Brisk Wind Advisory 164, NWS Fairbanks, AK

560 
FZAK51 PAFG 281155
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-290215-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1008 mb low near Point Lay this morning will push east to near Umiat
this evening. The low will move to 100 nm N of Oliktok Point by 
Thu morning with low pressure extending NW across the Arctic.

$$

PKZ225-290215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-290215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt becoming N. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-290215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-290215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-290215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
355 AM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

678 
FZAK51 PAFG 282207
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-291400-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 mb low is over the Central Brooks Range with low pressure
extending NW over Utqiagvik and the Arctic. Weak high pressure is
holding on over the NE Arctic and and the Dateline. Little change
is expected through Sat.

$$

PKZ225-291400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-291400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-291400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-291400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-291400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
207 PM AKDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Apr 21

304 
FZAK51 PAFG 291022
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-300215-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 2021 mb high pressure will remain in place over the northwestern
Bering Sea while weak low pressure over the Alaska Interior 
weakens in place through Friday.

$$

PKZ225-300215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-300215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-300215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-300215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 5 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-300215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
222 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 PM AKDT Tue Apr 27 2021

SYNOPSIS...Temperatures cooling as some cooler air filters in
from the northwest. A front moving to the West Coast will bring
some snow showers to the area, then spread a mix of rain and snow
showers to the Western Interior, and snow to the Western and
Central Arctic Thursday. The front will slowly work its way into
the Central and Eastern Interior spreading a mix of showers into
the area Friday. Dry conditions will continue in the Southeast
Interior through Thursday, but winds will be diminishing. Small
ice jams being reported on some of the rivers with no impacts at
this time, but as breakup continues things can change rapidly so
for the latest updates go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks,
mobile.weather.gov, or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
Warnings, Advisories, and forecasts.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Solutions from the 27/12Z run are in good agreement in
the development of trough over the state as a low moves north out
of the Pacific and a low drops southeast out of the Siberian
Arctic and they merge over the Western Interior. Some weak ridging
hangs on over the AlCan through the week. Solutions remain in good
to fair agreement through Friday night before  Continuity and
consistency continues through the midrange, with some differences
in how they handle the breaking down of the ridge beyond 102
hours. As the pattern continues a quiet period of weather a
general blend of the solutions will be utilized for most elements.
The exception will be temperatures, where we will maintain
continuity with only some minor tweaks to accommodate some local
differences. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than
climatological normals across most of the forecast area into the
weekend.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A weak trough and low have moved over the
Central and Eastern Interior this afternoon and the low will
slowly drift southeast with the low over Fairbanks Wednesday
morning at 538 dam. Ridging pushing northeast over the Western
Interior will be pushed south as a 525 dam low moves from Wrangel
Island to Point Hope Wednesday morning, and over Buckland by
Thursday morning. The associated trough will move over the
Western Capes Wednesday and by Thursday morning it will lie from
Buckland to Kuskokwim Bay. Weak troughing will also extend east
from the low over the Brooks Range. A 534 dam low will develop
over MacKenzie Bay Wednesday night and move northwest into the
Arctic to 150 nm north of Oliktok Point. A low moving out of the
Northeast Pacific will move to 500 nm south of Seward Thursday
morning as the low over the Interior fills and dissipates. As the
low over the West Coast continues to move south the low in the
Northeast Pacific will move north and Thursday night the lows will
merge as the low over the West Coast moves over Buckland at 518
dam. Weak ridging will persist over the AlCan Thursday, then is
pushed to the east as the trough over the West Coast moves to lie
from the low over Galena to Homer. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is
south of the Alaska Range then extends from Russian Mission to
Kivalina then west with the warmer temperatures to the southwest.
As the low and trough move to the West Coast cooler air will be
wrapping around the low aloft with temperature near -10C pushing
south to the Bering Strait Wednesday and Thursday, and over the
Northwest Interior and Arctic by Friday morning.

Surface...High pressure continues to push in from the east, but is
weakening. The tight pressure gradient in the southeast Interior
will be relaxing through the evening with winds diminishing. A
front approaching the West Coast will move into the area this
evening spreading some snow to the Chukchi Sea Coast, Bering
Strait, and Northwest Interior tonight through at least Thursday
morning. Snowfall amounts up to 5 inches are expected from the
Seward Peninsula North and east into the Upper Kobuk and Middle
Koyukuk through Thursday morning. Wednesday morning there will be
a 1006 mb low near Point Lay and a 1008 mb low near Golovin with
the front extending east over the Arctic Plain, and south to the
Lower Yukon Delta. High pressure will continue to push west over
the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range with a 1017 mb high
near Arctic Village. An inverted trough will extend northeast
from Denali to Old Crow YT. in the Interior. By Wednesday night
a broad area of low pressure will be over most of the forecast
area with a 1001 mb low near Fairbanks, a 1001 mb low near
Minchumina, and a 1002 mb low near Umiat. High pressure will be
hanging on over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds with some patchy
fog overnight. Front moving to the northwest coast will bring some
snow showers to the area, mainly west of Wainwright. Winds
generally less than 15 mph will be swinging around to north and
northeast by Wednesday morning. Temperatures cooler, but highs
still in the teens and 20s, while lows will be in the single
digits to lower teens above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Increasing clouds, mainly north
of the Lower Yukon Delta with some snow showers moving into the
area Wednesday morning. The lower Yukon Delta and Middle Yukon
Valley will see increasing clouds Wednesday with a slight chance
of showers on Thursday. Snowfall amounts through Friday up to 5
inches from the Seward Peninsula north to the Brooks Range.
Temperatures cooling with highs in the 20s and 30s, and lows in
the teens to lower 20s. Winds variable to 10 mph becoming
northwest as the front moves into the area and increasing to 10 to
20 mph along the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally cloudy, then some
clearing overnight for most areas. Temperatures cooler with lows
falling to the teens and lower 20s, with highs in the 40s and
50s. Gusty southeast winds around Delta Junction at 25 mph gusting
to 40 mph will be diminishing this afternoon and evening to 10 to
15 mph. The remainder of the area will have variable winds to 10
mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A mix of clouds with some
isolated showers for the Central and Eastern Interior, and the
Eastern Arctic Saturday. then some clearing Saturday night and
Sunday. The troughing will slide west of the state with ridging
moving over the eastern half of the state Sunday. Snow showers
along the West Coast as cooler air is wrapped around the low aloft
over the area through Tuesday. The Interior will be slowly warming
as ridging aloft will move over the area. Thermal trough
development is possible with some isolated showers early next
week.

&&

.Fire Weather...Temperatures cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s
in the Interior. Relative Humidity values will remain low through
Wednesday, in the 20 to 30 percent range with fair overnight
recovery tonight, but will only fall into the 30 to 45 percent
range Thursday with better recovery Thursday night. Winds in the
Southeast Interior are gusty this afternoon, but will be
diminishing this evening. Winds pick up around Delta Junction
Friday to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, and Relative Humidity values
will be falling into the 20 percent range. No Wetting rains
expected, but there is a chance of showers Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...Many streams and creeks are running high, but
currently no flooding issues. Some minor ice dams have been
reported, most notable on the Chena River near the Illinois Street
Bridge, but with no impacts at this time. The cooler afternoon
temperatures the next couple days will help slow breakup and allow
meltwater to make it into the mainstem rivers. River Ice will
continue to break down faster than lake ice, but extreme caution
should be used around all bodies of water. Most of the Fortymile
river has cleared and the ice has moved into the Yukon River. For
the latest forecasts and river products go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240.

&&

SDB APR 21