Small Craft Advisory 865, NWS Anchorage, AK

681 
FZAK51 PAFC 311224
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010100-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 mb low 20 nm north of Sitkinak moves over Kodiak Island
Sunday afternoon at 996 mb and elongates into an open trough over
the western Gulf by Monday morning. The trough moves slowly
northeast toward the northern Gulf through Tuesday. Strong
southerly winds continue over the Gulf through Sunday.

$$

PKZ119-010100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
17 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010100-
Resurrection Bay-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010100-
Prince William Sound-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010100-
Port Valdez-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010100-
Valdez Narrows-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010100-
Valdez Arm-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010100-
Passage Canal-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt in the morning diminishing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft
in the evening building to 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010100-
Barren Islands East-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, W wind 15 kt
becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010100-
Chiniak Bay-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010100-
Marmot Bay-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 2 
ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010100-
Shelikof Strait-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming W 20 kt. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010100-
Kachemak Bay-
424 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Outer
Bay seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Inner bay. seas 3 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

938 
FZAK51 PAFC 312359
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011230-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 mb North Pacific low moves to 85 nm South of Seward at 998 mb 
dissipating into an elongated open trough over the Western Gulf by 
Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ119-011230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011230-
Resurrection Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011230-
Prince William Sound-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011230-
Port Valdez-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011230-
Valdez Narrows-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011230-
Valdez Arm-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011230-
Passage Canal-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NW 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011230-
Barren Islands East-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 15 kt becoming
N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011230-
Chiniak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011230-
Marmot Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011230-
Shelikof Strait-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011230-
Kachemak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt during the evening.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough axis extends from the northern Bering
southward over the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in place over
the eastern Gulf and Alaska Panhandle remains nearly stationary,
keeping a deep fetch of moist southerly flow in place over the
central Gulf. The deepening low pressure at the surface will
slowly move towards the southern tip of Kodiak Island and weaken
by Sunday. The low is bringing a wide swath of precipitation with
mainly snow from Bristol Bay south into northern portions of the
AKPen and rain from King Salmon to near Iliamna. Radar and
observations also shows light to moderate rain from Kodiak Island
to the eastern and southern parts of the Kenai Peninsula as well
as Prince William Sound with higher elevation snow. Additionally,
snow is shown in the western parts of the Susitna Valley and
western Alaska Range. Temperatures range from the teens across the
Y-K Delta to 20s and 30s across Bristol Bay and the AKPen. And 30s
across most of Southcentral with mid to upper 30s along coastal
locations where rain is occurring. And the high temperature in the
state yesterday on Oct 29th was Kodiak City at 50.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions continue to be in good agreement through the
short term. Some minor differences continue among models on the
evolution of the low over the Gulf and how much shortwave energy
pushes north across Anchorage by this afternoon and evening. The
biggest forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
timing of the transition between precipitation types across
Southwest Alaska. However there is fairly good confidence that
areas west of a line from Dillingham to Sleetmute will mainly see
snow while areas near Dillingham to Sleetmute will be in the
transition zone between snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain. All
of which are possible in this area. The other forecast challenge
for Southcentral is how much winds move into the Anchorage Bowl
this afternoon and evening, we could either keep an easterly MAT
Valley wind or strong south to southeast winds as the upper trough
moves across Anchorage.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect VFR ceiling with north to northwest winds through
early afternoon. The flow aloft will remain southeast and
continue to increase this morning as a front approaches the
Southcentral coast. This combination of northerly surface winds
and southeasterly winds aloft will allow for wind shear this
morning, continuing through the afternoon. As a front and
associated upper-level wave lift north this afternoon, surface
winds are expected to abruptly shift southeasterly and become
gusty with max gusts around 40 kts. This transition is expected
to take place around 03z with gusty southeasterly winds remaining
over the terminal through Sunday morning. Ceilings should remain
at or above 5,000 ft with the chance for occasional light rain or
sprinkles.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2:
Today through Monday)...

Active weather is developing across much of the Southern Mainland
this morning, the result of a highly amplified upper-level
pattern. An upper-level ridge extends from the Pacific Northwest
to the Yukon with a deep upper-level trough digging from the
Bering Strait south across the AKPen and into the North Pacific.
The result is deep southerly flow ahead of the trough, tapping
into tropical moisture and transporting it across the Gulf of
Alaska toward Southcentral. Embedded within the trough is
a shortwave and associated deepening surface low south of the
AKPen this morning. Both features are supported by a 140 kt
meridional jet streak moving toward the Southcentral coast.

At the surface, the low is extending a front across the western
Gulf. This front will continue to track toward the Kenai
Peninsula today. Strong southeasterly flow ahead of it is pushing
a wide area of heavy rain and high elevation snow across the Kenai
Peninsula. The heavy precipitation is likely to persist through
the weekend as southerly flow prevails with the low to the west
drifting slowly north and elongating across Bristol Bay over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Upwards of 6 to 8 inches of rain is expected
for Seward with much of that falling through the day today. Given
that, a Flood Warning remains in effect through Sunday morning. A
Flood Advisory is also in effect for the Anchor River, as runoff
from the heavy rain is likely to push water levels above bankfull.

In addition to the heavy rain and high elevation snow (above 3,500
ft), gap winds will also continue to ratchet upward through the
morning, peaking by Saturday afternoon before slowly winding down
through Sunday. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Portage
Valley, Turnagain Arm, and the Upper Hillside of Anchorage where
gusts to 80 mph are possible. Elsewhere, expect gusty
northeasterly winds across the Matanuska Valley this morning
before transitioning to the southeast this afternoon.
Southeasterly winds gusting to 45 mph will also likely move
across the rest of Anchorage this afternoon as the aforementioned
low moves north and pressures fall across interior Southwest
Alaska. Gusty winds are also likely for Homer through this
afternoon.

The strong southeasterly flow aloft will induce downsloping winds
for the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains today, limiting
precipitation amounts for those locations. However, periods of
light rain are possible from time to time for Anchorage, Palmer,
and Talkeetna due added lift from weaker waves lifting north
within the southerly flow aloft.

Unsettled weather will remain over Southcentral through Monday as
a shortwave moves in from the east and phases with the once
currently impacting Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The King Salmon and Bethel radars have been active early this
morning as low moves closer to the Alaska Peninsula and an
inverted surface trough pushes across SW AK. This low has tropical
moisture entrained in it, and it will venture into territory that
has been very cold. The expectation is that this system will
bring a wintry mix. So far, freezing rain has already been
observed at King Salmon. Expect snow, freezing rain (possibly
sleet), and rain. With the tight pressure gradient blowing snow is
possible also for portions of SW AK. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for this event for zones 152, 155 and 161. Aniak
(in 152) will remain all snow for this event with 8 to 14 inches
expected. Whereas Dillingham (in 161) will see multiple types of
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A progressive and unsettled pattern is on deck. This morning
there is a surface low south of the Alaska Peninsula. The front
attached to this mature low is currently moving across the
Aleutian Chain and will continue moving northward today and
tonight. This system will continue to bring strong winds to the
coastal waters south of the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula today. Rough seas will accompany this storm. There is a
second surface low in the north Bering that will move towards St
Matthew Island. There is a third low south of Shemya that will
stay south of the chain and in the open seas. Early Sunday, a new
low develops by Kamchatka and is headed towards the central
Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Aleutians/Bering...A low complex and front moves across the
Aleutians and Bering through Wednesday. Gale force winds wrap the
low and front, diminishing Wednesday. Seas to 20 feet over the
Western Bering, subsiding Tuesday. Overall confidence is good. A
low develops on the front South of the Central Aleutians Tuesday.
This low tracks Eastward through Wednesday. Gusty winds with areas
of Southerly gales move over the Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday.
Seas building to 23 feet on the Bering side of the Eastern
Aleutians for Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska...A North Pacific low intensifies as it moves into
the Western Gulf by Wednesday. Gusty winds increase to Southeast
high-end gales with areas of storm force winds developing for
Wednesday. Seas building to 22 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The key features in the long term include a broad upper level
trough over the Bering on Tuesday while an upper level ridge
extends over the Yukon. At this time, the GFS advertises a
secondary upper level low over the Gulf, however this is the only
solution currently suggesting the development of this second low.
By Thursday, the pattern becomes more amplified with a meridional
300 mb jet in place. This will allow for a general trend of a
colder airmass in place over the Bering that looks to persist
through the end of next week. Additionally, several low pressure
systems over the North Pacific will lift northward over
Southcentral keeping an active weather pattern in place.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 101 125.
	     Winter Weather Advisory 152 155 161
		 Flood Advisory 121
	     Flood Warning 125
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 125
         Gale Warning 120 128-132 136-141 150 155 160 165 170 172
                      180 414 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KO