Small Craft Advisory 888, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 7, 2021, 3:00 PM AKST (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 8, 2021, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

403 
FZAK52 PAFC 080000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low 120 nm south of Kiska moves to 85 nm northwest of 
Adak and strengthens to 991 mb Tue morning. It then moves to 45 nm
north of Seguam Island at 993 mb by Tue afternoon. Its front 
reaches Unalaska Bay Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt, except variable less than 10 kt E of Unalaska.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late W of Atka. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except variable less than 10 kt S of Cape
Newenham. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 7, 4:41 AM AKST, 10 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A disorganized upper trough is positioned over Southwest and
extends into the southern Gulf of Alaska. To its east several
small waves of low pressure are progressing to the northwest from
the Panhandle into Southcentral. The most notable wave is
currently lifting across Southcentral with increased cloud cover
and light snow, which has been observed at various locations from
Gulkana to Whittier and even into Anchorage. To the west and
offshore of Alaska a jet stream is draped from Arctic Russia
southward across the Bering and through the Alaska Peninsula with
overcast skies over much of the Bering. Immediately west of the
jet stream a ridge of high pressure is in place, which is being
encroached upon by a mature upper low over the Aleutians. Latest
satellite shows what remains of an occluded front extends
southeastward from the low and across the Eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement this morning with the overall
weather picture. Of initial interest was the development of a
closed low over the southeast Gulf of Alaska and potential impacts
through the middle of the week. All guidance has this low
amplifying through 48 hours, but then moving into British
Columbia thereafter. Which will limit any concerns to the Gulf
and the Southcentral Coast. A low and associated front moving into
the Aleutians is also being handled well with good agreement of
its slow eastward progress and eventual dip southward into the
North Pacific later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions have been common through the overnight
hours and the latest upper disturbance passing over Prince William
Sound into the Kenai Peninsula, noted on both radar and
satellite, is maintaining those conditions. Light snow may be
noted at times but should have minimal impacts to visibility. As
low pressure departs the region VFR conditions are expected to
return later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A compact low that is associated with a 500 mb shortwave is in
Prince William Sound and heading westward early this morning. This
low is bringing snow shower to the Sound and will likely have a
few cross the Chugach and Kenai Mountains to bring a few snow
showers to Anchorage and the Northern Kenai Peninsula this
morning. This feature is weakening so it will not create much
snowfall and should have largely dissipated by this evening.

Skies should begin to clear out behind the shortwave and that will
usher in noticeably colder temperatures this week. There is a
chance for some fog in the Copper River Basin tonight with the
rapidly dropping temperatures and some residual moisture.

Two separate shortwaves are heading toward Kodiak from the Gulf
and will bring a chance of snow showers there later this morning
through late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An elongated upper low with embedded short waves that is
continuing to filter cooler temperatures and isolated snow
showers to Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN. Northerly flow will
continue through Monday. The models show an upper level
disturbance closing off and becoming a closed low at 500 mb. This
feature will move over Chevak/Nunivak and then move towards
Bristol Bay. This feature will bring the snow shower activity over
water. The main sensible weather for SW AK will be a continuance
of cold temperatures highs in the teens and 20s and lows in
single digits and possibly below 0F in some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave pattern is highly amplified. There is a closed low
at 500 mb southeast of Shemya and an elongated trough from the
Bering Strait to the AKPEN. There is a ridge over the central
Bering. This pattern will result in cold northerly winds across
much of the eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians through Monday.
There is a jet core of 150 knots south of Dutch Harbor that is
associated with mature low. This low will move eastward. All the
while this low will slowly decay. On satellite imagery, there is
a swath of modified tropical moisture from Attu to Adak.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Aleutians/Bering...The main feature will be an area of low
pressure moving south of the Kamchatka Peninsula towards the
western Aleutians beginning late Monday. Moderate confidence that
gale force winds will wrap around the western side of this system
with seas building to 10 to 15 feet late Monday and potentially
to 20 feet by Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, expect winds less than
35 kts and seas less than 20 ft as an area of high pressure builds
over the Bering for the Day 3 through 5 period.

Gulf of Alaska...A series of weak lows meandering over the Gulf
will maintain winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft
over for the Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in decent agreement with the synoptic scale
features, but begin to diverge in the latter half of next week. A
general troughing pattern extending from the Alaska mainland to
the Gulf will eject a series of upper level waves with chances of
rain/snow mix returning in the coastal areas and inland valleys
beginning Wednesday afternoon. The bulk of moisture and
precipitation seem to be primarily focused in eastern Prince
William Sound and the rest of the Alaska Panhandle through early
Friday. However, that could change based on the current model
differences regarding the track, position, and strength of
individual systems. Otherwise, seasonable to below normal
temperatures can be expected as colder air advects southward
across the entire state. Out west, a cool and showery pattern will
likely persist across the Bering and Aleutians through late
Thursday before shifting east along the Southwest coast and Alaska
Peninsula on Friday. Meanwhile, benign conditions will prevail
over the western Aleutians to the central Bering for late next
week and possibly through Saturday as a ridge of high pressure
builds overhead.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 177 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MTL

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.