Brisk Wind Advisory 114, NWS Fairbanks, AK

292 
FZAK52 PAFG 162143
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171430-
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1007 mb low will move to St. Lawrence Island by Tue PM and to 
Eastern Norton Sound at 997 mb by Wed AM. High pressure will 
build over the Chukotka Peninsula and push SE on Wed and Thu as 
the low moves east.

$$

PKZ200-171430-
Norton Sound-
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt becoming S 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-171430-
Dall Point to Wales-
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt becoming NW. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-171430-
Kotzebue Sound-
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-171430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
143 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.WED...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

465 
FZAK52 PAFG 171229
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180230-
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low in Norton Sound will move east to eastern Norton
Sound as a 1001 mb low by this afternoon. A 1028 mb high over
Siberia will build over the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering
Strait going into Thu PM.

$$

PKZ200-180230-
Norton Sound-
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-180230-
Dall Point to Wales-
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-180230-
Kotzebue Sound-
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-180230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
429 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

997 
FZAK52 PAFG 172157
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181400-
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure over Chukotka is pushing SE across the area as a 999
mb low in Norton Sound moves inland and dissipates tonight. By Thu
evening a 1023 mb high will be over the Chukotsk Peninsula as the
high pressure weakens and is being pushed N by a broad area of low
pressure around a 983 mb low in the Western Bering Sea. 

$$

PKZ200-181400-
Norton Sound-
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-181400-
Dall Point to Wales-
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-181400-
Kotzebue Sound-
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 
NM or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-181400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
157 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering 
Strait. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait. 
Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

SDB Mar 21

649 
FZAK52 PAFG 181215
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190230-
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Pressure gradient will loosen through the day today north of the 
Bering Strait. A broad 984 mb low west of the Aleutian chain will
spin off two separate low pressure systems. A 987 mb low will be 
located NNW of Adak Station and a 984 mb low NW of Attu Station 
this evening. This complex of lows will travel eastward towards
the weekend.

$$

PKZ200-190230-
Norton Sound-
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-190230-
Dall Point to Wales-
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-190230-
Kotzebue Sound-
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-190230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
415 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
140 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

SYNOPSIS...Milder north of the Alaska Range, though some smaller
weather systems will bring some gusty winds to the Arctic Coast
along with some blowing snow at times. A few flurries in the
Interior, otherwise pretty quiet. Along the West Coast increasing
clouds as a system moving southeast out of Siberia will spread up
to 2 inches of snow to the area Tuesday and Wednesday before it
falls apart in the Western Interior.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 15/12Z solutions are in good agreement as they
develop broad troughing over the state with ridging over the
Arctic. Westerly flow will dominate through the week over the
southwest mainland and south of the Alaska Range as a closed low
aloft sets up over the Central Interior. Solutions are handling
the strong shortwave diving into the trough well, and the surface
solutions are similar in the rapid development of a low in the
Gulf of Anadyr and its move to Norton Sound by Wednesday morning,
and its demise as it moves into the Western Interior Wednesday
night. Will be using a blend of the solutions today while tweaking
the temperatures and winds up a bit in most cases.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad troughing developing over the state
with a 510 dam low over Mcgrath, and a 512 dam low over Bristol
Bay this afternoon. A 502 dam low over the Northwest Territories
will move west over the Eastern Brooks Range by Tuesday morning.
Ridging will persist over the Arctic as a 531 dam high near 80N
drifts toward the North Pole. Troughing over the Siberian Arctic
extends southeast over Wrangel Island and the Western Chukchi Sea.
Tuesday morning the lows over the state will start to merge, and
a 503 dam low will develop in the trough to the west 200 nm
southwest of Wrangel Island, as weak ridging pushes northeast from
the Central Bering Sea over the Bering Strait by Wednesday
morning the high in the Arctic will be over the North Pole, while
troughing will persist over mainland Alaska as the low over the
Brooks Range remains stationary, and a weak low that was over
Southcentral Alaska redevelops over the Northern Gulf of Alaska as
it merges with a low moving north into the area. The low near
Wrangel Island will move southeast over the Seward Peninsula
Wednesday morning, and by Wednesday afternoon they will all merge
over the Interior as a 502 dam low over Beaver. At 850 hpa...A
pocket of -20C temperatures continues to hang over the Eastern
Brooks Range, as the remainder of the area will have -10C to -20C
temperatures over the area. As the upper level low moves to the
Brooks Range it will push those colder temperatures south and
west, while the low over the Siberian Arctic will also push some
colder temperatures to the West Coast. By Thursday morning the
cold will merge with the -20C isotherm lying from Dawson YT to
Nenana to Nome to Gambell.

Surface...A low that developed in the trough over the Arctic
Coast will continue to slip west and weaken. High pressure will
persist over the Arctic with a 1023 mb high 600 nm north of
Utqiagvik. The trough over the Arctic Coast extends east to the
Northwest Territories. Weak flow will persist over the state with
high pressure over the Upper Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley while a
low persists in the Gulf of Alaska. A 998 mb low in the Northern
Gulf of Alaska will persist as it weakens to 1003 mb by Tuesday
morning. High pressure will push north over the Bering Strait and
Seward Peninsula tonight. A rapidly developing low will move out
of the Gulf of Anadyr southeast to St Lawrence Island by Tuesday
evening at 1002 mb, while high pressure persists over Interior
Alaska, and troughing remains in the Arctic Plains and Brooks
Range. The low in the Gulf of Alaska will weaken and merge with a
low moving north along the Southeast Panhandle Coast Tuesday
morning. As the low moves into the West Coast it will weaken
rapidly and merge with the low that will be moving into the
northeast Gulf. The northeast gulf low will move northeast into
the Yukon Territory while a 998 mb low will develop in Prince
William Sound Wednesday afternoon, and the decaying west coast low
merges with it.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low that developed in the
trough over the coast is moving west and will weaken this evening
and dissipate. Until then some gusty winds with the low and near
blizzard conditions for a couple hours possible. The trough will
remain across the area as high pressure persists south of the
Brooks Range, and over the Arctic. Winds will remain from the east
along the coast at 10 to 25 mph, with light winds inland and in
the Brooks Range. Most areas will have high temperatures in the
single digits above and below, and low temperatures in the 10
below to 20 below range over the next few days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Trough of low pressure remains
over the area with some light snow along the coast south of the
Bering Strait. Some clearing tonight as the trough weakens and
high pressure pushes northeast into the area. A rapidly
developing low will move into the Gulf of Anadyr Tuesday morning,
and to St Lawrence Island Tuesday night. A short period of heavy
snow and strong gusty winds are expected with the low, but at this
time the lowest conditions are only expected to last a couple
hours as the low is moving pretty quickly across the area until it
stalls in the Western Interior. Expect strongest winds in the
area will be south of the Bering Strait at 15 to 20 mph gusting to
around 30 mph. Snowfall with the system will be generally up to 2
inches with up to 4 inches possible in the Nulato Hills and the
Bendeleben Mountains.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally cloudy with a few
flurries possible in the southern Interior, some light snow in
the Southeast Interior along a decaying front. Snowfall in the
southeast interior less than an inch. Winds light and variable.
Temperatures mild with lows zero to 20 below for most areas, and
the teens above during the day.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Weak low pressure will be
moving out as high pressure over Siberia pushes southeast into the
state by the end of the week. Temperatures slightly cooler as
skies clear and cooler air aloft hangs over the area. Northeast to
east winds less than 15 mph for most locations.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 21