Winter Weather Advisory 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
WWAK42 PAFC 081232 AAA
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

AKZ195-090145-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.210409T0900Z-210409T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
432 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will warm from south to 
  north on Friday morning. Precipitation will change to rain at 
  St. George, ending blizzard conditions there earlier than St. 
  Paul.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ155-081500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210408T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
432 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. North winds gusting up 
  to 55 mph near the coast. Visibilities reduced to one quarter 
  mile at times.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-090145-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-210409T0900Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
432 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one half mile at times.

* WHERE...Interior Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below 
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 
  minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northwesterly winds will increase this 
  morning and persist though the day in the Iliamna area, 
  leading to blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

792 
WWAK42 PAFC 081353 AAB
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

AKZ195-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.210409T0900Z-210409T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
553 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will warm from south to 
  north on Friday morning. Precipitation will change to rain at 
  St. George, ending blizzard conditions there earlier than St. 
  Paul.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ155-081500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210408T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
553 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. North winds gusting up 
  to 55 mph near the coast. Visibilities reduced to one quarter 
  mile at times.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta coast.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-210409T0900Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
553 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one half mile at times.

* WHERE...Interior Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below 
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 
  minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northwesterly winds will increase this 
  morning and persist though the day in the Iliamna area, 
  leading to blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

940 
WWAK42 PAFC 081507
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
707 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

AKZ155-081615-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210408T1500Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
707 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Conditions have improved in the Kuskokwim Delta. Some areas of
light snow still exist.

$$

AKZ195-090200-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.210409T0900Z-210409T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
707 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will warm from south to 
  north on Friday morning. Precipitation will change to rain at 
  St. George, ending blizzard conditions there earlier than St. 
  Paul.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-090200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-210409T0900Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
707 AM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 
  Visibilities reduced to one half mile at times.

* WHERE...Interior Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Drifting snow 
  likely. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below 
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 
  minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northwesterly winds will increase this 
  morning and persist though the day in the Iliamna area, 
  leading to blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

803 
WWAK42 PAFC 090005
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

AKZ161-090115-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-210409T0900Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
405 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Visibilities have improved and significant reductions to
visibility with blowing snow are no longer expected.

$$

AKZ195-091400-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0012.210409T0900Z-210409T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
405 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Visibilities
  reduced to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will warm from south to north
  on Friday morning. Precipitation will change to rain at St.
  George, ending blizzard conditions there earlier than St. Paul.
  Snow will mix with or transition to all rain by late morning
  across the entire area, resulting in rapidly improving
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ155-091400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0040.210410T0000Z-210410T1800Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
405 PM AKDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
AKDT SATURDAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 
  5 inches. Visibilities reduced to a half mile or less.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills
  as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin 
  in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin from southwest to northeast
  over the Kuskokwim Delta Friday afternoon with an approaching
  frontal system. Southeast winds gusting to 35 mph will increase
  through Saturday morning along the coast where the worst
  conditions are expected, including areas from Kipnuk to Hooper
  Bay. Winds will subside by late Saturday morning resulting in 
  improving conditions. Periods of light snow will continue into 
  Saturday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Active weather continues for our forecast area today. Zonal flow
aloft is pushing a closed 500MB low into Southwest AK today. This
low is reflected at the surface as a strong, mature low pressure
system. Bethel and King Salmon RADARs show the frontal system
associated with this moving ashore, with widespread precipitation
returns across coastal Southwest Alaska. Weather hazards with this
system remain in effect, with surface observations showing
visibility decreasing as the front pushes inland.

In Southcentral AK, weak upper level ridging continues to keep
fair weather in place. This ridge is beginning to slide east
however, which is allowing cloud cover to start moving in from the
approaching system in Southwest AK. At the surface, weak low
pressure in the gulf and high pressure inland continue to keep
offshore gap winds going along the north gulf coast. Light
northerly winds also continue to keep temperatures below normal
for Southcentral AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in very good agreement on the upcoming cold air
outbreak. Thus, we have high confidence in the short term
forecast. Some question between models does exist in the movement
and timing of the upper level shortwave that will enhance winds in
Southcentral AK. However, these differences are not enough to
impact the forecast. Models are also performing well in Southwest
Alaska and the Bering, leading to high confidence for the short
term in those locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist during the day
today. This evening, light snow will move over the airfield with
low level cloud cover. We are expecting conditions to remain VFR,
however there is a chance that cloud cover will drop to MVFR
conditions overnight with snow. Tomorrow afternoon, strong
northerly winds will develop over the airfield. These winds are
expected to increase in strength tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Friday Night)...

A very active and frigid weather pattern is setting up across
Southcentral to close out the workweek. This discussion will focus
on each hazard.

Wind: The winds will be by far the most impactful element of the
upcoming storm. High Wind Warnings have been issued for Thompson
Pass, Seward, and Kodiak Island. For Kodiak Island, a very strong
northwesterly upper jet combined with the advection of the
unseasonably cold air mass will team up to cause high winds across
town, due to funneling winds through the mountain passes. The
strongest winds are expected from Thursday afternoon through early
Friday morning.

Across Seward, the wind gusts may not quite reach hurricane force
gusts of 74 mph, but gusts above 60 mph are expected to cause
impacts including picking up loose debris, possible damage to
vessels in the harbor, and power outages. These winds are very
unusual for the Seward area, so preparations for this high wind
event should begin immediately. Strong winds are also expected in
Whittier around the same time as Seward, with gusts above 65 mph
possible. Precautions should also begin in Whittier as well.

Wind gusts across Thompson Pass are also expected to reach
hurricane force, which may cause localized reductions in
visibility due to blowing snow through the pass. Strong gusts to
65 mph are also likely through Valdez as well, with similar
impacts expected as those in Kodiak and Seward possible.

The winds will be particularly impactful due to the very cold
nature of the air mass moving in to all of Southcentral. This is
the type of cold far more typical of December and January. Because
this cold air will be dense and moving in on very strong winds,
the impacts will be increased in these areas.

Across Anchorage, gusts to 50 mph on the unusual northwesterly
wind direction are likely to cause impacts such as localized power
outages and the pickup of loose debris as areas such as the Bowl
and downtown are likely to see the brunt of the strongest winds,
whereas Turnagain Arm and higher elevations, while they too will
see gusty winds, it will be nowhere near the magnitude of the
opposite direction winds those areas are much more used to. See
the Special Weather Statement for more details.

Heavy Freezing Spray: As mentioned in previous discussions, the
extreme rates of heavy freezing spray accretion to marine vessels
in Shelikof Strait and the Lower Cook Inlet remain in the
forecast. The very cold air moving across waters in the mid 30s on
hurricane force winds will all combine to produce accretion rates
as high as 2 inches per hour during the peak of the event Thursday
night.

Snow: Snow will actually be the first real sign of the storm, and
will begin over much of Southcentral this evening, continuing into
Thursday morning. However, this snow event will be quite minor in
all areas, with most areas seeing anywhere from a half inch in the
Bowl, to up to 3 inches elsewhere. The one area getting a bit more
snow will be Portage Valley, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect for blowing snow due to 4 to 8 inches of new snow combined
with gusty easterly winds tonight. The winds will flip
northwesterly Thursday afternoon causing additional localized
areas of blowing snow into Thursday night.

Temperature: Have I mentioned it's going to be cold yet? The one
saving grace to the fact that the first record lows in years are
likely to fall over the next few days is that since it's already
been well below normal temperature-wise for the past 2 months,
most folks are already used to it. Nevertheless, expect the cold
air to begin moving in during the day Thursday, but the coldest
temperatures are expected Friday night once the winds die down.
Temperatures to 25 below are possible in the Copper River Basin,
with below zero temperatures expected in all interior locations
Friday night. Lows in the single digits are likely all the way to
the Gulf Coast.

Wind Chill: And finally...the cold temperatures and wind means
wind chills will be a concern Thursday night across much of
Southcentral, and into Friday night across the Copper Basin and
Thompson Pass especially. Wind chills to 25 below are possible in
east Anchorage, the Hillside, the Kenai Peninsula, and the Mat
Valley, with wind chills to 30 below across the Susitna Valley
and Copper River Basin. On Friday night, the temperatures will
fall much more under crystal clear skies, but the diminishing
winds will spare most areas from wind chill concerns. However, the
winds will persist longer across the Copper Basin and Thompson
Pass, where values to 40 below are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Today through Friday)...

A front is currently located over the Kuskokwim Delta south across
Bristol Bay. This is bringing strong winds and snow to the coast. Expect
blizzard conditions across the Kuskokwim Delta through tomorrow
morning with gusts up to 55 mph and 3 to 7 inches of snowfall
dropping visibilities to a quarter mile or less. Beginning
tomorrow afternoon, conditions should become much colder and drier
as a cold, polar air mass moves over the area. This will drop
temperatures quickly across the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Friday)...

A front currently extends from the Kuskokwim Delta south to the
Alaska Peninsula and over the eastern Aleutians and Bering. This
is bringing strong winds and rain to the Aleutians. Beginning
tomorrow morning, conditions should become much colder and drier
as a cold, polar air mass moves over the area. This will drop
temperatures quickly and increase gap winds south of the Alaska
Peninsula to hurricane force gusts. Expect this from tomorrow
morning through Friday morning along with heavy freezing spray.

A front associated with a low west of the western Bering will head
east across the Bering beginning late Thursday. This front will
bring blizzard conditions from Friday morning through Friday
night for the Pribilof Islands. For these conditions, expect
sustained winds of 40 mph and snow reducing visibilities to a
quarter mile or less at times. Right behind this, temperatures
should warm, switching precipitation over to rain Friday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

An active pattern is expected to continue for the forecast period
with a large gale force low anticipated to slowly traverse the
Bering Sea. Differences arise after the Saturday night time
period in regards to exact strength and placement of the low. The
one thing that looks to be fairly certain is that gale force winds
are expected on the northwest to southwest side of this low the
duration of the forecast period subsiding Monday.

More uncertainty arises for what happens on the eastern side of
this low as another piece of energy is expected to move northward
from the North Pacific and towards the Gulf of Alaska. The low in
the Bering may transfer some of its energy to this other system.
The less energy transferred the weaker this other system will be
keeping the system in the Bering stronger for a longer time
frame. The strength of this other system that will move into the
Gulf is uncertain at this time ranging from small crafts to
potentially gale force. One thing that is certain is the track
that this feature will take moving from the southwest part of the
Gulf towards Southeast Alaska Sunday through Monday.

&&

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the upper level
features early on in the forecast time period before diverging for
Tuesday and Wednesday. All guidance agrees that there will be an
upper level trough present across the Bering and western Alaska
extending southward from another upper level low present over the
Arctic just north of the North Slope for Sunday into Monday with
some slight placement differences. Model guidance agrees on an
upper level ridge nudging up into Eastern Alaska and along the
ALCAN border with Southeast Alaska under the axis of the this
ridge early on before pushing off to the east. Beyond Monday
night, model guidance spreads widely on the strength of these
features, though, placement looks to be in fairly good agreement.

Basically, the main takeaway will be that a fairly active pattern
will return to Southern Alaska. There is the potential for an
atmospheric river aimed somewhere in between the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Southeast Alaska as multiple systems will impact
the region over a couple day time period. Temperatures look to
slowly warm each day possibly reaching the upper 40s maybe even 50
degrees for some areas of Southcentral towards the end of the
forecast period, though, this will all be determined by the exact
strength and placement of upper level features Tuesday and
Wednesday. There is also the chance temperatures may not drop to
or below freezing which may impact the continuing running tally
for consecutive nights at or below freezing for Anchorage which by
this time frame will be in the top 5. Therefore, expect near
average temperatures to start the period, rising to above normal
for the second half of the period. As these systems come up,
precipitation types may be an issue across the area as warm air
tries to overcome the very cold air mass present out ahead of it.
Also, potential exists for some fairly high precipitation amounts
in the four day period mentioned, especially in the mountainous
terrain. Lastly, with this upcoming pattern next week, rapid
snowmelt is anticipated especially if temperatures get as warm as
currently progged to do.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155 195
         Winter Weather Advisory 125 161
         High Wind Warning 125 131 171
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 130 131 138
         Storm Warning 120 121 127 132 150
         Gale Warning 119 125 126 128 129 136 137 139 140 155 160
                      165 170 172 173 175 177-181 185
         Heavy Freezing Spray 119 120 121 125 129 130 131 137-141
                      150 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV