Small Craft Advisory 844, NWS Anchorage, AK

682 
FZAK52 PAFC 242316
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-251215-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 973 mb low 125NM south of Unalaska moves to 350NM SE of Kodiak
City, remaining at 973 mb Tuesday afternoon. A 1000 mb low 
develops off of the Siberian coast Tuesday evening and moves near 
St. Matthew Island at 996 mb Wednesday afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-251215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft in the evening building to 15 
ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-251215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15 kt 
becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E,
seas 7 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-251215-
Bristol Bay-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-251215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-251215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-251215-
Unalaska Bay-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-251215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft after
midnight.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-251215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-251215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-251215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-251215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-251215-
Adak to Kiska-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-251215-
Kiska to Attu-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-251215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-251215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-251215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-251215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

207 
FZAK52 PAFC 251138
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-260100-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 976 mb low near 52N 161W moves to 53N 153W at 974 mb Tuesday 
afternoon. Tuesday morning a 996 mb low develops and moves to 60N 
172W at 991 mb Wednesday morning.


$$

PKZ150-260100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-260100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt N in the morning becoming N. Seas 18 ft. From 
the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 20 kt becoming N 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-260100-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-260100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-260100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-260100-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-260100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-260100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-260100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-260100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-260100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-260100-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-260100-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-260100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-260100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-260100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-260100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

106 
FZAK52 PAFC 252356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261300-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nm west of Adak, is currently 
active.

A 1000 mb Siberian low will move to Bristol Bay at 990 mb Wednesday 
afternoon. A North Pacific Low at 989 mb low 450 nm southwest of 
Shemya Wednesday morning will move to 400 nm southwest of Adak at 983
mb Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of 
bays and passes. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kts out of bays and passes. Seas 
14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of bays and passes. 
Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts up to 50 kts out of bays and passes. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
Bristol Bay-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
Unalaska Bay-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
Adak to Kiska-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
Kiska to Attu-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 PM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming N
after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 35 kt. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper-level pattern is marked by a broad longwave trough
extending across Alaska and into the Gulf, with a strong 200 kt
subtropical jet over the Aleutians on the southwestern periphery,
and a high-amplitude ridge situated to the east over the Canadian
Arctic, reaching up from the central United States. Near the base
of the shortwave is a broad gyre with weak embedded shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows cycling through it. These disturbances
have been producing gusty winds and bands of showers along the
north Gulf coast, with only scattered light precipitation able to
work its way beyond the coastal mountains as indicated on radar.
Wind and wave have been most significant today in association
with the northernmost impulse within the gyre where winds have
gusted to 45 kt (52 mph) at Middleton Island, and buoy 46082, to
the east, has recorded seas building to a significant wave height
of 20 ft. Out west, cold northerly winds continue to stream down
through the Bering and across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. As a result, these regions are experiencing widespread
gusty winds, and in the Pribilof Islands temperatures have fallen
into the mid 30s, allowing for snow flurries. The far western
reaches of the region are also beginning to see clouds streaming
in along a front ahead of the next low due to move through the
Aleutians through late Sunday night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Despite the forecast relying on the evolution of complex
interactions of weak and decaying features associated with the
gyre situated over the Gulf, there is generally good model
agreement synoptically. Smaller-scale discrepancies with the
details of these features will be mostly low impact over
Southcentral, with the main exception being the shortwave moving
inland over Southcentral through Sunday. Run to run inconsistency
with this feature increases uncertainty in the placement of
precipitation for the western Copper River Basin and Talkeetna
Mountains. Some model differences also remain with the forward
motion of the next low traversing the Aleutian Chain, especially
toward the end of the period on Monday, which may influence the
timing of the onset of gusty winds through gaps and passes along
the Alaska Peninsula and western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light north to northeasterly winds will
persist. Most of the precipitation moving over the mountains will
remain downsloped, though there remains a chance for showers in
the vicinity.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon)...

All the active weather is expected to mostly remain across the
Prince William Sound area south through the Gulf and Kodiak Island
for tonight into Sunday. Expect rain for low elevations with
mountain snow. Expect gale force winds with occasional storm force
gusts for the North Gulf of Alaska waters through this evening
before rapidly diminishing. Waves up to 25 ft are also expected
in this area through this evening before subsiding to 6 to 11
feet overnight. Winds were currently gusting in Seward (up to 20
kts- 25 mph) this afternoon with any gusty winds expected to
subside during the late evening to overnight hours. Steady rain is
expected to continue for Kodiak along with gusty north to north-
northwest winds through around midnight. Expect conditions to
slowly improve after midnight with any steady rain becoming more
showery for Kodiak. Also, winds will diminish after midnight as
the low pressure system continues moving south into the North
Pacific Sunday morning.

Next, an upper level shortwave is expected to move from southeast
to northwest across the Copper River Basin this evening through
Sunday. Expect some light snow showers for Gulkana, Glennallen,
over to Mendeltna. Any steadier, though, remaining light snow is
expected for the western Copper River Basin and the Eureka area.
Latest model guidance has eased off on the amount of moisture with
this system, therefore, lowered Eureka's expected snowfall
amounts to around 2 inches. As a result, anyone traveling the
Glenn Highway into the Basin or westward should slow down and use
caution as any snowfall will cause slippery conditions. The
heaviest snow with this event will remain in the Talkeetna
Mountains area and not along the road system. This shortwave
continues across the Talkeetnas Sunday bringing mainly rain to
Talkeetna and the Parks Highway area though, some snow may mix in
with little to no accumulation expected, especially along the
Parks Highway from Talkeetna north.

Third, a weak meso-low is expected to move through the central
Gulf Sunday morning through Monday with mainly small craft winds
tightly wrapped around the center.

Lastly, Monday evening through Tuesday will be turning slightly
colder across much of Southcentral and the Copper River Basin.
Therefore, expect the typical gaps and passes winds as the cold
air filters in. Also, expect gale force winds through the Barren
Islands region Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A benign weather pattern will continue across Southwest Alaska
over the next few days. An upper level wave will move across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay Sunday morning and bring snow
showers to the area. Transient upper level ridging will then move
in the wake of the upper level wave on Monday. This upper level
ridging will bring an increase in sunshine and decrease in snow shower
activity over the area. The next weak upper-level wave will move
in on Tuesday and bring the next round of snow showers to the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds across the eastern Aleutians will gradually ease this
evening and tonight. The next storm system will move into the
western Bering/Aleutians tonight. Storm force winds are expected
in the western Aleutians tonight through mid-day Sunday before
gradually easing from west to east. Storm force winds are expected
along the northern coastal waters of the central Aleutians early
Sunday afternoon. This storm will gradually weaken as it
continues to move eastward, though widespread gale force winds are
expected across the central Aleutians through late Sunday night.
The pattern then becomes quieter on Monday as transient high
pressure gradually moves in from the west. Brisk westerly winds
are expected on Tuesday as pressure gradients will sharpen across
the area. These westerly winds will remain below gale force.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

A well developed low in the central Gulf will reach the east Gulf
Coast on Wednesday and dissipate. Northwesterly gale force gap
winds are likely through the Alaska Peninsula stretching to the
Barren Islands until Wednesday morning. Seas to 18 feet south of
Kodiak Island will diminish Wednesday.

A low develops over the Bering by Tuesday afternoon and tracks
over the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday and will likely be located
over Kodiak Island by Thursday morning. Forecast confidence is
high for high end gales across the Bering from late Tuesday night
until Thursday. Seas to 15 feet are likely across the central and
southern Bering on Wednesday and will subside Thursday.

A new low approaches the western Aleutians early Thursday
morning. However, forecast confidence with this low is extremely
low at this time. Some models indicate near storm force winds
while others indicate small craft winds. This area of the forecast
will continue to be refined over the next few days.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Overall, there is decent model consensus through the end of the
week and entering the weekend. Each solution is pointing towards
a broad longwave trough pattern developing across Southern Alaska,
including both the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. This
pattern features a North Pacific low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska by Wednesday, while a separate system moves southwards out
of Russia across the Bering, both of which are expected to produce
some form of precipitation for their respective areas. The chance
for snow increases as elevation increases. The Gulf low moves
onshore over Prince William Sound by Thursday and fizzles out,
meanwhile, the Bering low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into
the Gulf. This is when model spread begins to grow. There are some
timing issues as to when the low moves over Kodiak, but most
solutions agree on turning to a northerly track moving up Cook
Inlet.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 173-178.
		 Gale Warning 119 120 131 132 150 155 165 170-172 352 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/KM