Brisk Wind Advisory 177, NWS Fairbanks, AK

368 
FZAK51 PAFG 162344
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171430-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1012 mb low near Nuiqsut will move to near Wainwright as a 1013
mb low by 4pm Mon, then move to 100 NM west of Wainwright as a
1018 mb low by 4pm Tue. A cold front stretching south from this
low will move to along the Arctic Coast east of Wainwright Mon,
and then move north of the coast on Tue. 

$$

PKZ225-171430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-171430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-171430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-171430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-171430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
344 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 
1 NM or less.
.MON...E winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

May 21

594 
FZAK51 PAFG 171231
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-180200-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1014 mb low near Utqiagvik will move over Wainwright this
evening as weak low pressure persists over the Arctic Coast
through Tue morning. High pressure associated with a 1031 mb  
high 600 nm N of Demarcation Point persists across the Northern 
Arctic and high pressure will push S over the Eastern Arctic 
Coast Tue. 

$$

PKZ225-180200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-180200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-180200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-180200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-180200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
431 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
502 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers in the Interior mainly
south and east of the Yukon River, with some isolated
thunderstorms mainly south and east of Fairbanks. Snow in the
Arctic today primarily west of Kaktovik with around 1 inch in the
coastal areas, and up to 4 inches in the Brooks Range. Breakup has
quieted for the moment, but there is still plenty of ice in the
rivers to cause issues, so resident along the rivers should remain
vigilant.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...16/00Z solutions show good agreement in the short term,
but the operational solutions are almost useless in the extended
periods as they show little agreement, so will move toward a
Ensemble mean solution for the extended periods. Surface solutions
initialized well against the 16/06Z local analysis with the
thermal trough from Chicken to just north of Fairbanks to Tanana
to Russian Mission this evening. Convective numbers look good for
at least isolated thunderstorms with Lifted Index from +1 to -1,
and CAPE values up to 400 J/kg. For the short term we used a
general blend of the solutions. No significant changes in the
winds and temperatures, but will make some targeted adjustments.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging British Columbia extends northwest
of the Yukon Territory to a 542 dam high over Eagle, then
southwest to a 542 dam high over the Tanana Flats then over
McGrath to Mountain Village to a 547 dam high 150 nm northwest of
St Matthew Island. A 535 dam low is moving west over Arctic Coast
and is over Cape Halkett this morning, while troughing south of
the ridge extends northeast from a 534 dam low 250 nm southeast of
Sand Point to a 535 dam low 150 nm southeast of Kodiak City. A
545 dam high has moved over the Central Beaufort Sea. By Monday
morning the low over the Arctic Coast will move over Point Lay at
534 dam while ridging will remain over the Beaufort Sea. A 536 dam
low moving east over the Northern Bering Sea will move to 150 nm
northwest of St Matthew Island as the ridging flattens out and the
axis slide south to lie from Adak to a 545 dam high over the
Copper River Basin then east. By Tuesday morning the low in the
Arctic will still be over Point Lay as the low that was near St
Matthew Island moves over the Lower Yukon Delta at 535 dam.
Ridging will move southeast and be south of the Alaska Peninsula
extending northeast over the southern Yukon Territory. At 850
hpa...A band of temperatures between 0C and +3C lies between the
ranges with temperatures north of the Brooks Range -3C to -10C
range today. Temperatures will moderate slowly in the Interior
today to around 0C, while the cold pool around -10C will persist
over the Western Arctic.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1028 mb high in the
northern Beaufort Sea extends west across the Arctic to a 1027 mb
high near the Dateline 250 nm north of Wrangel Island. Broad low
pressure persists over mainland Alaska with the thermal trough
extending from Chicken to just north of Fairbanks to a 1006 mb low
near Tanana to Russian Mission. Low pressure extends southwest to
a 1009 mb low 200 nm south of Sand Point, and a 1009 mb low is in
Prince William Sound. By Monday morning the thermal trough will
lie from Eagle to a 1008 mb low near Ft Yukon to a 1008 mb low
near Bettles to Mcgrath with low pressure extending south over the
Northeast Pacific. High pressure will persist over the northern
Arctic with the high moving from the Beaufort Sea to 600 nm north
of Demarcation Point. High pressure will extend south out of the
Arctic across the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Gulf of Anadyr to a
1025 mb high near 55N and the Dateline.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some Spring snow in the Arctic and
the Brooks Range today. Conditions have improved a bit on the
Eastern Arctic Coast with offshore flow, but this afternoon
easterly flow will return and low stratus and fog will move back
in. Around an inch of snow for the Central Arctic and parts of
the plains today, with up to 4 inches of snow in the Central and
Eastern Brooks Range. Slightly cooler temperatures. Winds variable
to 15 mph this morning will become northeast to east at 5 to 15
mph this afternoon for most areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley with some isolated
showers. Mainly southwest to northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the 30s to
lower 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated to scattered rain showers
mainly south of the Yukon River, along with some isolated
thunderstorms mainly south and east of Fairbanks. Winds variable
to 10 mph. High temperatures cooling to the 50s to around 60 the
next couple days, and low in the 30s and 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Low stratus and areas of
fog in the Arctic will continue with easterly flow. Thermal
trough will persist in the Interior, but may move to the Upper
Tanana Valley, or the Fortymile Country and that will impact
where thunderstorm activity will be. A little warmer and drier as
the week goes on.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorms mainly south and east of
Fairbanks. Scattered to isolated showers south of the Yukon River.
Relative Humidity values in the 30s and 40s. Overnight recovery
will be good through Tuesday. High temperatures in the 40s to
around 60 the next couple days.

&&

.Hydrology...Breakup is quiet at the moment, but that can change
quickly. No current issues. Ice continues to rot and candle with
a limited amount of large ice to create problems unless the water
rises and picks up stranded ice on the shoreline. Go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 21