Brisk Wind Advisory 117, NWS Fairbanks, AK

874 
FZAK52 PAFG 192256
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-201430-
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad 978 mb low will remain in the western Bering through
Friday. A 988 mb low will move into Bristol Bay Friday evening. 
These lows will track eastward on Saturday. North of the Bering 
Strait a 1025mb high pressure will move east across the high 
Arctic.

$$

PKZ200-201430-
Norton Sound-
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-201430-
Dall Point to Wales-
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-201430-
Kotzebue Sound-
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-201430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
256 PM AKDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

666 
FZAK52 PAFG 201154
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-210215-
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 mb low in the western Bering will move
east today and weaken. A weak 1000 mb low will move inland over
the Yukon Delta today and weaken to 1004 mb. Weak troughing will
persist over the west coast on Sunday. A 1025mb high pressure 
will move east across the high Arctic and strengthen to 1030 mb on
Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-210215-
Norton Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 35 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-210215-
Dall Point to Wales-
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 40 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-210215-
Kotzebue Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-210215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
354 AM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 40 kt. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

179 
FZAK52 PAFG 202222
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211445-
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 998mb low pressure will move inland near Yukon-Delta this
evening and continue to weaken. Weak troughing will persist over 
the west coast on Sunday. A 1025mb high pressure will move east 
across the high Arctic and strengthen to 1030 mb on Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-211445-
Norton Sound-
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Snow.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-211445-
Dall Point to Wales-
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Snow.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-211445-
Kotzebue Sound-
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-211445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
222 PM AKDT Sat Mar 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Snow.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet weather across the area over the next few days. Light
snow will continue across the eastern Interior this evening;
however, accumulation, if any, will be minimal. Gusty northerly
winds are expected near passes in the Alaska Range into Friday
morning. The Arctic Coast will see low ceilings and fog at times
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 18/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when
compared to observational data in terms of the placement of the
synoptic scale features. Looking at surface observations, it does
not seem that any of the models are handling the snow over the
Interior very well. We made a lot of hand edits to the PoP grids
because of this; however, they were mainly based on a starting
point of a blend of the GFS and the SREF.

Aloft, at 500 mb, A trough is in place over the eastern Arctic
Coast and the eastern Interior. A ridge is place over the eastern
Bering Sea, with a trough over eastern Russia. The ridge will push
east over the West Coast of Alaska on Friday; which will
strengthen the omega blocking pattern. We expect this omega block
to remain in place into the weekend. Sunday night, the trough
over eastern Russia will move over the west coast of Alaska
causing the ridge to push east the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
We will continue to see light snow over the eastern Interior at
times into Friday morning, mainly in areas southeast of
Fairbanks. Accumulation of snow, if any will be minimal. A
surface low over south central Alaska will help to tighten up the
pressure gradient across the Alaska Range into early Friday.
Gusts up to 40 mph are possible south of Black Rapids in Isabel
Pass this evening. Winds will begin to die back down after
midnight tonight. At the moment, we are not anticipating any
precipitation over the Interior from late Friday through the
weekend. With the upper trough in place over the eastern Interior,
temperatures will be below climatological normal through the
weekend. Lows will generally be in the teens to single digits
below zero, with highs in the single digits to teens above zero.
The pressure gradient over the Interior will tighten up on
Saturday. As a low moves into the Bering Sea and high pressure
builds over the Arctic and the northern Yukon Territory. This will
cause east to northeasterly winds to pick up across the Interior,
especially over summits and areas that typically channeled
easterly winds.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low ceilings and fog will be seen at times this evening across the
Arctic Coast. Winds around 30 mph will also bring some blowing
snow to Barter Island this evening. A shortwave moving to the
south will bring snow to the Beaufort Sea Coast late tonight;
however, this system will pass through quickly and little to no
snow accumulation is expected. A ridge will build over the area on
Friday, which should help to keep the weather relatively quiet,
although through the weekend there could see some fog and low
ceilings at times, especially near open leads in the ice.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Some patchy fog will remain around Kotzebue Sound this evening. Lingering
snow in the Western Interior will slowly dissipate this evening as
surface high pressure begins to build in from the north.
Conditions will remain quiet going into tomorrow before increasing
east winds along St. Lawrence Island due to a strong surface low
that moves into the Bering Sea. Temperatures remaining below
normal, but will be trending warmer going into the weekend.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
A weather system looks to bring a bit of snow to the west coast
on Monday. There is the potential for a stronger system to reach
St. Lawrence Island on Tuesday and the West Coast late Tuesday
night. The models are hinting that this system will push east
across the forecast area next Wednesday and Thursday; however, at
the moment there is still a lot of uncertainty in the details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
&&

MAR 21