Small Craft Advisory 827, NWS Anchorage, AK

400 
FZAK51 PAFC 181206 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190315-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 mb low 90 nm northwest of Kodiak City drifts to 35 nm south of
Homer at 979 mb Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-190315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190315-
Resurrection Bay-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190315-
Prince William Sound-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190315-
Port Valdez-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190315-
Valdez Narrows-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190315-
Valdez Arm-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190315-
Passage Canal-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190315-
Barren Islands East-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, N wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190315-
Chiniak Bay-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft 
subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190315-
Marmot Bay-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190315-
Shelikof Strait-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-190315-
Kachemak Bay-
406 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas  5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 182336
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191245-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 mb low will develop 270 nm southeast of Cordova this 
evening and will move 70 nm east of Kodiak City at 979 mb Tuesday
afternoon. The low then moves inland Wednesday morning. A second 
986 mb low will move 270 nm southeast of Cordova Wednesday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-191245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-191245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-191245-
Resurrection Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-191245-
Prince William Sound-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-191245-
Port Valdez-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-191245-
Valdez Narrows-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-191245-
Valdez Arm-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-191245-
Passage Canal-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-191245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-191245-
Barren Islands East-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-191245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-191245-
Chiniak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-191245-
Marmot Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-191245-
Shelikof Strait-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-191245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-191245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-191245-
Kachemak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

190 
FZAK51 PAFC 191207
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-200100-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 mb low 100 nm south of Middleton Island moves to 40 nm 
southwest of Seward at 979 mb Tue afternoon. The low then moves 
inland through Tue night. A 984 mb low develops 60 nm south of 
Chiniak Tue night, then moves to 60 nm east of Seldovia at 996 mb Wed
night.

$$

PKZ119-200100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 25 kt becoming
SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-200100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-200100-
Resurrection Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-200100-
Prince William Sound-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-200100-
Port Valdez-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-200100-
Valdez Narrows-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-200100-
Valdez Arm-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-200100-
Passage Canal-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-200100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-200100-
Barren Islands East-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-200100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-200100-
Chiniak Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-200100-
Marmot Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-200100-
Shelikof Strait-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-200100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-200100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-200100-
Kachemak Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

051 
FZAK51 PAFC 192358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-201315-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 977 mb low 125 nm northeast of Kodiak City this afternoon will 
move inland tonight. A second 982 mb low 300 nm southeast of
Cordova Tuesday night will move 40 nm southwest of Cordova at 987
mb Wednesday afternoon. The low then moves inland Wednesday 
evening. A front enters the western Gulf Thursday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-201315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-201315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-201315-
Resurrection Bay-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S wind 25 kt in the evening. 
Diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-201315-
Prince William Sound-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-201315-
Port Valdez-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-201315-
Valdez Narrows-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-201315-
Valdez Arm-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt
after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-201315-
Passage Canal-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-201315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-201315-
Barren Islands East-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-201315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-201315-
Chiniak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-201315-
Marmot Bay-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-201315-
Shelikof Strait-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-201315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-201315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-201315-
Kachemak Bay-
358 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low extends across the entirety of the Bering
and western half of the state while two ridge axes flank either
side; one over the western Aleutians and one over the
Panhandle/Yukon border. A strong 180 knot jet streak at 300 mb has
helped to create a more amplified pattern. Satellite imagery shows
multiple low centers over Bristol Bay, Alaska Peninsula and far
western Gulf. While the main low center is placed over Bristol
Bay, several smaller mesoscale lows are visible. Gusty
southeasterly winds have persisted across Kodiak Island, the
northern Gulf waters, and the northern Gulf coast as a strong front
associated with this low tracks across the Gulf. Additionally, on
the backside of the low, northerly winds over the central Bering
have produced storm force winds to the Pribilofs with Saint
George Island reaching gusts of 58 knots this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement until Tuesday. The
biggest forecast challenge has been the interaction of the
decaying low over the Gulf with an inbound upper level trough
from the west. With multiple shortwaves and pulses of energy at
play, it is unclear how the forecast will play out midweek.
Models typically struggle with smaller scale features like this,
and thus, have much lower confidence in the forecast for Tuesday
and beyond for the Southcentral area. Out west, there is good
model agreement on the arrival of a Kamchatka low over the
northern Bering midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue. Gusty
southeasterly flow through Turnagain Arm will keep persistent wind
shear through the late evening hours.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Tuesday evening)...

A strong front has now lifted over the southern Gulf and remains
nearly directly over Kodiak Island, with its large parent low now
crossing over the AKPen and into the western Gulf. Winds up to
storm force will continue ahead of the front over the southern
gulf overnight tonight as the low drifts farther southeast
towards the North Pacific through Monday morning. To the north,
strong onshore and southeasterly flow will continue to support
areas of rain and higher elevation snow tonight along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Areas out over the Mat-
Su Valleys will continue to see little more than occasional
sprinkles or flurries tonight due to the strong cross-barrier and
downslope flow drying out the lower atmosphere. Moderate rain and
easterly winds gusting up to 50 mph will also continue for Kodiak
as the front stalls and pivots back south of the island again
through Monday.

As the large low pressure system moves out over the southern Gulf
on Monday, it will stall out in place and continue to send
continuous gale force winds and 20 ft seas or greater across
nearly all of the northern Gulf. Precipitation will let up along
the Kenai Peninsula and Gulf coast through Monday evening as low
level winds become more easterly and upslope enhancement
diminishes.

The outlook for the remainder of the forecast period becomes both
increasingly complex and uncertain, with a deep upper trough
expected to move into Southwest Alaska on Tuesday and
significantly alter the trajectory of the Gulf low. This second
system will continue to move east across the Alaska Peninsula as a
strong ridge builds over the Yukon and western mainland. This
should cause the Gulf system to retrograde northwest back
towards the southern mainland, eventually merging with the
Southwest upper trough as it moves inland over Southcentral on
Tuesday evening. At the surface, one or more smaller low centers
could develop along the front still stalled over the northern and
eastern Gulf and accelerate northwest towards the coast on
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The net impact of this interaction will
be to bring rain and high elevation snow inland on Tuesday, with
higher chances again focused along the Gulf coast. Depending on
where the smaller low(s) move ashore, strong southeast gap winds
could also develop as well, including along the Turnagain Arm and
higher elevations of east Anchorage through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a broad upper level trough that
encompasses Southwest Alaska and much of the Bering. At the
surface there is a low east of the Pribilof Islands and a second
low near Kamchatka. The radars at Bethel and King Salmon are still
showing showers this afternoon. The low east of the Pribilof
Islands will dive southeastward and cross Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula this evening. The pressure gradient is still
robust with this low, so expect gusty winds over the Eastern
Aleutians for tonight and into tomorrow. The models hint at the
possibility of light showers south of King Salmon and Pilot Point
due to wrap around moisture. There is a transient ridge between
the two lows that will push eastward. By Monday morning, the
Kamchatka low is expected to have a surface pressure of around
969 mb and by Monday evening, the leading edge of the
precipitation shield is forecast to be at Nunivak Island. By
Tuesday morning, models show the surface low will be just north
of St Matthew Island at approximately 975 mb with the front
expected to bring moisture to Chevak, Kipnuk and Bethel. By
Wednesday morning the low is expected to be north of Nunivak
Island and weakening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a broad upper level trough that
encompasses much of the Bering. At the surface there is a low east
of the Pribilof Islands and a second low near Kamchatka. Looking
at satellite imagery, there is a fetch of modified tropical
moisture entrained into the front of the Kamchatka low. The low
east of the Pribs will dive southeastward and cross the Alaska
Peninsula this evening. The pressure gradient is still robust with
this low, so expect gusty winds over the Eastern Aleutians for
tonight and into tomorrow. There is a transient ridge between the
two lows that will push eastward. By Monday morning, models show
the Kamchatka low will have a surface pressure of 969 mb which
will bring widespread gusty winds, enhanced seas and precipitation
into the Western and Central Bering. By Tuesday morning the
surface low is forecast to be just north of St Matthew Island at
approximately 975 mb. By Wednesday morning the low will have
weakened to 979 mb and it will be north of Nunivak Island.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Forecast confidence remains above average on Wednesday as guidance
shows similar solutions with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features. However, forecast confidence
significantly decreases on Thursday as the next low pressure
system enters the western Bering/Aleutians as guidance shows
significant differences with respect to the placement and
intensity of this low. One common theme is gale force winds are
likely in the southern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Chain
Thursday and Friday.

Gulf of Alaska

Forecast confidence remains above average for Wednesday as
guidance shows similar solutions with respect to the placement and
intensity of synoptic scale features. Gale force winds across the
northern Gulf will ease on Wednesday with the weakening of a
barrier jet. Confidence is high that winds will remain below gale
force on Thursday as a transient ridge of high pressure moves
across the Gulf. Confidence decreases during the forecast period
on Friday as the next low moves into the vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A cloudy, cool and wet pattern is expected for Southcentral
during the extended period. A positively tilted upper trough will
extend from the northern Bering Sea through the central Gulf of
Alaska. This pattern will allow for moisture to advect from the
Gulf into Southcentral as the trough-axis will remain southwest of
the Kenai Penunsula and thus result in southeasterly onshore flow.
Lower confidence exists with respect to precipitation type. Snow
chances increase as elevation increases.

Southwest will also remain cloudy and cool during the extended
period. Showers and intermittent precipitation is likely, though
steady precipitation is less likely due to the southeasterly flow
downsloping on the Alaska Range.

The Bering/Aleutians will remain in a cloudy and cool pattern as
broad upper troughing will continue to extend across the area. We
are monitoring the potential for a large low pressure system
moving from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea on
Thursday/Friday. Forecast confidence rermains low with respect to
the placement and intensity of the low center. However, there are
more similarities between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/EPS with
respect to the placement and intensity of this low, meaning for
now a GFS/ECMWF ensemble blend is the preferred solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 351, 352.
         Gale Warning: 119-120, 130-132, 136-139, 150, 155, 160,
                       165, 170-174, 177-178, 185, 411-414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED