Small Craft Advisory 817, NWS Anchorage, AK

296 
FZAK52 PAFC 141217
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi volcano, located 140 nautical miles west of Adak, is
currently active.

An elongated 997 mb low 220 nm west of Saint Paul moves to 50 nm
south of Sand Point at 997 mb Thu afternoon. The low continues 
into the North Pacific Thu evening. A strong front moves into the 
western Aleutians Thu night and continues moving to the eastern 
Bering Fri night.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt except NW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
417 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 25 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt 
becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

602 
FZAK52 PAFC 142358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151315-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

An elongated 998 mb low 50 nm south of Sand Point exits into the 
North Pacific tonight. A 967 mb low 295 nm northwest of Shemya 
Fri night moves to 240 nm north of Kiska at 970 mb Sat afternoon. The
associated front moves into the Western Aleutians Thu night and 
reaches the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151315-
Bristol Bay-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except NW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151315-
Unalaska Bay-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151315-
Adak to Kiska-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151315-
Kiska to Attu-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt 
becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE
35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt.
Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

697 
FZAK52 PAFC 151221
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160100-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A complex 990 mb low 360 nm west of Attu Island moves to 300 nm
northwest of Attu Island at 968 mb Fri night. The low continues 
to 80 nm southeast of Saint Paul at 975 mb Sat night. Its 
associated strong front moves from the western Bering to the 
eastern Bering Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-160100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 10 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160100-
Bristol Bay-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. From Port 
Moller E, S wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming W 25 in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160100-
Unalaska Bay-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
10 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160100-
Adak to Kiska-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
building to 22 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160100-
Kiska to Attu-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

160 
FZAK52 PAFC 160000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161300-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A complex 979 mb low 300 nm north of Attu Island moves across the
Bering through Sun afternoon. Its associated strong front moves 
from the western Bering to the eastern Bering Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161300-
Bristol Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt becoming SE
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161300-
Unalaska Bay-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161300-
Adak to Kiska-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
building to 20 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161300-
Kiska to Attu-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 20 kt increasing to
35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The synoptic flow across much of Southern Alaska is rather weak as
the area remains under a broad longwave trough. The main jet
stream is moving from Eastern Russia across the southern Bering
Sea and across the North Pacific towards western North America
(British Columbia to be more exact). Therefore, the main storm
track remains south of the mainland though every so often some
pieces of energy are working their way northward. Embedded in
the aforementioned trough are multiple pieces of upper level
energy moving through the weak flow. As a result, one of these
weak embedded shortwaves was bringing light rain to places such as
Cape Newenham, Togiak, Dillingham, Clark's Point, and Manokotak
this morning. Another one of these weak pieces of energy was also
bringing light snow to Eureka in the Copper River Basin earlier in
the night which since ended and the area has cleared out. However,
further east, a low stratus deck remains for Gulkana. Much of
Southcentral remains quiet and dry though this morning with areas
of clear sky and other spots of low to mid level clouds. Kenai and
Soldotna were two places experiencing mid level clouds this
morning with Homer a bit lower with around a 3000 ft ceiling. As a
result of this, temperatures have remained above freezing due to
this cloud cover. Areas where it is clear such Talkeetna,
Anchorage Bowl, and the Matanuska Valley have dipped below
freezing with widespread mid to upper 20s and a few areas of low
30s.

Lastly, the Bering is currently under mainly northwesterly flow as
the cold air is flowing over the relatively warm water surface in
the Bering leading to unstable conditions. This can be seen on
nighttime microphysics imagery this morning as the puffy looking
cumulus clouds moving from northwest to southeast. The Pribilofs
were observing gusty winds as a result with gusts as high as 31
kts (36 mph) so far. These winds were also occurring in places
such as Port Heiden, Nelson Lagoon, Cold Bay, Sand Point, and
Dutch Harbor.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models are in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features out through Day 3. Then the devil is in the details of
what happens with all these different pieces of energy moving
around the base of this longwave trough over Southern Alaska.
While model guidance shows a rather potent but stretched out piece
of upper level energy, figuring out exactly how each of these
pieces of energy outside of the main piece will affect the
sensible weather is the task at hand. Looking at the bigger
picture across model guidance and blocking out the all noise we
see overall a trough lifting northward into Southcentral for
Wednesday night through Thursday night/Friday. This is important
because it is creating a challenging forecast in terms of
precipitation type for the Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska Valley, Kenai
Peninsula, etc. See the Southcentral AFD section for further
details.

Lastly, the other item of interest will be this next low that
moves southeastward across the southern Bering Sea. While all
model guidance agrees on this system driving southeastward pulling
down much colder air as it does so, the question will be how
strong will winds get in Dutch Harbor. The NAM remains the
strongest solution along with the coldest air with the GFS and EC
about a degree or two warmer. This will influence exactly how
strong the winds become and hence why this part of the forecast
was left untouched. See the Southwest section of the AFD for
further details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for a majority
of the TAF package with light winds. Beginning around 14/08Z,
expecting some light rain to move into the terminal, though with
conditions still mainly VFR. It is around 14/12z that model
guidance begins to lower ceilings at the terminal to MVFR along
with a rain/snow mix. Some guidance is even hinting at IFR
conditions but this was left out for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

The forecast for Southcentral over the next couple of days is
looking more impactful than previous model guidance indicated.
The key feature is a short-wave trough along the Southwest Alaska
coast this morning. It will track eastward toward the northwest
Gulf and Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. After this point, it
begins to evolve and model guidance disagrees on the shape and
track of the wave. One commonality among the guidance is to rotate
at least some of the energy northward into Southecentral overnight
tonight through Thursday, possibly lingering over Southcentral all
the way through Friday. A corresponding weak surface low will
deepen a bit out ahead of the upper level wave, settling in Prince
William Sound on Thursday. Despite the uncertainty with the
evolution of the upper wave, this pattern favors precipitation
across Prince William Sound, the Kenai Peninsula and on up to
Anchorage. If the wave takes a more northward track, precipitation
could spread farther inland. For now, have focused on upping PoPs
to likely for the most favored areas. The precipitation-type
forecast is also a challenge. Snow levels are sitting roughly at
1000 to 2000 feet along the coastal zone, but colder air will
filter in with the upper trough. Expect precipitation to develop
as all rain at/near sea level this afternoon through tonight, but
then transition to a rain/snow mix or even all snow by Thursday
morning. Those areas which see the heaviest precipitation will
go to all snow more quickly. Right now, the heaviest precipitation
appears likely over the Kenai Peninsula, but with potential that
some of this could spread north and west toward Anchorage. There
are too many unknowns to really nail down the snow accumulation
forecast at this point. The best bet is for multiple inches at
higher elevations, including Turnagain Pass and the Anchorage and
Eagle River hillsides. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the
forecast. This is not a big, strong storm, but it is often the
weaker features which bring accumulating snow to Anchorage.

Meanwhile, a strong subtropical jet will continue to drive systems
from the Bering Sea/Aleutians eastward across the Gulf of Alaska.
None of the storms or upper waves look very strong, but the
overall wind field across the southern Gulf and Kodiak Island
waters will remain elevated. Bouts of cold air advection though
the Alaska Peninsula will occasionally produce stronger gap winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Light rain, increased cloudiness, and cold overnight temperatures
are expected across much of Southwest Alaska through the next few
days. A broad upper-level trough across Southwest Coast this
morning will move inland through tonight. As the vort max crosses
Bristol Bay for the western Gulf this evening, the potential for
increased rain could materialize along the western foothills of
Alaska Range tonight. This wet spell could continue into Thursday
as the upper trough and low re-strengthens while curving northwest
through the northern portion of the Alaska Range. Temperatures
will continue declining especially for the lower Kuskokwim between
Thursday and Friday. The potential for mix rain/snow is in the
forecast especially along the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday)...

Gales and a small-scale area of storm force winds, and large seas
are expected in response to the next low approaching the
Aleutians and the central Bering tonight into Thu afternoon.
Friday, another broad front will build across the Bering, bringing
gales and large seas across the forecast area. Most of the
precipitation from the first low will be concentrated over the
eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula and the Pribilofs, as
well as along the eastern Bering. Rain showers will be the most
likely result, but light snow is feasible along the higher
elevations as well. Heaviest precipitation is expected for the
second low on Friday, bringing another round of strong winds and
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low tracking into the Gulf from the Bering on
Friday will have the potential to produce southerly and easterly
gales along a front ahead of the system through Saturday evening.
Friday night into Saturday morning in the lee of the low there is
also the potential for localized areas of gusty northwesterly
gale force winds to develop out of gaps and passes in the western
Gulf. Seas are likely to remain below 20 ft.

Bering Sea: A low exiting the Bering will produce widespread gales
with localized potential for storm-force winds near the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen before diminishing through Friday morning.
Seas will approach 20 ft in the southern Bering and eastern
Aleutians, subsiding Friday. A large, well-developed low
approaches the western Aleutians on Friday. Its front sweeps
eastward through the Bering and Aleutians producing widespread
southeasterly gales with localized storm-force winds. On Saturday,
the low enters the western Bering with the potential for a swath
of storm-force winds across the western Aleutians through Sunday
morning. Seas building to 20 to 30 ft may occur in the vicinity
of the western Aleutians Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Models continue to stay in reasonably close agreement for much of
the extended range, but increasing uncertainty still emerges by
early next week. A Bering low and front will be producing active
weather out west for the beginning of the period on Saturday.
Moderate rainfall and gusty small craft to gale level southeast
winds along the front likely will be ongoing over the Pribilofs
and Eastern Aleutians on Saturday morning, advancing east with the
front during the day into the AKPen and near portions of the
Southwest coastline. Farther west and to the south of the Bering
low, stronger winds at or near storm force and more showery
rainfall should spread across the Western Aleutians, similarly
advancing towards the Eastern Aleutians with time on Saturday as
the low moves near or just south of the Pribilofs late in the day.

By Sunday, the Bering low will cross into or reform over the
western Gulf, becoming a large, deep and increasingly stacked
system as it moves slowly into the southern or central Gulf
through Monday morning. Some model differences become more
apparent by this stage, with some spread in the track of the
center as it transitions from the eastern Bering into the Gulf.
Some of the global operational solutions, such as the
Canadian/ECMWF, attempt to bring the low across the northern AKPen
and Kodiak Island and spread inland precipitation across parts of
the southern mainland between Sunday and Monday. However, this
track lies significantly north of the global ensemble consensus,
with some members even keeping the low south of the Gulf and out
over open North Pacific waters by Sunday evening. This would favor
more limited impacts over the southern interior keeping most
areas drier, with higher winds and rain generally limited to
coastal areas or offshore through Monday. A sharp ridge axis will
also move into the Bering on Sunday, helping to support strong
northerly flow and cold air advection on the backside of the low
moving over the Gulf. This could result in a period of fierce gap
winds gusting as high as storm force along and south of the
southern AKPen and Eastern Aleutians between late Sunday and early
Monday.

For the remainder of the forecast period between late Monday and
Tuesday, another low will likely enter the northern Bering from
Siberia/Kamchatka while the stacked Gulf low pivots north and
slowly weakens. This should flatten out the ridge sandwiched in
between the two synoptic systems, allowing the upper level lows
respectively associated with the two systems to merge on Tuesday
to form an open, negatively-tilted longwave stretching between the
western Gulf and northern Bering. Depending on how the orientation
of the combined system sets up, this could initiate a weak
southerly flow and trend towards warming temperatures over
Southcentral along with increasing rain/snow chances through
Tuesday evening.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 173 175
 Gale Warning 411 413 132 170 171 172 174 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/AS