Brisk Wind Advisory 179, NWS Fairbanks, AK

566 
FZAK51 PAFG 212204
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-221400-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Broad low pressure over mainland Alaska will push over the
nearshore waters as a 1028 mb high holds over the Northern
Beaufort Sea. A 996 mb low near Shishmaref will move to 150 nm
NW of Point Lay at 1006 mb Sat afternoon, and to 300 nm NW of
Utqiagvik by Sun afternoon at 1007 mb. 

$$

PKZ225-221400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Rain.
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-221400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-221400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-221400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-221400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
204 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

541 
FZAK51 PAFG 221240
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-230230-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Low pressure over the North Slope will gradually drift north 
today, while high pressure holds over the Northern Beaufort Sea. 
The low will strengthen and move into the northern Chukchi Sea by
Sunday, while weak high pressure builds over the North Slope.

$$

PKZ225-230230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-230230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt becoming SW. Seas building to 4 ft.
Freezing fog and fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-230230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-230230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-230230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
440 AM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

May 21

423 
FZAK51 PAFG 222302
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-231430-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Low pressure over the northern Chukchi Sea will move northeast 
across the Arctic Ocean through Sunday. High pressure will build 
over the Bering Strait on Sunday and drift north to the Chukchi 
Sea and Arctic Coast on Monday.

$$

PKZ225-231430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-231430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-231430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming SW. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...SW winds increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-231430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming W. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-231430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
302 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

574 
FZAK51 PAFG 231220
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-240230-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1009 mb area of low pressure over the Northern Chukchi Sea will
move NE into the Arctic Ocean today. High pressure will build 
over the Bering Strait today and drift N to the Chukchi Sea and 
Arctic Coast on Monday.

$$

PKZ225-240230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-240230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-240230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-240230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-240230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

312 
FZAK51 PAFG 232221
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-241400-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1010 mb low 300 nm NW of Utqiagvik will move E, then NE by 
Mon morning with a cold front dragging across the Arctic, and into
the Beaufort Sea by Tue morning as the high pressure moves over 
the Arctic Coast with a 1034 mb high near Deadhorse.

$$

PKZ225-241400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-241400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-241400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SW winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-241400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SW winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-241400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
221 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

389 
FZAK51 PAFG 241200
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-250230-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1014 mb low near 81N, north of Utqiagvik, will move NE this
morning. A cold front will track across the Chukchi Sea into the 
Beaufort Sea this evening. High pressure will build over the 
Arctic Coast today with a 1034 mb high near Deadhorse by Tuesday 
morning.

$$

PKZ225-250230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-250230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-250230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SW winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-250230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-250230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
400 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low will continue to move poleward off the eastern Beaufort
Sea coast this afternoon taking any remaining precipitation with
it off the North Slope. Stratus and occasional areas of fog will
continue to plague the western North Slope and Chukchi coast.
Across the eastern interior a boundary will be a focus for some
very isolated convection northeast of the Upper Yukon River Valley
over into the Yukon Territories. A surface ridge lies along the
northern Gulf of Alaska coastline with weak trough over the
western interior and west coast. For Friday through the weekend
look for more showers in the interior as general upper level
troughiness continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The hemispheric pattern resembles a seven wave setup for the
northern hemisphere starting out the forecast evolving into a more
typical five wave pattern by late on Sunday that remains fairly
stable through the remainder of the forecast.

The main features in the mid to upper levels across the North
Pacific and Alaska sector of the globe will be an upper low south
of Kodiak Island, a complex of upper level troughiness over the
Russian Far East and North Pacific with some weak ridging over the
Yukon and extreme far east of the Alaskan Interior mid day on
Thursday.

The pattern progresses along with the evolution of the upper
levels drilling an upper low into the western Bering Sea from the
complex of upper level troughiness in the Russian Far East
inducing a weak ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea and general weak
upper level troughiness with a negative slant over the Mainland of
Alaska. Upper ridging will strengthen over the McKenzie River
Valley by mid day on Saturday.

This pattern continues with the western Bering Sea low
becoming an anchoring feature spinning waves around it keeping the
impact weather over the western areas and Bering Sea. A weak upper
low drags across the 80N region with another upper low over
central Saskatchewan producing weak induced ridging over the
mainland of Alaska by mid day on Monday.

The 12Z global model suite all have their own flavor on the
evolution and positioning of features, however in the end produce
similar outcomes for the synoptic forecast through the weekend.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
On Sunday the upper level trough will shift into the eastern
Interior as a ridge builds over the Bering Sea and the west coast
of Alaska. The ridge over the west coast looks to persist into
early next week although the models differ on the details of this.
The models are hinting that a low will move into the Bering Sea
late next week bringing unsettled conditions to the west coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A trough over the interior located roughly along the Yukon River
with a ridge of coastal high pressure to the south will continue
the southerly flow through the Alaska Range gaps through early
Saturday morning. Locales are reporting in with advisory and near
advisory level winds in those local forecast zones. Boundary layer
moisture, limited already, will be reduced by the downslope flow.
This inhibits convection in the Tanana Valley and southern regions
of the Fortymile region. Best convective potential remains with
the trough along the Yukon in the weaker flow for any possible
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Even on Saturday the
convective potential is there, however the realized potential
energy is weak at best right along the international border with
Canada for thunderstorms. On Sunday the low from the Gulf of
Alaska starts to weaken and transfers energy into the Yukon. Model
dependent there is a chance of a weak northeast to easterly wave
for the eastern interior for an isolated thunderstorms within the
showers. Temperatures will continue along the trend as of late a
little cooler on the cloudy days and days with more sun more
warmth into the 60s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The Chuckchi Sea Coast will see fog and low stratus through
Friday. Gusty easterly winds will develop along the Beaufort Sea
coast on Friday and will continue into Saturday as a surface
trough strengthens along the north side of the Brooks Range and
high pressure build over the Canadian Archipelago. Temperatures
will warm on Friday as a ridge builds in aloft over the area.
Chances for precipitation will increase over the Chukchi Sea Coast
on Friday night as a system moves in from the south.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front will move north into the Yukon Delta and will continue to
move north along the coast overnight. This front will bring rain
as it moves through. Areas immediately along the coast could see
some snow mix in with the rain at times as well tonight. Showers
will continue along the west coast on Friday as a upper level low
moves into the Norton Sound Region from the west. As the low
pushes east on Friday, chances for showers will increase over the
Western Interior as well. The upper low will push into the Western
Interior on Saturday resulting in continued unsettled and showery
conditions. Precipitation should taper off along the coast on
Saturday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southerly wind will remain gusty with a pressure gradient
remaining in place over the Alaska. Today has been a little bit
warmer than yesterday for most locations in the Interior and
minimum RH values will be slightly lower. Minimum RH values lower
than 25 percent are expected today across much of the middle and
upper Tanana Valley. The combination of strong southerly winds and
low RH values will bring Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction
south to Donnelly Dome. Red Flag Warnings are currently out for
portions of zones 223 and 226. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening northeast of a line from Chicken to
Beaver. A cooling trend in temperatures is expected for Friday and
Saturday with increased chances for showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River and rivers south of it are mainly ice free.
Rivers north of the Yukon are starting to break up with the
Koyukuk and Buckland rivers mostly clear of ice, as is the Kobuk
upstream of Kobuk village. The Kobuk River downstream of the
village still has sections of ice so people in Kobuk, Shungnak,
Ambler and Selawik will need to remain alert for possible jams.
North of the Brooks Range rivers remain frozen. Go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

PROTON MAY 21