Slope. Today and tomorrow the models
have settled on a rather robust convective environment over the
Interior, with today around -3 LI and 500-800 j/kg CAPE, and
similar values tomorrow although displaced west, and over a larger
area across the Central Interior. The favored models were the NAM
and GFS blended together for the next few days.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Active thunderstorm day again today, with activity likely going
into the later evening giving more favorable upper level forcing.
As of this AFD, storms have already popped over the White
Mountains with likely small hail and lightning strikes reported.
These will likely drift south into the valley later today.

Tomorrow, another warm day especially over the Eastern Interior
where sun will last the longest. More active thunderstorm day,
this time favoring the Central Interior north to the Upper Koyukuk
Valley, and east to the Minto Flats. A cold front will push east
and congeal thunderstorms into a long line of heavy showers
overnight as it moves east through the Tanana Valley, AK Range,
and Yukon Flats. Temps drop sharply Tuesday as 850 hpa temps drop
from 8C to 0C, with daytime highs struggling into the 60s.
Showery, cloudier, and cooler conditions persist into the latter
part of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Cold and gloomy for much of the West Coast as bands of showers
wrap around the cold upper low entrenched over the area. Snow
showers will continue over the Bering Strait but the remainder of
areas will mostly just see rain showers over the next few days.
Temps begin a very slow rebound beginning tomorrow along the coast
with cooler conditions moving across the Interior as the front
shifts inland. Bands of heavy showers move across the Interior as
well on Monday as the front tracks through to the east.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and stratus along with some occasional flurries will continue
as a a couple shortwave troughs move over the Arctic coast. The
Brooks Range will see another couple days of thunderstorms over
the eastern part of the range with heavy showers shifting west as
an upper low moves over that part of the Brooks. Mixed rain and
snow showers will move over the the Arctic plain and onto the
coast Tue and Wed as the upper level flow becomes more southerly
and warmer air lifts northward. Temps will begin to rise across
the whole region by Tue. Strong east winds 25 gusting to 40 mph
will develop over the eastern Arctic tonight and will last through
Tue before moving offshore and quickly weakening.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Much uncertainty still surrounds the extended period forecast
beginning on Thursday as the upper low currently over the West
Coast finally kicks out to the northeast. A series of waves behind
this will eventually merge and the upstream energy that eventually
moves in is still creating havoc in the global models for the
Mainland of AK. The GFS and Canadian are more bullish building in
some degree of ridging and thus warmer temps while the EC favors
more troughing and cooler temps and cloudier weather, with another
bout of well below average temps for the West Coast. For now we will
continue to favor a blend of everything given the uncertainty
with a mostly seasonal extended forecast for the Mainland until
the global guidance can settle on a general solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Two more days of active thunderstorms over the Interior, including
this afternoon, as a thermal trough a upper ridge remain in place.
Tomorrow the instability axis will expand west, and should allow
for organized thunderstorm activity as a front shifts east at the
same time, from the Central Interior/Upper Koyukuk to the Minto
Flats. A cold front and much wetter/moist conditions with it will
shift east into the Eastern Interior Tuesday and Wednesday, with
the thermal trough completely falling apart by Wednesday. Cooler
and showery lasts through Thu.

Out west, cool and showery the next several days with no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers are leveling off over the Fortymile Uplands and Upper
Tanana. No heavy rain is forecast over these areas.

Moderate rainfall will fall over the Western Interior the next
couple days with up to an inch of rainfall, but there are no
current concerns.

Breakup continues along the North Slope with no current
significant concerns.

For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21