Brisk Wind Advisory 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

880 
FZAK51 PAFG 102323
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-111530-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong surface gradient across the Bering Sea coast will
continue to strengthen through Monday. A 1028 mb Arctic High will
move south and will weaken to 1025 mb by Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-111530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-111530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-111530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-111530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-111530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
223 PM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PROTON Jan 21

715 
FZAK51 PAFG 111141
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-120315-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the high Arctic will slowly move south toward
the coast through Wed. A strong area of low pressure will remain 
over the southern Brooks Range.

$$

PKZ225-120315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 40 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-120315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 35 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-120315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-120315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-120315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
241 AM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

323 
FZAK51 PAFG 112308
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121515-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the high Arctic will slowly move south toward
the coast through Wed. An area of low pressure will remain over 
the southern Brooks Range.

$$

PKZ225-121515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 40 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-121515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-121515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-121515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-121515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
208 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20kt increasing to 35 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridging over the Canadian Rockies and the eastern
interior combined with a large complex of low pressure over the
Gulf of Alaska will maintain south-southeast flow over the
interior. The complex of lows to the south will continue to keep
the cool northerly flow over the Bering and Chukchi Sea.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 210 kt jet is screaming across the North Pacific today pushing
into a stubborn Canadian Rockies upper ridge. This is keeping the
eastern interior under the influence of the upper ridge with
weakening southerly flow aloft. On Sunday afternoon the ridge is
nudged a bit further east for weaker southeast flow over the
Alaska and Brooks range for the interior and the upper low complex
over the southwestern Gulf of Alaska will continue northerly flow
through the Bering Strait and west coasts. On Monday and into
Tuesday the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska drifts north and
puts the eastern interior more into a easterly wave pattern and
northerly flow continues for the Bering Strait and west coast.

Model Discussion...
The 12Z model suite resolves the hemispheric and synoptic patterns
in similar fashion with the low pressure complex fusing over the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska and upper ridging being displaced from
the Canadian Rockies off to the east. The issues to be resolved
will be mesoscale features in the form of easterly waves moving
into the interior spawned from the system to the south and long
term continued north winds through the Bering Strait region. It
looks like an ensemble approach or chef's choice approach to the
forecast for the details today. Main issues will be wind in the
Bering Strait region, local winds through the Alaska range passes,
and light snowfall, if any, in the eastern interior Sunday night
into Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong winds through the Alaska range should continue the slow
trend downwards. The region will continue with above normal
temperatures through the period with higher elevations on a warmer
side than valley locations with the strong inversion holding on
in most low land areas. The wind will mainly pull back and drop
below advisory criteria for the period however any slight
readjustment of the upper levels could spring a situation or two
in the period where wind advisory conditions could be warranted.
The light snow problem is a with a easterly wave moving through
the region late on Sunday and into Monday. Took a good look at the
isentropic layers for the period. Models have different timings,
however bring the same story. The main take away is that in the
snow production zone -8c to -15c or 280k-300k layer the upglide of
moisture is not favorable for snow however mainly cloud
production. As the waves moves north to northwest some upglide
occurs and a chance of light snow is warranted north of Fairbanks
on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The pattern will continue to hold keeping the northerly flow going
for windy conditions for the region for the period along the coast
and over open waters, and in the interior lighter however still
northerly flow regime is instore for the region. Mostly dry
through the period with only limited chance of snow on late Monday
and Tuesday as the waves move around the upper low situated to the
south of the region.

North Slope and Arctic Coast...
Southerly flow continues across the Slope lasting into Sunday when
a wave shots through in the lower levels of the atmosphere and
ridging continues aloft. This should limit any snowfall to the
light category on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday the eastern slope
will have the influence of lower atmospheric waves moving through
however mainly very light snowfall at best. Main element to
remark about that the southern component of the wind will shift
into the more seasonal northeast direction and remain for the
remainder of the period enhancing more stratus typical north slope
issues.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Generally quiet Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures not really
straying far from the warmer temperatures already experienced.
Right now, models think the Interior will remain dry into next
weekend with snow for the West Coast, Western Interior, and North
Slope near mid-week as a couple of shortwave troughs move from
the Y-K Delta region to the Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

PROTON JAN 21