Brisk Wind Advisory 174, NWS Fairbanks, AK

722 
FZAK51 PAFG 141130
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-150215-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure near Demarcation Point weakens today. A
second trough of low pressure forms near Cape Lisburne Sat and
strengthens through Sun. High pressure remains in place near Banks
Island.

$$

PKZ225-150215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-150215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ235-150215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-150215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-150215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

783 
FZAK51 PAFG 142129
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-151400-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Low pressure over mainland Alaska has pushed N over the offshore
waters and will persist through Sun. High pressure across the
Central Arctic will slide over the Northern Arctic with the axis
along 78N. 

$$

PKZ225-151400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-151400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-151400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-151400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-151400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
129 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

SYNOPSIS...Significant flooding at Buckland continues, see latest
Warning for information. The ice jam above Circle released and the
Flood Watch has been cancelled. Conditions downstream from Fort
Yukon can change rapidly as the elevated water and ice move
downstream, so residents should remain vigilant until it moves
downstream of their communities. The Arctic will be cloudy with
light snow and areas of fog. The Interior will see a mix of clouds
with isolated thunderstorms and rain showers mainly south of
Galena, Fairbanks, and Eagle. Thunderstorms may produce some small
hail.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term the 13/12Z Solutions are in good agreement,
but the midrange and extended periods are a complete mess, so will
be leaning almost exclusively on the Ensemble means for those
periods. Surface solutions are in good agreement short term as
well, and initialized well at 13/15Z against the local analysis.
Convective numbers not looking good southeast of Fairbanks with
Lifted Index from +1 to -1, and non zero CAPE values, while over
the Lower Yukon Delta and the Middle Yukon Valley they are
marginal, but there is still some potential for widely isolated
activity along the southern edge of the ridging. Thermal trough
has moved to the north slopes of the Alaska Range and will help
with convective development. Today we are using a general blend of
the high resolution solutions for precipitation to better define
the location. Will transition to a blend of the NAM and GFS for
the remainder of the short term. Not a lot of changes expected in
the winds and temperatures, so will make some targeted adjustments
to warm some of the Interior locations a couple degrees, and
increase winds in a couple coastal locations.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the Yukon Territory extends
west over Chicken to a 553 dam high over Buckland. A 551 dam high
is over the Central Beaufort Sea. A 546 dam low has developed over
the Eastern Brooks Range, while a 543 dam low has moved over the
Northern Gulf of Alaska, and a 522 dam low has moved over Adak at
520 dam. The low that was over Chukotka yesterday continues to
ride up the western flank of the ridging and has moved over the
Siberian Arctic. By Friday afternoon the low over the Brooks Range
will move west over Deadhorse at 539 dam, the low that was over
the Gulf will move over the Yukon Territory, and the low near Atka
will be quasi stationary with a shortwave moving around the low
to lie over the southern tip of Kodiak Island, then south. The
high will move over the Southern Chukchi Sea at 550 dam, while the
high over the Beaufort Sea will move over Banks Island at 548
dam. The low that was riding up the western flank of the ridging
will be moving across the northern Arctic along 80N with a
shortwave extending southeast over the Western Arctic. At 850
hpa...Not much change through the weekend as a band of
temperatures between 0C and +4C lies between the ranges.
Temperatures north of the Brooks Range will be in the 0C to -5C
range through Friday, then cool a few degrees as a low aloft pulls
some cooler air south over the northwest coast.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1039 mb high over Banks
Island continues to push west over the Arctic with the axis along
75N. Trough of low pressure has developed over the Arctic Plain
and as the high continues to move southeast, and the axis slides
north, the low pressure will slide north over the near shore
waters. A high over the Chukchi Sea will also be sliding north as
it weakens and will merge with the high pressure extending across
the Arctic. Thermal trough has moved to the north slopes of the
Alaska Range with a 1017 mb low near Dot Lake, and a 1015 mb low
near Whitehorse YT. A 1014 mb low has moved into the Central Gulf
of Alaska. A bubble high has developed over the Copper River Basin
at 1020 mb. Low in the Bering Sea is 150 nm north of Atka with a
front extending southeast over Dutch Harbor this afternoon. There
will not be a lot of change through Friday afternoon as high
pressure remains across the Arctic, the Thermal Trough remains
along the north slopes of the Alaska Range with a 1010 mb low near
Chicken, and high pressure will be pushing northwest over Prince
William Sound because the low in the Gulf will weaken and merge
with the lower pressure to the west, and a 1007 mb low will
develop Friday afternoon near Kodiak Island. The low near Atka
will remain stationary with a trough extending northeast over the
Kuskokwim Basin.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, fog, flurries, blowing
snow, spring in the Arctic. Northeast to east winds along and
near the coast at 15 to 25 mph for most locations will slowly
diminish overnight. Large open lead north of MacKenzie Bay
continues to provide a good moisture source for fog along the
coast. Inland variable winds to 10 mph. Temperatures will remain
cool along the coast, but will be warming to with highs in the
20s to lower 30s, and lows in the teens to mid 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some isolated thunderstorms and
showers in the Upper Kuskokwim Basin, and south of Galena in the
Middle Yukon Valley and Lower Yukon Delta. Patchy fog along the
coast near open leads in the ice. High temperatures in the upper
30s to mid 50s, while lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s for
most areas. Warmest temperature inland from Galena south.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated Thunderstorms and rain
showers mainly south of Fairbanks and Eagle today and Friday.
Winds variable to 10 mph. High temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s
this evening and Friday, then around 5 degrees cooler this
weekend. Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Snow showers will continue in
the Arctic through Monday night, then some clearing Tuesday. A
series of lows moving into the Gulf of Alaska will send fronts
and moisture into the Interior. The thermal trough will be over
the Fortymile Country and that will enhance Thunderstorm and
rain shower activity in the area. The remainder of the interior
will see isolated thunderstorms and rain showers. The Thermal
trough will move back north and west through mid week with
increased afternoon and evening thunderstorm and rain shower
activity in the Interior. The West Coast will remain relatively
quiet with some showers in the Lower Yukon Delta late in the week.
The coastal areas can expect some periods of fog and low
visibility, especially near open leads in the ice. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler at the beginning of the extended period,
then warm slowly.

&&

.Fire Weather...Remains quiet with some very isolated
thunderstorms possible southwest and southeast of Fairbanks this
evening. Scattered thunderstorms possible Friday in the Upper
Tanana Valley south of Chicken with some isolated thunderstorms
south of Fairbanks to the Alaska Range. Thermal trough is south
of Fairbanks and will remain along the north slopes of the Alaska
Range through the weekend. Relative Humidity values in the upper
20s to mid 30s today and Friday, then rising into the 30s and 40s
for the weekend. Overnight recovery will be good through the
weekend. High temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s today and
Friday, cooling a few degrees for the weekend with highs in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.Hydrology...Buckland flooding continues as ice jam downstream is
holding. Emergency Managers and Webcams indicate extensive
flooding in the area. Ice jam above Circle released and water and
ice are flowing downstream. No current flooding threat at Fort
Yukon, but communities downstream of Fort Yukon to the Yukon River
Bridge should remain vigilant as the water and ice move into the
area over the next couple days. There is quite a bit of stranded
ice that the higher water could pick up and carry downstream. The
River Watch team reported the Koyukuk River as mostly clear with
some running ice and low water levels with no impending flood
threat. Ice in the Rampart Canyon is still solidly in place, so
breakup may slow as it moves into that area this weekend. Ice
continues to rot and candle with a limited amount of large ice to
create problems unless the water rises and picks up stranded ice
on the shoreline. Conditions can change rapidly so go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Warning for a portion of AKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
846 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

AKZ220-140000-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
846 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

... High Water Moving Down the Yukon River from Circle....

The ice jam at Circle released at 1 am this morning. Water is
moving down the river. It is expected to arrive at Fort Yukon in
the early afternoon. Rapid water rises and ice flows should be
expected through out the day.

For more information please go to www.weather.gov/afg or
www.weather.gov/aprfc