Small Craft Advisory 870, NWS Anchorage, AK

776 
FZAK52 PAFC 021217
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030145-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb low 230 nm west of Dutch Harbor this morning will move 
over the southern Alaska Peninsula at 984 mb Wednesday morning. 
The low then moves over Bristol Bay at 990 mb Thursday morning. A 
second 989 mb low 370 nm northwest of Bethel will remain nearly 
stationary and dissipate Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-030145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 25 kt. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030145-
Bristol Bay-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt except N 40 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 16
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. From 
Dutch Harbor E, NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030145-
Unalaska Bay-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 3 
ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12
ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030145-
Adak to Kiska-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030145-
Kiska to Attu-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 12 
ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
417 AM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray NW of Saint 
Matthew Island.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray NW of Saint 
Matthew Island. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray NW of Saint 
Matthew Island. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

164 
FZAK52 PAFC 022354
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031230-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb low 130 nm northeast of Unalaska moves near Port Heiden at 
980 mb Wednesday afternoon. The low then remains nearly stationary 
through Thursday afternoon weakening to 987 mb.

$$

PKZ150-031230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt except W 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. 
Seas 15 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031230-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, E wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt, Seas 19 ft. From Port Moller E, W wind 25 kt
becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in 
the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From Unalaska E, NW wind 20 kt
increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031230-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031230-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031230-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing Spray after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing Spray in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

373 
FZAK52 PAFC 031214
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040130-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 mb low 150 nm southwest of Dillingham this morning will 
move 15 nm southwest of Dillingham at 989 mb Thursday morning. 
The low will then gradually weaken while moving inland Friday 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-040130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt early becoming SW 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. Seas 
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt through bays and passes. 
Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040130-
Bristol Bay-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray along the coast in
the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 9 ft. 
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.  and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040130-
Unalaska Bay-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040130-
Adak to Kiska-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040130-
Kiska to Attu-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray along the Kuskokwim
Bay coast. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray along the Kuskokwim
Bay coast. Snow and rain.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray along the Kuskokwim
Bay coast in the morning. Snow and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Freezing spray along the coast in the
morning. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
414 AM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray W of Saint Matthew
Island.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray W of Saint 
Matthew Island.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray W of Saint Matthew
Island.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave pattern is highly amplified. The upper level trough
has stalled over western Alaska and the Bering, while a upper
level ridge has remained stationary over western Canada forming a
"block pattern". On satellite imagery there is a fetch of moisture
from the Pacific Ocean to north of the Brooks Range. Near Prince
William Sound there is an area where the moisture is over 300
percent of normal. For this event so far, Girdwood has received
over 14 inches of rain and Portage has received over 18 inches of
rain. This "atmospheric river" event is not over yet for
Southcentral. To the west of the trough axis, over Southwest
Alaska there is a cold airmass in place with the temperatures
ranging from -8C to -14C at 850 mb. Over the Bering, there is
widespread northerly flow and a 983 mb mature low north of Attu
Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain is good agreement on the large scale pattern and the
persistence of the "atmospheric river" for the next 48 hrs.
Looking at the surface however, the models diverge early on with
the track of the low in the Bering. This may be a function of the
"block pattern" over Canada. But all the major models show the low
sweeping across the Bering. Because of the complex terrain and
the "atmospheric river" the forecast challenge will be monitoring
the flood potential for Kenai, Girdwood and Prince William Sound.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions under a midlevel cloud deck today. The
potential for LLWS is being monitored. In a nutshell, there will
be a period of VFR, midlevel ceilings and winds around 8kts. Then
the ceilings will lower with rain showers once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday)...

The pattern continues to highlight an atmospheric river pummeling
the Gulf Coast. Deep tropical moisture being brought up from the
North Pacific is responsible for all of this precipitation. One
piece of good news is that the heaviest rain shifted east
overnight towards central Prince William Sound, away from Seward
somewhat. It will hold there through the morning before starting
to bend back to the west later today. This is all a result of a
strong Omega Block centered over the interior portions of Canada.
Southcentral Alaska remains on the upstream (west) side of the
block and thus, plenty of warm air and various pieces of energy
continue to move right over the area. The precipitation totals
through Tue night were refined with this forecast package. The
Seward and Girdwood area should expect another 1-2" with 4-6"
possible for Whittier and Portage. A Flood Warning remains in
effect for Girdwood this morning. The freezing level will hover
right around 1,500-2,000' through the next 24hrs which will mean
several more feet of snow is in store for higher elevations.
Backcountry users should be mindful of considerable avalanche
danger.

As we head into Tue, a trough of much colder air will be right on
our doorstep to the west. This will set the stage for a battle
between warm, southeast winds vs much colder air trying to work
into inland portions of Southcentral. At this time, it certainly
looks like the warm air will prevail and keep most of the
precipitation type as rain. The exception will be portions of the
Copper River Basin where a few inches of snow are expected. As we
move into Tuesday, there will be a chance for snow to start to
mix in to other areas as well. It still looks like temperatures
will be too warm across most of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage,
and the Mat Valley to see much in the way of accumulation.
However, this portion of the forecast bears watching due to the
proximity of the cold air and the steady precipitation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper-level trough extending south across the Kuskokwim Valley
this morning will continue to drift east today. In its wake, a
ridge over the eastern Aleutians and Bering will lift over the
Southwest coast. The resultant northwesterly flow will usher in
clearer and drier conditions for interior Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday. Along the coast, a southerly flow will develop on Monday
as an upper-level wave advances toward Nunivak Island. A surface
front attached to a low near Saint Matthew Island will push toward
the Kuskokwim Delta coast with a mix of rain and snow. Snow is
likely during the morning hours from Toksook Bay to Hooper Bay,
especially with a more east-southeast wind. Blowing snow is also
possible along the immediate coast during the first couple of
hours of snow before temperatures begin to warm. The snow should
transition to a rain/snow mix then to all rain by afternoon as
winds become southerly and warmer air is drawn north. A rain/snow
mix will continue along the coast through Tuesday as the front
stalls and a second area of low pressure develops south of Etolin
Strait. A front extending south from this second low will push
into Bristol Bay late Tuesday with light snow possible for
interior Southwest for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak ridging over the eastern half of the Aleutians and Bering
will quickly give way to clouds and precipitation through Monday
as an upper-level trough and associated surface low move east from
the western Bering. These feature will pivot to the eastern Bering
by Tuesday and move to the Southwest coast for Wednesday. Expect
showers and northerly gales along the backside of the trough as
colder air is advected south from eastern Russia. The cold pool of
air extends across the entirety of the Bering to the AKPen by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Wednesday through Friday)...

Aleutians/Bering... The Eastern Bering front moves inland for
Thursday. A Northern Bering low moves into Bristol Bay by Friday.
Gusty winds with areas of Northerly gales move southward in the
Eastern Bering, diminishing Friday. Seas to 20 feet on the Bering
side of the Eastern Aleutians, subsiding Wednesday after the front
passes. Seas building to 17 feet on the Bering side of the
Eastern Aleutians for Friday. Forecast confidence fair to good.

Gulf of Alaska... A front exits the Eastern Gulf with gusty winds
diminishing Wednesday. A second front enters the Western Gulf for
Wednesday. Gusty winds wrap the front with areas of Southerly
gales, diminishing Thursday. Seas to 15 feet along the north Gulf
Coast on Wednesday, subsiding.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Sunday)...

A nearly stationary low centered along the Southwest Alaska coast
will keep light snow shower activity ongoing across much of
Southwest Alaska on Wednesday. A cold air mass racing south on the
back side of the low will make for widespread snow shower
activity across much of the Bering and Aleutians. Meanwhile for
Southcentral, a continuation of the pattern from earlier in the
week, namely mild onshore flow, will keep unsettled conditions
continuing, especially along the coast. Weak surface winds should
allow some of that moisture to move inland as well, so even
Anchorage and the Mat-Su should see some light precipitation at
times on Wednesday, though there is significant uncertainty as to
what form (rain or snow) that it will take.

On Thursday, cold air and snow showers will continue from the
coast of Southwest Alaska west across the Bering and Aleutians.
Southcentral will begin to dry out a bit, but some models suggest
the same stalled out front continuing to produce rain/snow shower
activity through the Kenai Peninsula, extending across the Inlet
into the Alaska Range.

By Friday, model differences rapidly increase, making for a very
low confidence forecast for Southcentral especially. The models
are handling a North Pacific low that may move into the Gulf very
differently, which in turn will determine whether Friday is also a
wet day or not. There's better agreement on a continuation of the
pattern of cold air and snow shower activity from the Kuskokwim
Delta west across much of the eastern Bering. The next front will
approach the Western Aleutians for the second half of the day
Friday. The front is well agreed upon that it will only be able to
make it to the Central Aleutians before stalling out and shearing
out through Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 125 Girdwood area.
MARINE...119 130 131 150 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 185 411 412
413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/JPW