Brisk Wind Advisory 175, NWS Fairbanks, AK

691 
FZAK52 PAFG 151132
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-160215-
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will remain along the West Coast through
Sun night before weakening Mon.

$$

PKZ200-160215-
Norton Sound-
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-160215-
Dall Point to Wales-
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-160215-
Kotzebue Sound-
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-160215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
332 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 5 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

313 
FZAK52 PAFG 152339
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-161415-
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A thermal low will over the Western Interior of Alaska will move
east on Sun night and Mon. High pressure over the Chukotsk
Peninsula will persist through Tue.

$$

PKZ200-161415-
Norton Sound-
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-161415-
Dall Point to Wales-
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-161415-
Kotzebue Sound-
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-161415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
339 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

927 
FZAK52 PAFG 161303
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-170200-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure will persist over mainland Alaska with a 1006 mb low
in the Interior. High pressure will push S over the Chukotsk
Peninsula and the Gulf of Anadyr today as weak low pressure
persists S of the Bering Strait. 

$$

PKZ200-170200-
Norton Sound-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-170200-
Dall Point to Wales-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-170200-
Kotzebue Sound-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-170200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
503 AM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1
NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

455 
FZAK52 PAFG 162346
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171445-
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 mb low near Nuiqsut will move to near Wainwright as a 1013
mb low by 4pm Mon, then move to 100 NM west of Wainwright as a
1018 mb low by 4pm Tue. A 1016 mb low in the Western Bering Sea 
will move to just south of St Lawrence Is as a 1017 mb by 4pm Mon,
and then move inland of Norton Sound on Tue.

$$

PKZ200-171445-
Norton Sound-
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-171445-
Dall Point to Wales-
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-171445-
Kotzebue Sound-
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-171445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
346 PM AKDT Sun May 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

917 
FZAK52 PAFG 171233
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180200-
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure extends S out of the Arctic over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula to a 1023 mb high in the Southern Bering Sea and will
persist in the area through Wed.

$$

PKZ200-180200-
Norton Sound-
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-180200-
Dall Point to Wales-
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-180200-
Kotzebue Sound-
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-180200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
433 AM AKDT Mon May 17 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of mostly persistence weather as afternoon showers and
an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the southern
Interior and AK Range, Fortymile Uplands, and White Mountains.
Fog and stratus are caked over the North Slope and will remain so
for the next several days. Along the West Coast, mostly dry with
some shower threats over the Yukon Valley. Temperatures remain
seasonal across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Very little change from yesterday as an upper level low remains
over the northeast Arctic, an approximate 550 dam 500 hpa ridge
over the West Coast, and a low over the Gulf of Alaska. A weak
surface thermal trough has almost vanished given the influence of
the upper trough to the north, which has shunted it south to the
AK Range and west to the Yukon Valley. The strong 1040 high over
the Arctic continues to shift east thus weakening the gradient up
along the North Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another nice day for much of the Interior with more afternoon
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, favoring the White
Mountains, Eastern AK Range, and Fortymile Uplands, although a
stray shower is possible in the Tanana Valley and higher terrain
of the Central Interior, as well. Saturday, a low in the Gulf
shifts north and begins to interact with a trough over the
northern half of the state, increasing instability and available
moisture. It looks more active for showers and isolated
thunderstorms over a larger area Saturday, especially over the
Eastern Interior higher terrain. Sunday looks wetter, cooler, and
cloudier as the upper trough continues to retrograde west and
increase the threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Not much change in the weather over the next couple days with the
exception of increasingly blustery north winds into the weekend,
becoming near gale force in gusts over the Capes and immediate
Bering Coast. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms are again
expected over the Yukon Valley and higher terrain, which will then
progress to the Delta by the evening and overnight hours. Saturday
will be similar although there will be a higher coverage of
showers over the Interior as a trough digs south. This trough will
also bring a cooler airmass to the Northwest Arctic Sunday along
with more stable air/less showers.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and fog will be the main issues along the North Slope as
the gradient remains weak through Saturday. The satellite imagery
shows a massive area of this stratus and fog, and it is actually
building as an upper low moves slowly to the west. Expect some
flurries and isolated snow showers to mix in at times. Light
accumulations are possible Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
low entrains moisture from the Gulf of Alaska.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Seasonal temps if not slightly cooler will be occurring as the
extended forecast begins on Monday. A large and slow moving upper
low will still be over the western half of the state with showers
over the eastern half. Cooler more stable air will dominate out
west but will filter east with time. After Tuesday uncertainty
grows but it looks like ensembles and the suite of global models
(besides the outlier GFS) maintain some form of weak upper level
troughing which will keep temps near climatological norms and
diurnal afternoon showers in place.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated over the
next few days. More showers and isolated wet thunderstorms over
the southern Interior today, most active over the Yukon Valley and
Fortymile Uplands/Eastern Alaska Range. Instability is only
slightly higher today so this will not be a big change from
yesterday, but the thermal trough looks to increase in strength
Sunday over the Eastern Interior so expect a better chance for wet
thunderstorms, especially over the Eastern Interior. Otherwise,
temps slowly trend down over the next few days as cooler air moves
in from the north and clouds gradually move in from the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding continues across Buckland as per the latest webcam
imagery from the FAA, although it seems water levels have
declined somewhat from their highs yesterday. However, a flood
warning remains in effect as waters are still high and there is no
further word on the conditions of the ice jam which is causing
the flooding.

There is no current flooding threat at Fort Yukon, but
communities downstream of Fort Yukon to the Yukon River Bridge
should remain vigilant as the water and ice move into the area
over the next couple days. There is quite a bit of stranded ice
that the higher water could pick up and carry downstream. The
River Watch team reported the Koyukuk River as mostly clear with
some running ice and low water levels with no impending flood
threat. Ice in the Rampart Canyon is still solidly in place, so
breakup may slow as it moves into that area this weekend. Ice
continues to rot and candle with a limited amount of large ice to
create problems unless the water rises and picks up stranded ice
on the shoreline.

Conditions can change rapidly so go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks
or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Warning for a portion of AKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

AHSENMACHER MAY 21