Winter Storm Watch 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
WWAK42 PAFC 121244
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

AKZ161-130145-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0014.211213T1800Z-211214T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0024.211213T1800Z-211214T0900Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
344 AM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST
MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to midnight AKST Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Expect degraded traveling conditions. Areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as 
  one quarter mile. Arctic air temperatures combined with the wind
  will cause wind chills to be as low as 35 degrees below zero 
  which could frostbite in as little as 10 to 15 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ155-130145-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0014.211213T1500Z-211214T0600Z/
/O.EXB.PAFC.BZ.W.0023.211213T1500Z-211214T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
344 AM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST MONDAY  
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Expect degraded traveling conditions. Areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as 
  one quarter mile at times. Arctic air temperatures combined with
  the wind will cause wind chills to be as low as 35 degrees 
  below zero which could frostbite in as little as 10 to 15 
  minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ195-130145-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0023.211212T2100Z-211213T1500Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
344 AM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 to 10 inches. East winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts as high 
  as 65 mph. Visibilities reduced to as low as one quarter mile.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on degraded travel conditions. Widespread 
  blowing snow can create for significant drifts.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
759 AM AKST Sat Dec 11 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A low pressure system currently over the southern Gulf is
meandering southeastward this morning with any lingering
precipitation confined to the east of Prince William Sound. This
area of low pressure will exit the forecast area with drier
conditions to set in across Southcentral the next few days.
Promoting the bulk of impactful weather is the presence of strong
cold air advection through the Bering and over Southwest. Which is
maintaining an impressive pressure gradient across the Alaska
Peninsula, aided further by a northwest to southeast oriented 180+
knot upper level jet that is sliding eastward into the interior
Southwest. Unsurprisingly, gale to storm force winds are ongoing
across the Peninsula, especially through the gaps, with hurricane
force winds noted over the Shelikof Strait as wind spills out from
the bays and passes. A high wind warning is also in effect across
Kodiak Island and Thompson Pass for expected gusts to as high as
75 mph. The warning for Kodiak Island will expire later on
Saturday evening while the warning for Thompson Pass is through
early Monday. Also of note, the threat for heavy freezing spray
will be high on Saturday and Sunday as elevated winds combine with
freezing temperatures. Mariners are urged to pay close attention
to the latest forecast and use caution if staying in port is not
an option.

Models continue to advertise a very cold air mass over the
northern Bering and northern Alaska which will slowly pervade
Southwest and Southcentral with colder temperatures through the
weekend. Windy conditions associated with the pressure gradient
will initially limit the depth of overnight cooling but calmer and
clearer conditions will eventually lead to more substantial
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will peak, or bottom out
depending on your view, on Sunday night with many areas inland of
the coast to dip into the minus teens. The Copper River Basin will
see the coldest lows with temperatures approaching 30 below.

Over the Aleutians an upper-level ridge moving across the region
will maintain wet but quieter weather in the short-term. A new low
pressure system will track into the region Sunday into Monday
with strong warm air advection bringing renewed shower chances and
small craft to gale force winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern over the
next few days. The forecast challenge continues to be the details
of winds and temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Cold air advection is
increasing gusty northerly surface winds, which are expected to be
the strongest during the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Saturday
through Tuesday)...

A low pressure system located over the northern Gulf continues to
advect cold Arctic air along its backside over Southwest and
Southcentral. The southern Alaska Peninsula is seeing strongest
winds and gusts through gaps and passes where the cold dense air
is being forced through.

Pressure gradients and cold air advection associated with this
deep low are producing strong offshore and gap winds for the Gulf
and Prince William Sound coasts and Kodiak Island. The marine
areas on the southern side of the Alaska Peninsula can expect to
see northwesterly storm force winds, and Kamishak Bay and
Shelikof Strait will likely experience hurricane force gusts up to
80 mph. Please see the High Wind Warning in effect for further
details. The extremely strong winds in concert with the cold
temperatures produces favorable conditions for heavy freezing
spray formation for the marine areas along the North Gulf coast
and across the Gulf.

The Arctic air mass nudging southward into Southwest and
Southcentral is so vertically deep and cold that if the skies do
manage to clear up at all on Sunday and Monday, radiational
cooling effects could drop temperature lows into the -10s for most
of the Southcentral interior. Areas of high wind may be
susceptible to low wind chills.

The low pressure system over the northern Gulf tracks eastward
through Sunday while a strong upper-level ridge pushes into
Southcentral on Monday, creating relatively quiet conditions for
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

For Southwest Alaska expect brutally cold (sub zero) and dry
conditions for most of the region on Saturday and Sunday.
Northerly flow will continue to advect cold air into the region.
The best chance for snow showers will be on the Alaska Peninsula,
but the models are relatively dry otherwise. On Monday, a front
pushing across the Bering will advance towards Nunivak and Western
AK. The leading edge of the precipitation shield is anticipated
Monday afternoon for K-Bay and Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern
features a deep trough axis that spans over Mainland and the Gulf
Of Alaska. This is a high amplitude pattern with a ridge axis
over the Aleutians. On satellite imagery (CIMSS MIMIC) there is a
fetch of tropical air from Philippines to the NW Pacific (just
south of Attu and Shemya). With this trough/ridge couplet, expect
gusty northerly winds over the eastern Aleutians/Bering and
convective snow showers. As the upper ridge shifts eastward a new
Pacific low will move toward Attu today and tonight. The surface
low will move into the Bering on Sunday. This system will become
occluded and bring widespread unsettled weather to the region. The
models at this time, suggest that a new low will form near Cold
Bay on Monday morning. Additionally, a secondary shortwave will
round the base of the upper low near Kamchatka and a new surface
low will form.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...

Expect active weather across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and
Southwest coast for the coming week, with fast moving storm
systems and rapidly changing conditions. Storms will generally
track from southwest to northeast across the Bering Sea.
Expect widespread gale force winds across the region, with
potential for smaller areas of storm force winds. The Gulf
of Alaska waters look much quieter, with some weaker systems
passing nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

It looks like a very stormy week across the Bering Sea, Aleutians,
and Southwest Alaska. The general storm track will be from
southwest to northeast across the Bering Sea. Progressive flow
aloft will lead to fast moving systems and rapidly changing
weather. The main threat to Southwest Alaska will be snow and
blowing snow, especially along the coast. For the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, warmer air accompanying these systems will generally
produce rain early in the week, while a shift in upper flow later
in the week could cause a change back to snow. Nonetheless,
expect periods of strong winds with each of these systems.

Southcentral Alaska will start out quiet, with perhaps a glancing
blow of light snow Monday night-Tuesday from a low crossing the
southern Gulf of Alaska. Weather will become more active for the
second half of the week as upper level flow shifts and storms
crossing the Bering continue eastward across mainland Alaska.
This will bring additional chances of snow. With the strength of
the upper level flow, each shot of snow would be brief. As for
temperatures, the week will start out in the deep freeze, but
would expect moderation of temperatures as we head through the
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
High Wind Warning 131 171.
MARINE...
Gale 120 121 125 127-129 160 171-177 180 185 351.
Storm 131 132 136 137 150 155 178 411-413 352.
Hurricane Force Wind 130 138.
Heavy Freezing Spray 119-121 125-132 136-141 150 160 165 180 185
352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/AF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1243 PM AKST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW KODIAK            57.78N 152.42W
12/11/2021  M92 MPH          PKZ136             AK   MESONET

            80.6 KNOT WIND GUST RECORDED AT GULL ISLAND.

1153 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE KODIAK STATION    57.75N 152.49W
12/10/2021  M74 MPH          KODIAK ISLAND      AK   ASOS

            PADQ KODIAK AIRPORT ASOS.

0656 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE AKHIOK            56.94N 154.19W
12/11/2021  M75 MPH          KODIAK ISLAND      AK   AWOS

&&