Small Craft Advisory 826, NWS Anchorage, AK

045 
FZAK52 PAFC 182346
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191245-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low 580 nm north of Shemya this afternoon will move to 430 
nm northwest of Bethel at 979 mb Tuesday afternoon. The low then 
remains nearly stationary and weakens to 992 mb Wednesday afternoon. 
A second 976 mb North Pacific low will move to 50 nm south of Shemya
Wednesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-191245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except NW 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191245-
Bristol Bay-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI AND SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191245-
Unalaska Bay-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191245-
Adak to Kiska-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191245-
Kiska to Attu-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

553 
FZAK52 PAFC 191033
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-192315-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low 160 nm northwest of Saint Matthew Island drifts to 
230 nm north of Saint Lawrence Island at 983 mb early Thu morning. 
A second 978 mb Northwest Pacific low treks toward the western 
Aleutians 200 nm southwest of Shemya Wed afternoon. The strengthening 
low then advances across the central Bering to 185 nm north of Atka 
at 956 mb early Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-192315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-192315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-192315-
Bristol Bay-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-192315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ170-192315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ171-192315-
Unalaska Bay-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-192315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-192315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-192315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-192315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-192315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-192315-
Adak to Kiska-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-192315-
Kiska to Attu-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-192315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-192315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-192315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-192315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low extends across the entirety of the Bering
and western half of the state while two ridge axes flank either
side; one over the western Aleutians and one over the
Panhandle/Yukon border. A strong 180 knot jet streak at 300 mb has
helped to create a more amplified pattern. Satellite imagery shows
multiple low centers over Bristol Bay, Alaska Peninsula and far
western Gulf. While the main low center is placed over Bristol
Bay, several smaller mesoscale lows are visible. Gusty
southeasterly winds have persisted across Kodiak Island, the
northern Gulf waters, and the northern Gulf coast as a strong front
associated with this low tracks across the Gulf. Additionally, on
the backside of the low, northerly winds over the central Bering
have produced storm force winds to the Pribilofs with Saint
George Island reaching gusts of 58 knots this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement until Tuesday. The
biggest forecast challenge has been the interaction of the
decaying low over the Gulf with an inbound upper level trough
from the west. With multiple shortwaves and pulses of energy at
play, it is unclear how the forecast will play out midweek.
Models typically struggle with smaller scale features like this,
and thus, have much lower confidence in the forecast for Tuesday
and beyond for the Southcentral area. Out west, there is good
model agreement on the arrival of a Kamchatka low over the
northern Bering midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue. Gusty
southeasterly flow through Turnagain Arm will keep persistent wind
shear through the late evening hours.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Tuesday evening)...

A strong front has now lifted over the southern Gulf and remains
nearly directly over Kodiak Island, with its large parent low now
crossing over the AKPen and into the western Gulf. Winds up to
storm force will continue ahead of the front over the southern
gulf overnight tonight as the low drifts farther southeast
towards the North Pacific through Monday morning. To the north,
strong onshore and southeasterly flow will continue to support
areas of rain and higher elevation snow tonight along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Areas out over the Mat-
Su Valleys will continue to see little more than occasional
sprinkles or flurries tonight due to the strong cross-barrier and
downslope flow drying out the lower atmosphere. Moderate rain and
easterly winds gusting up to 50 mph will also continue for Kodiak
as the front stalls and pivots back south of the island again
through Monday.

As the large low pressure system moves out over the southern Gulf
on Monday, it will stall out in place and continue to send
continuous gale force winds and 20 ft seas or greater across
nearly all of the northern Gulf. Precipitation will let up along
the Kenai Peninsula and Gulf coast through Monday evening as low
level winds become more easterly and upslope enhancement
diminishes.

The outlook for the remainder of the forecast period becomes both
increasingly complex and uncertain, with a deep upper trough
expected to move into Southwest Alaska on Tuesday and
significantly alter the trajectory of the Gulf low. This second
system will continue to move east across the Alaska Peninsula as a
strong ridge builds over the Yukon and western mainland. This
should cause the Gulf system to retrograde northwest back
towards the southern mainland, eventually merging with the
Southwest upper trough as it moves inland over Southcentral on
Tuesday evening. At the surface, one or more smaller low centers
could develop along the front still stalled over the northern and
eastern Gulf and accelerate northwest towards the coast on
Tuesday or Tuesday night. The net impact of this interaction will
be to bring rain and high elevation snow inland on Tuesday, with
higher chances again focused along the Gulf coast. Depending on
where the smaller low(s) move ashore, strong southeast gap winds
could also develop as well, including along the Turnagain Arm and
higher elevations of east Anchorage through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a broad upper level trough that
encompasses Southwest Alaska and much of the Bering. At the
surface there is a low east of the Pribilof Islands and a second
low near Kamchatka. The radars at Bethel and King Salmon are still
showing showers this afternoon. The low east of the Pribilof
Islands will dive southeastward and cross Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula this evening. The pressure gradient is still
robust with this low, so expect gusty winds over the Eastern
Aleutians for tonight and into tomorrow. The models hint at the
possibility of light showers south of King Salmon and Pilot Point
due to wrap around moisture. There is a transient ridge between
the two lows that will push eastward. By Monday morning, the
Kamchatka low is expected to have a surface pressure of around
969 mb and by Monday evening, the leading edge of the
precipitation shield is forecast to be at Nunivak Island. By
Tuesday morning, models show the surface low will be just north
of St Matthew Island at approximately 975 mb with the front
expected to bring moisture to Chevak, Kipnuk and Bethel. By
Wednesday morning the low is expected to be north of Nunivak
Island and weakening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a broad upper level trough that
encompasses much of the Bering. At the surface there is a low east
of the Pribilof Islands and a second low near Kamchatka. Looking
at satellite imagery, there is a fetch of modified tropical
moisture entrained into the front of the Kamchatka low. The low
east of the Pribs will dive southeastward and cross the Alaska
Peninsula this evening. The pressure gradient is still robust with
this low, so expect gusty winds over the Eastern Aleutians for
tonight and into tomorrow. There is a transient ridge between the
two lows that will push eastward. By Monday morning, models show
the Kamchatka low will have a surface pressure of 969 mb which
will bring widespread gusty winds, enhanced seas and precipitation
into the Western and Central Bering. By Tuesday morning the
surface low is forecast to be just north of St Matthew Island at
approximately 975 mb. By Wednesday morning the low will have
weakened to 979 mb and it will be north of Nunivak Island.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Forecast confidence remains above average on Wednesday as guidance
shows similar solutions with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features. However, forecast confidence
significantly decreases on Thursday as the next low pressure
system enters the western Bering/Aleutians as guidance shows
significant differences with respect to the placement and
intensity of this low. One common theme is gale force winds are
likely in the southern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Chain
Thursday and Friday.

Gulf of Alaska

Forecast confidence remains above average for Wednesday as
guidance shows similar solutions with respect to the placement and
intensity of synoptic scale features. Gale force winds across the
northern Gulf will ease on Wednesday with the weakening of a
barrier jet. Confidence is high that winds will remain below gale
force on Thursday as a transient ridge of high pressure moves
across the Gulf. Confidence decreases during the forecast period
on Friday as the next low moves into the vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A cloudy, cool and wet pattern is expected for Southcentral
during the extended period. A positively tilted upper trough will
extend from the northern Bering Sea through the central Gulf of
Alaska. This pattern will allow for moisture to advect from the
Gulf into Southcentral as the trough-axis will remain southwest of
the Kenai Penunsula and thus result in southeasterly onshore flow.
Lower confidence exists with respect to precipitation type. Snow
chances increase as elevation increases.

Southwest will also remain cloudy and cool during the extended
period. Showers and intermittent precipitation is likely, though
steady precipitation is less likely due to the southeasterly flow
downsloping on the Alaska Range.

The Bering/Aleutians will remain in a cloudy and cool pattern as
broad upper troughing will continue to extend across the area. We
are monitoring the potential for a large low pressure system
moving from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea on
Thursday/Friday. Forecast confidence rermains low with respect to
the placement and intensity of the low center. However, there are
more similarities between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/EPS with
respect to the placement and intensity of this low, meaning for
now a GFS/ECMWF ensemble blend is the preferred solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 351, 352.
         Gale Warning: 119-120, 130-132, 136-139, 150, 155, 160,
                       165, 170-174, 177-178, 185, 411-414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED