Brisk Wind Advisory 172, NWS Fairbanks, AK

029 
FZAK51 PAFG 121330
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130230-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure associated with a 1036 mb high about 315 nm north 
of Deadhorse is pushing S over the Arctic Coast and Plain, while 
a trough of low pressure lies E to W between the ranges. The high 
in the Arctic will move SE to 250 nm NE of Demarcations Pt by 
Thursday morning while low pressure remains over Interior Alaska.

$$

PKZ225-130230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 5 kt. 
.THU...S winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-130230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-130230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-130230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-130230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
530 AM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

931 
FZAK51 PAFG 122233
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131400-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure associated with a 1038 mb high 300 nm N of 
Demarcation Point extends SW over the Arctic Coast and nearshore
waters. As the high moves to Banks Island Thu a trough will
develop over the Arctic Plain. The trough will move over the Coast
Thu night as high pressure holds on over the offshore waters.  

$$

PKZ225-131400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-131400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-131400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt except east winds 25 kt W of Utqiagvik
this evening. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-131400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-131400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
233 PM AKDT Wed May 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

414 
FZAK51 PAFG 131027
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140215-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1038 mb high 300 nm N of Demarcation Point extends SW over the 
Arctic Coast and nearshore waters. A trough over the the Arctic 
Plain from Deadhorse east weakens tonight. Another trough forms
over Cape Lisburne Fri.

$$

PKZ225-140215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TODAY...S winds 5 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-140215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ235-140215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-140215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-140215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
227 AM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

125 
FZAK51 PAFG 132200
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-141400-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1038 mb high is over Banks Island with high pressure extending
W across the Central Arctic. A trough of low pressure over the
Arctic Plain will slide N over nearshore waters. High pressure
will slide N with a 1027 mb high developing 500 nm N of Utqiagvik,
as low pressure over the nearshore waters pushes N over the
offshore waters.

$$

PKZ225-141400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-141400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ235-141400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-141400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-141400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
200 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

722 
FZAK51 PAFG 141130
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-150215-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure near Demarcation Point weakens today. A
second trough of low pressure forms near Cape Lisburne Sat and
strengthens through Sun. High pressure remains in place near Banks
Island.

$$

PKZ225-150215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-150215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ235-150215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-150215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-150215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
330 AM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Tue May 11 2021

SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers, mainly south and east
of the Yukon River with the heaviest rainfall expected southeast
of Fairbanks. Snow is possible above 3000 feet along the Taylor
and Richardson Highways, and may impact travel in those areas. The
West Coast looks to be mainly dry with northeast to east winds,
while the Arctic will remain cloudy with areas of fog, flurries,
and blowing snow into at least Wednesday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...11/12Z Solutions are in good agreement through the
extended periods in the Arctic, to the west over the Bering Sea
they go awry in the midrange. Surface solutions are in good
agreement, and initialized well against the 11/15Z surface
analysis. Convective numbers are not very impressive today and
Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday there are areas of Lifted Index
from +1 to -1, and non zero CAPE values which is usually a recipe
for some isolated thunderstorm activity. Will be using a blend of
the high resolution models for precipitation early in the
forecast periods to better target the location of the
precipitation, then transition to a general blend. The remainder
of the forecast will be using just a general blend including the
current database to maintain continuity.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the northern half of the state
extends from Northern British Columbia over the Yukon Territory,
then from Eagle over Tanana to a 551 dam high over Kotzebue Sound.
A 542 dam low has moved over Kodiak Island and a 546 dam low is
over the Eastern Brooks Range. By Wednesday the low over Kodiak
will move over the Gulf of Alaska at 544 dam, and the low over the
Brooks Range will move over the AlCan Border just north of Eagle,
while a 547 dam low will develop over Deadhorse. Ridging over the
state will extend from Dawson YT to a 552 dam high over Galena.
Ridging to the West will also extend south over Cape Newenham, and
north over Wainwright, then northeast to a 551 dam high 200 nm
north of Kaktovik. A weak shortwave will move up the western flank
of the ridging to the west. Thursday afternoon ridging will be
holding over the southern Interior extending west to a 553 dam
high over Koyuk, and ridging will extend north from the high over
Point Lay and the Central Arctic, and southeast over McGrath. The
low over the Gulf of Alaska will slide over the Northern Gulf,
while the low over Deadhorse will strengthen to 545 dam as heights
fall as it moves over Kaktovik. A 522 dam low will move over the
Southern Bering Sea near the Dateline with a shortwave moving over
Bristol Bay Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is
pushing west across the Interior between the ranges and will
continue to do so through the week. Temperatures over the Chukchi
Sea region, and the Brooks Range north will be in the 0C to -5C
range.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1033 mb high 400 nm
north of Utqiagvik is pushing south over the Arctic coast and
Plains, while a trough of low pressure lies east to west between
the ranges with a 1011 mb low near Fairbanks, a 1012 mb low near
Eagle, and a 1011 mb low near Mayo YT. The high in the Arctic will
move southeast to 200 nm north of Demarcations Point by Wednesday
afternoon with a 1022 mb high developing in Kotzebue Sound, and a
weak 1021 mb high over Sleetmute. Low pressure will remain across
the Interior with the thermal trough extending from Chicken to
Huslia. By Thursday afternoon the high in the Arctic will be near
Banks Island at 1038 mb, with a small axis pushing into the Upper
Yukon Flats. Low pressure will develop over the Arctic Plain with
a 1019 low near Umiat, and low pressure will continue between the
ranges, but mainly south of the Yukon River with a 1015 mb low
near Northway, and a 1016 mb low near Galena.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low clouds, fog, flurries, and
blowing snow will continue tonight. There may be some Wednesday
night into Thursday, but more than likely only in the Plains.
Northeast to east winds continue along and near the coast at 10 to
20 mph for most locations. Inland winds northeast to 10 mph.
Temperatures will remain cool, but will be warming by the end of
the week to near climatological normals for May with highs in the
mid to upper 20s, and lows in the teens to lower 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some isolated rain showers from
the Seward Peninsula south, but generally quiet weather across
the area this week. Winds along the coast will be moving from
southwest to northwest at 5 to 20 mph, back to southwest. Inland
winds will be variable to 10 mph. High temperatures in the upper
30s to around 50, while lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s for
most areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy with mainly
rain showers south and east of Fairbanks tonight through most of
Wednesday. Snow is expected above 3000 feet and may impact travel
along the Taylor and Richardson Highways. From Fairbanks northwest
expect some scattered rain showers. Winds variable to 10 mph.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler overnight and Wednesday with
the rain showers, but will warm slowly starting Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A system developing over the
Arctic will bring showers to the area for most of the extended
period. A front will move north into the southern Interior
Saturday with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. As
the front moves out seasonal showers and isolated thunderstorms
can be expected during the afternoon hours Sunday through Tuesday.
The West Coast will remain quiet with some isolated showers from
the Seward Peninsula south. Temperatures will be near
Climatological normals for mid May.

&&

.Fire Weather...Wetting rains expected south and east of Fairbanks
tonight and Wednesday with showers expected south of the Yukon
River for the rest of the Interior. Relative Humidity values
a bit higher Wednesday as they only fall into the upper 30s and
40s. Temperatures will be a degree or so cooler tonight as they
fall into the 30s to around 40 range, with highs tomorrow only
rising into the 40s in the Upper Yukon Flats, and 50s elsewhere.
Temperatures will slowly warm the remainder of the week as we
continue the transition into our showery late spring/early summer
pattern. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Wednesday,
but this early in the season would not be surprised by a few
strikes.

&&

.Hydrology...Breakup continues. The Breakup Front on the Yukon
River is passing through Circle today and will be making its way
to Fort Yukon by late Wednesday. Ice conditions are such that it
may just pass right through, but residents should keep a close
watch on the river as conditions can change rapidly and the river
can rise fast if a jam occurs downstream. The Breakup Front on the
Koyukuk River went past Bettles overnight and will be moving into
the Allakaket area by late Wednesday or Thursday unless a jam
forms. Ice continues to rot in place, but ice in the Rampart
Canyon is still solidly in place, so breakup may slow as it moves
into that area later this week. The ice is candling as it rots in
place and breaking once it starts moving downstream, so only
a limited amount of large chunks of ice are available to get
jammed up. Conditions can change rapidly so go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch for AKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 21