Brisk Wind Advisory 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

799 
FZAK51 PAFG 111003
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-120215-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure will form near Cape Lisburne through
today and then shift east along the North Slope through Mon before
weakening Mon night.

$$

PKZ225-120215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-120215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-120215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-120215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 5 kt becoming E 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-120215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
203 AM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 5 kt becoming E 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

225 
FZAK51 PAFG 112305
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121415-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure near Cape Lisburne will shift east along
the North Slope through Mon before weakening Mon night.

$$

PKZ225-121415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Snow.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-121415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-121415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-121415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-121415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
305 PM AKDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Apr 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold and unusual temps for April inhabit the Eastern
Interior this morning, with this morning the coldest of the cold
snap. Cold high pressure is being left in the wake of the deep
arctic trough over the rest of the Interior and North Slope, with
a front moving into the YK Delta this morning, as well as Saint
Lawrence Island. This front will bring snow and blowing snow to
the entire West Coast and the Western Interior through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 497 dam upper level arctic low anchoring the flow over
the eastern half of the state, located approximately 600 miles
north of Barter Island. A deep arctic trough is digging southeast
across the ALCAN, with this feature being responsible for the
record low temps recently. 850 temps aloft remain bitterly cold,
with widespread -25C values across a wide swath of the INterior.
Out west, a broad low encompasses the Bering Sea with a warm front
moving into the YK Delta. This low will gradually shift east the
next couple days as the front moves inland into the West Coast and
as far east as the Central Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Bitter cold temps this morning will be the last as the arctic air
shifts east, and clouds begin to move in along with warming temps
aloft. This will push the region closer to normal by Sunday. Snow
will also move into the Central Interior and north through the
Upper Koyukuk. Expect a swath of 2-3" with up to 4-6" in the Upper
Koyukuk, along with blowing and drifting snow with breezy east
winds, which will impact travel along the Dalton north of
Livengood. Snow will linger all the way into Monday for the
Eastern Brooks and Upper Koyukuk. With this front, winds will
abruptly change to a chinook gap wind with gusts likely into the
65 mph through the AK Range, beginning on on Saturday night and
blowing all the way into Monday. Temps by Monday may be
approaching 50 over some locations near the AK Range. Either way,
a big change is coming for the Interior after this abrupt cold
snap and recent snow storm.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow and blowing snow have commenced across the Yukon Delta and
Saint Lawrence Island as the leading front moves east. This first
front will stall as it moves northeast with it weakening late this
afternoon/evening. However, a much stronger front associated with
a shortwave trough rounding the base of the larger Bering low will
shift into the SW Coast and Western Interior Saturday night
through Sunday night, bringing heavy snow and areas of blowing
snow. Winds are likely to be below blizzard criteria from the
Seward Peninsula north, so this forecast package plans to issue
advisories, and will upgrade heavy snow watches to warnings for
the Interior. Lighter snow will move all the way to the Brooks
Range, with periodic snow showers lasting into Tuesday, with some
mixed rain across the Lower Yukon/Delta possible by Sunday as
warmer air moves into those regions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Continued very cold temps will gradually moderate through the
weekend, with snow moving across the Brooks Range Sunday through
Monday with light snow accumulations, and some possible minor
blowing snow along the Arctic Coast. Southerly gap winds will
increase through the Brooks Range as this front moves through, so
some blowing and drifting snow is likely there, as well, with
gusts to 30 mph.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Tuesday, there will a
continuation of the pattern of a large trough out west and strong
southerly flow aloft over the Eastern Interior. Expect warm temps
and southerly AK Range gap winds to last through midweek with
showery conditions over the West Coast and Interior into the North
Slope. After that, it is about clear as mud as the models diverge
dramatically, with the GFS bringing in a deep trough and the ECMWF
bringing in insane 570 heights and a massive warm up Fri and
beyond. The current forecast will favor the WPC ensemble blend
which favors a middle ground and broad zonal flow, which would not
be close to climo.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch for AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ217.

Wind Advisory for AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ219.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220.

&&

AHSENMACHER APR 21