Small Craft Advisory 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

934 
FZAK52 PAFC 071251
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080145-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low 170 nm south of Shemya moves to 20 nm southeast of
Seguam Island, strengthening to 993 mb Tue morning. Its front 
moves over Unalaska Bay Tue morning. High pressure over the Bering
begins to break down Sun night.

$$

PKZ150-080145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080145-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080145-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080145-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080145-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

403 
FZAK52 PAFC 080000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low 120 nm south of Kiska moves to 85 nm northwest of 
Adak and strengthens to 991 mb Tue morning. It then moves to 45 nm
north of Seguam Island at 993 mb by Tue afternoon. Its front 
reaches Unalaska Bay Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt, except variable less than 10 kt E of Unalaska.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late W of Atka. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt late. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except variable less than 10 kt S of Cape
Newenham. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKST Sun Nov 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper low over Kodiak Island remains the anchor of a broad
trough extending from Barrow southward into the Gulf of Alaska,
with multiple disturbances tracking through its broad cyclonic
flow. Immediately west of the trough exists a ridge of high
pressure elongated from north to south over the Bering. Resultant
northwesterly flow continues to filter colder air temperatures
from the Chukchi Sea southward into the Bering and portions of
Southwest. Which is also helping to reinvigorate northwestward
moving shortwave disturbances across Southcentral. As has been the
case the past few days, a band of extensive cloud cover remains
stretched from the Alaska Panhandle and Yukon northwestward across
the eastern-two thirds of state. Precipitation across Southwest
and Southcentral is much lighter and isolated. However, a compact
wave brought a quick burst of snow across the Pribilofs during the
overnight hours and will move into the Alaska Peninsula between
Cold Bay and Chignik the new few hours. An occluded front extends
over the Western and Central Aleutians with continued southeast
winds and potential gales, primarily for the waters around Adak.
Further east, a small yet vigorous wave of low pressure is
promoting light to moderate snow over Southeast Prince William
Sound, including the town of Cordova.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Little has changed over the past 12 hours with models showing
discrepancies in the forecast as early as 24 hours from Saturday
morning. The biggest offender remains an area of low pressure
offshore of the Alaska Panhandle. The GFS continues to be the
faster and more organized solution, taking the low along the gulf
coast and into Prince William Sound by Saturday night. The NAM too
while less organized shows a similar track. However, the other
global models, the ECMWF and Canadian, never produce an organized
low, keeping it more of a weak wave of low pressure that quickly
moves inland of the coast and falls apart. Precipitation chances
will depend entirely how far west the low progresses and how
quickly. At this time we are leaning toward precipitation chances
for the Anchorage area holding off until the Sunday morning time
frame with the Kenai Peninsula seeing precipitation chances
develop later in the day on Sunday. Switching oceans and the
models handling of a mature low west of the Aleutians is in good
agreement through roughly 12z on Sunday. Thereafter, considerable
disagreement exists as the low is blocked by high pressure over
the Bering and at the same time interacts with several
disturbances tracking to the south of the low. Regardless of the
low's position and strength, greater agreement exists with the
placement and track of the low's occluded front, which is forecast
to slowly move through the Aleutians over the next 48 hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR conditions have developed the past couple of hours
thanks to warm air advection into Anchorage this morning.
Uncertainty exists for when exactly ceilings will begin lifting
through the late morning hours, but general expectations is for
VFR conditions to become more prominent this afternoon. The
evolution of a low offshore of Sitka will be the main feature to
monitor through Sunday as it makes its way toward Prince William
Sound. This low may see snow return during the 15z to 18z time
frame Sunday morning with conditions dropping to IFR yet again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday)...

A nearly stationary, negatively tilted upper level trough extends
from eastern Russia southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska. This
pattern will provide spotty rain/snow showers for inland areas of
Southcentral through this morning. West of the trough, cold air
advection from the Arctic continues southward into the eastern
Bering Sea and southern Alaska Peninsula. Strong north to
northwesterly winds will continue across the southern Cook Inlet,
the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait areas through Saturday.
These winds will diminish on Sunday.

A low pressure system currently near Prince William Sound is
producing snow showers across the region. While this low weakens
through the day, several inches of accumulation are possible
through this morning, especially near Cordova. A new low tracks
along the east Gulf coast and will likely reach Southcentral by
tonight. The models continue to struggle with the exact details of
this new low. At this time, it looks like it will bring a shot of
gusty winds and a few inches of additional snow from Cordova, to
Valdez, and Whittier. The storm's possible track and wind impacts
for the Gulf and coastal areas will continue to be refined. After
a long stretch of active weather, the forecast looks relatively
quiet for Southcentral on Monday with colder temperatures and
drier conditions dominating.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An elongated upper low with embedded short waves that is
continuing to bring cooler temperatures and snow showers to
Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN. These combined with gusty
northwesterly winds near the coast are leading to periods of
blowing snow and reduced visibility. This same general pattern
will persist through the weekend. The most widespread snow showers
are expected to remain near the coast, with the interior
remaining mostly dry. At 850 mb, temperatures will range between
-10C and -16C. Expect cold temperatures this weekend with highs
 in the teens and 20s and lows in single digits and possibly below
 0F in some locations. Breezy conditions expected for the AKPEN
 this forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

There is a closed low at 500 mb south of Attu Island and a deep
trough from the Bering Strait to the AKPEN. There is a ridge over
the central Aleutians that has moved into the central Bering. This
pattern has steered in cold northerly winds across much of the
eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians. Expect these northerly winds
to persist through this forecast period. There is a jet core of
125 knots south of Adak that is associated with mature low. This
low will continue to move towards the western Aleutians, and then
its track will curve eastward. All the while this low will slowly
decay/fill. On satellite imagery, there is a discernible fetch of
tropical moisture wrapped into this low. The precipitation shield
will continue to move over the western Aleutians today and make
eastward progression.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Aleutians/Bering...A low with associated cold front will move out
of the Kamchatka area towards the western Aleutians late Monday
into Tuesday with Gales possible as well as seas building to 10 to
15 feet late Monday and close to 20 feet by Tuesday morning. The
low then moves south of the area into the North Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. Across the rest of the Bering high pressure will keep
winds 15 kts or less and gradually increasing to near small crafts
late Tuesday and Wednesday as this high weakens and colder air
spills across the Bering. Forecast confidence is average due to
uncertainty with the forecast.

Gulf of Alaska...Several weak lows will meander around the Gulf
with occasional small craft winds with the best chance to see
these across southern Cook Inlet, near the Barren Islands and
across Shelikof Strait as north to northwest winds develop for
short periods. Otherwise winds will be less than 25 knots in most
areas and waves expected to be below 10 feet. Forecast confidence
is average due to uncertainty with the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A high amplitude pattern will set up over the region next week,
but it looks like quiet conditions will dominate most areas. A
ridge over the west Pacific early in the week will amplify and
build northward into the western Bering Sea then shift eastward
toward mainland Alaska late in the week. A trough with multiple
embedded lows will sit over southern Alaska and the Gulf of
Alaska, but will lack any significant surface features. As a
result, mostly dry conditions will prevail across southern Alaska.
There is good agreement on southward advection of Arctic air into
Southcentral early in the week. Thus, expect seasonable to below
normal temperatures across southern Alaska. The subtropical jet
will be positioned well to the south over the Northeast Pacific.
As the upper ridge approaches, the pattern will amplify further
and the jet will strengthen. This favors cyclogenesis and rapid
deepening of a low in the northeast Pacific. Some solutions track
a low up into the Gulf. Based on the wave positions, would expect
the most likely track will be to the eastern Gulf and Southeast
Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO/AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...RC/SEB