Brisk Wind Advisory 176, NWS Fairbanks, AK

889 
FZAK51 PAFG 161303
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-170200-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1013 mb low over the central Arctic Plain will move to Utqiagvik
Mon morning at 1015mb. A 1028 mb high in the Northern Beaufort Sea
will move to 600 nm N of Demarcation Pt Mon morning, and to 600 nm
N of Oliktok Pt Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ225-170200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-170200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-170200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-170200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-170200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 
1 NM or less.
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Chicken to Fairbanks
to St Marys will move to Chicken to Tanana to McGrath by 4pm Sun,
then move to Chicken to Circle to Minchumina by 4pm Mon, and along
the ALCAN Border on Tue. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will occur along this trough today, with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated PM thunderstorms along the trough
Sun and Mon, and possibly Tue. Some of the thunderstorms today
will contain small hail and gusty winds.

High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Tue and cause stratus and fog to persist over the North
Slope.

An upper level trough over NW Alaska will move into the Western
Interior on Sun, and to the Central North Slope and Central
Interior on Mon, and to the ALCAN Border on Tue. A band of
widespread showers will develop along and just east of this trough
on Mon and move east with the trough. Expect surface temperature
to cool 5-10F along and west of this trough aloft. Also expect
this feature to cause widespread snow showers from the Brooks
Range north Sun PM into Mon PM, and could see 2-4 inches of snow
from Anaktuvuk Pass north Sun into Mon. Could also see snow
showers with a few inches of snow above 3000 ft across the
Interior Sun PM into Tue.

Pattern Aloft...
Weak trough aloft over Northern Alaska will persist through the
middle of next week with several short waves making their way
west across Alaska over the next several days. This will be
followed by ridging building over Eastern Alaska late next week.
This will lead to near to just below normal temperatures and a
showery pattern in the first half of next week, followed by a
warming and drying late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models verify well aloft. Models show same general pattern
aloft through Wed with slight differences in details. With
precipitation, the GFS and NAM verify much better than the NAM this
morning with the actual areas that showers are occuring. Prefer
the GFS for precip location through Sun, then using a blend of the
GFS/ECMF and NAM for precip areal coverage for Sun night through
Tue.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on all features except
the low north of the Eastern Arctic Coast which is a few mb deeper
and further north than models indicate. Expect this to cause west
winds to be a bit stronger than models indicate over the Ern
Arctic and last into Sun AM.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM and
GFS for temps and clouds. We will use the GFS for precip location
and amounts through Sun, then a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMF for
precip areal coverage for Sun night through Tue. Will use NAM for
winds but keep winds over the Ern Arctic westerly 10-15kt into
Sun AM.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Chicken to Fairbanks
to St Marys will move to Chicken to Tanana to McGrath by 4pm Sun,
then move to Chicken to Circle to Minchumina by 4pm Mon, and along
the ALCAN Border on Tue. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will occur along this trough today, with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated PM thunderstorms along the trough
Sun and Mon, and possibly Tue. Some of the thunderstorms today
will contain small hail and gusty winds. RH will be 25-35% today,
then rise to 30-40% Sun and remain 30-40% into Mon and Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Buckland flooding is receding as per latest satellite imagery,
webcams, and social media reports. The flood warning has been
cancelled.

The breakup front continues to move down the Yukon River with no
reported issues at this time. Ice in the Rampart Canyon is still
solidly in place, so breakup may slow as it moves into that area
this weekend. Ice continues to rot and candle with a limited
amount of large ice to create problems unless the water rises and
picks up stranded ice on the shoreline. Conditions can change
rapidly so go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks or
www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB MAY 21