Gale Warning 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

980 
FZAK62 PAFC 242316
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251315-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located near 52N 180W, is currently 
active.

A 973 mb low near 52N 168W moves to 53N 149W remaining at 973 mb 
Tuesday afternoon. A 1000 mb low develops off of the Siberian 
coast Tuesday evening and moves near 60N 176W at 996 mb Wednesday
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper-level pattern is marked by a broad longwave trough
extending across Alaska and into the Gulf, with a strong 200 kt
subtropical jet over the Aleutians on the southwestern periphery,
and a high-amplitude ridge situated to the east over the Canadian
Arctic, reaching up from the central United States. Near the base
of the shortwave is a broad gyre with weak embedded shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows cycling through it. These disturbances
have been producing gusty winds and bands of showers along the
north Gulf coast, with only scattered light precipitation able to
work its way beyond the coastal mountains as indicated on radar.
Wind and wave have been most significant today in association
with the northernmost impulse within the gyre where winds have
gusted to 45 kt (52 mph) at Middleton Island, and buoy 46082, to
the east, has recorded seas building to a significant wave height
of 20 ft. Out west, cold northerly winds continue to stream down
through the Bering and across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. As a result, these regions are experiencing widespread
gusty winds, and in the Pribilof Islands temperatures have fallen
into the mid 30s, allowing for snow flurries. The far western
reaches of the region are also beginning to see clouds streaming
in along a front ahead of the next low due to move through the
Aleutians through late Sunday night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Despite the forecast relying on the evolution of complex
interactions of weak and decaying features associated with the
gyre situated over the Gulf, there is generally good model
agreement synoptically. Smaller-scale discrepancies with the
details of these features will be mostly low impact over
Southcentral, with the main exception being the shortwave moving
inland over Southcentral through Sunday. Run to run inconsistency
with this feature increases uncertainty in the placement of
precipitation for the western Copper River Basin and Talkeetna
Mountains. Some model differences also remain with the forward
motion of the next low traversing the Aleutian Chain, especially
toward the end of the period on Monday, which may influence the
timing of the onset of gusty winds through gaps and passes along
the Alaska Peninsula and western Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light north to northeasterly winds will
persist. Most of the precipitation moving over the mountains will
remain downsloped, though there remains a chance for showers in
the vicinity.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon)...

All the active weather is expected to mostly remain across the
Prince William Sound area south through the Gulf and Kodiak Island
for tonight into Sunday. Expect rain for low elevations with
mountain snow. Expect gale force winds with occasional storm force
gusts for the North Gulf of Alaska waters through this evening
before rapidly diminishing. Waves up to 25 ft are also expected
in this area through this evening before subsiding to 6 to 11
feet overnight. Winds were currently gusting in Seward (up to 20
kts- 25 mph) this afternoon with any gusty winds expected to
subside during the late evening to overnight hours. Steady rain is
expected to continue for Kodiak along with gusty north to north-
northwest winds through around midnight. Expect conditions to
slowly improve after midnight with any steady rain becoming more
showery for Kodiak. Also, winds will diminish after midnight as
the low pressure system continues moving south into the North
Pacific Sunday morning.

Next, an upper level shortwave is expected to move from southeast
to northwest across the Copper River Basin this evening through
Sunday. Expect some light snow showers for Gulkana, Glennallen,
over to Mendeltna. Any steadier, though, remaining light snow is
expected for the western Copper River Basin and the Eureka area.
Latest model guidance has eased off on the amount of moisture with
this system, therefore, lowered Eureka's expected snowfall
amounts to around 2 inches. As a result, anyone traveling the
Glenn Highway into the Basin or westward should slow down and use
caution as any snowfall will cause slippery conditions. The
heaviest snow with this event will remain in the Talkeetna
Mountains area and not along the road system. This shortwave
continues across the Talkeetnas Sunday bringing mainly rain to
Talkeetna and the Parks Highway area though, some snow may mix in
with little to no accumulation expected, especially along the
Parks Highway from Talkeetna north.

Third, a weak meso-low is expected to move through the central
Gulf Sunday morning through Monday with mainly small craft winds
tightly wrapped around the center.

Lastly, Monday evening through Tuesday will be turning slightly
colder across much of Southcentral and the Copper River Basin.
Therefore, expect the typical gaps and passes winds as the cold
air filters in. Also, expect gale force winds through the Barren
Islands region Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A benign weather pattern will continue across Southwest Alaska
over the next few days. An upper level wave will move across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay Sunday morning and bring snow
showers to the area. Transient upper level ridging will then move
in the wake of the upper level wave on Monday. This upper level
ridging will bring an increase in sunshine and decrease in snow shower
activity over the area. The next weak upper-level wave will move
in on Tuesday and bring the next round of snow showers to the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds across the eastern Aleutians will gradually ease this
evening and tonight. The next storm system will move into the
western Bering/Aleutians tonight. Storm force winds are expected
in the western Aleutians tonight through mid-day Sunday before
gradually easing from west to east. Storm force winds are expected
along the northern coastal waters of the central Aleutians early
Sunday afternoon. This storm will gradually weaken as it
continues to move eastward, though widespread gale force winds are
expected across the central Aleutians through late Sunday night.
The pattern then becomes quieter on Monday as transient high
pressure gradually moves in from the west. Brisk westerly winds
are expected on Tuesday as pressure gradients will sharpen across
the area. These westerly winds will remain below gale force.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

A well developed low in the central Gulf will reach the east Gulf
Coast on Wednesday and dissipate. Northwesterly gale force gap
winds are likely through the Alaska Peninsula stretching to the
Barren Islands until Wednesday morning. Seas to 18 feet south of
Kodiak Island will diminish Wednesday.

A low develops over the Bering by Tuesday afternoon and tracks
over the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday and will likely be located
over Kodiak Island by Thursday morning. Forecast confidence is
high for high end gales across the Bering from late Tuesday night
until Thursday. Seas to 15 feet are likely across the central and
southern Bering on Wednesday and will subside Thursday.

A new low approaches the western Aleutians early Thursday
morning. However, forecast confidence with this low is extremely
low at this time. Some models indicate near storm force winds
while others indicate small craft winds. This area of the forecast
will continue to be refined over the next few days.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Overall, there is decent model consensus through the end of the
week and entering the weekend. Each solution is pointing towards
a broad longwave trough pattern developing across Southern Alaska,
including both the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. This
pattern features a North Pacific low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska by Wednesday, while a separate system moves southwards out
of Russia across the Bering, both of which are expected to produce
some form of precipitation for their respective areas. The chance
for snow increases as elevation increases. The Gulf low moves
onshore over Prince William Sound by Thursday and fizzles out,
meanwhile, the Bering low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into
the Gulf. This is when model spread begins to grow. There are some
timing issues as to when the low moves over Kodiak, but most
solutions agree on turning to a northerly track moving up Cook
Inlet.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 173-178.
		 Gale Warning 119 120 131 132 150 155 165 170-172 352 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/KM