Small Craft Advisory 814, NWS Anchorage, AK

549 
FZAK51 PAFC 132232
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141130-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 35 nm east of the Barren Islands Wed afternoon moves
to 40 nm northwest of Middleton Island at 990 mb Thu afternoon 
and then into Prince William Sound and dissipates Fri morning. A 
998 mb low from the Bering moves to 165 nm south of Sitkinak at 
994 mb Fri morning and reaches 320 nm southeast of Sitkinak at 996
mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141130-
Resurrection Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141130-
Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141130-
Port Valdez-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141130-
Valdez Narrows-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141130-
Valdez Arm-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141130-
Passage Canal-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 15 kt.Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier.  Seas 2 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141130-
Barren Islands East-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141130-
Chiniak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141130-
Marmot Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141130-
Shelikof Strait-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt, becoming Variable 10 kt N of 
Anchor Point in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141130-
Kachemak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A very broad low pressure aloft stretches from the northwestern
Bering Sea eastward through the Alaska/Canada border. There are
two main centers of circulation associated within the broader
trough, one departing into Canada, another over the north-central
Bering Sea. The jet stream is very zonal (west/east) with a 150 kt
core south of the Aleutians. Several shortwave troughs are
embedded on the north side of the jet stream in the Bering Sea,
propagating toward the mainland. Those disturbances will be the
focus for active weather going forward the next few days.

From a sensible weather perspective, the departing system lingers
snow over the eastern Copper River Basin, while clearing builds in
behind it over northern Cook Inlet region, allowing for plentiful
sunshine and temperatures reaching into the 40s in some areas.
The southwest mainland is more under the influence of the incoming
low pressure with low clouds hanging around as well as rain near
the immediate coastline. The Bering Sea is in a broad northerly
flow as colder air streams in from the Arctic.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The large scale is well agreed upon in the short term with the
Bering Sea disturbances deamplifying when they move east into the
Gulf of Alaska. However, as the second disturbance moves into the
Gulf on Thursday, there are some difference in areal extent and
amount of precipitation (snow inland/rain coastal), but there is
decent agreement on there being some rain along the coast, with
some snow bleeding across the Chugach into the Cook Inlet region.
Otherwise there remains good agreement into the weekend as another
large Bering Sea low pressure moves into the Gulf. Details are
still yet to be resolved but the large scale looks more concrete.
In general the storm track looks to stay away from the mainland in
the short term, save for the weaker disturbances within the
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a 986 mb surface low near Cordova and a 986 mb low near
Kodiak. These lows will push eastward. The models suggest that
cyclonic flow will persist into Friday for the Gulf Of Alaska and
Prince William Sound. There is a zonal jet south of the Alaska
Peninsula and the southern Gulf with a magnitude of 150 knots.
This jet will barrel into Southeast Alaska. As expected the models
continue the trend of the temperatures subtle cooling. By
Thursday morning, the GFS and ECMWF global models bring a strong
shortwave up Cook Inlet and the potential for snow or a rain/snow
mix will be possible. The NAM model is drier over the Anchorage
Bowl than the previous 2 models. The situation is being monitored
and updates will be made as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: tonight
through Thursday)...

Overall relatively benign weather pattern for the Southwest
Mainland over the next couple of days. A weakening surface low
moves over the AKPen today and fizzles into the broader longwave
trough pattern encompassing much of Southern Alaska. A low stratus
deck will park itself over Southwest through at least tonight.
Some areas may see even lower cloud ceilings with areas of fog
through the overnight hours tonight. There is not much expected in
the way of precipitation aside for along the mountain ranges,
which may see periods of light snowfall along the higher
elevations. Precipitation likely won't linger beyond early
Thursday morning once the trough axis moves off to the east,
however, anticipate cloud cover to persist through the end of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
tonight through Thursday)...

A more amplified pattern makes its way into the western Bering
with the approach of a developing Kamchatka low by late Wednesday
night. The system pushes southeastward across the Bering towards
the Southern AKPen over the next few days. Moderate cold air
advection on the back side of the low will aid in strengthening
the winds to possibly storm force on Thursday morning. Once the
low crosses over the Aleutian Islands, northerly winds through the
bays and passes will increase significantly, with storm force
gusts in some areas by Thursday afternoon. Most of the
precipitation will be confined to the Eastern Aleutians, Southern
AKPen and the Pribilofs, as well as along the eastern Bering.
Rain showers will be the most likely result, but light snow is
possible along the higher elevations as well. Heaviest
precipitation will be  Another front approaches the Western
Aleutians by Friday, bringing another round of strong winds and
heavy precipitation along its front.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low tracking into the Gulf from the Bering on
Friday will have the potential to produce southerly and easterly
gales along a front ahead of the system through Saturday evening.
Friday night into Saturday morning in the lee of the low there is
also the potential for localized areas of gusty northwesterly
gale force winds to develop out of gaps and passes in the western
Gulf. Seas are likely to remain below 20 ft.

Bering Sea: A low exiting the Bering will produce widespread gales
with localized potential for storm-force winds near the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen before diminishing through Friday morning.
Seas will approach 20 ft in the southern Bering and eastern
Aleutians, subsiding Friday. A large, well-developed low
approaches the western Aleutians on Friday. Its front sweeps
eastward through the Bering and Aleutians producing widespread
southeasterly gales with localized storm-force winds. On Saturday,
the low enters the western Bering with the potential for a swath
of storm-force winds across the western Aleutians through Sunday
morning. Seas building to 20 to 30 ft may occur in the vicinity
of the western Aleutians Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Models continue to stay in reasonably close agreement for much of
the extended range, but increasing uncertainty still emerges by
early next week. A Bering low and front will be producing active
weather out west for the beginning of the period on Saturday.
Moderate rainfall and gusty small craft to gale level southeast
winds along the front likely will be ongoing over the Pribilofs
and Eastern Aleutians on Saturday morning, advancing east with the
front during the day into the AKPen and near portions of the
Southwest coastline. Farther west and to the south of the Bering
low, stronger winds at or near storm force and more showery
rainfall should spread across the Western Aleutians, similarly
advancing towards the Eastern Aleutians with time on Saturday as
the low moves near or just south of the Pribilofs late in the day.

By Sunday, the Bering low will cross into or reform over the
western Gulf, becoming a large, deep and increasingly stacked
system as it moves slowly into the southern or central Gulf
through Monday morning. Some model differences become more
apparent by this stage, with some spread in the track of the
center as it transitions from the eastern Bering into the Gulf.
Some of the global operational solutions, such as the
Canadian/ECMWF, attempt to bring the low across the northern AKPen
and Kodiak Island and spread inland precipitation across parts of
the southern mainland between Sunday and Monday. However, this
track lies significantly north of the global ensemble consensus,
with some members even keeping the low south of the Gulf and out
over open North Pacific waters by Sunday evening. This would favor
more limited impacts over the southern interior keeping most
areas drier, with higher winds and rain generally limited to
coastal areas or offshore through Monday. A sharp ridge axis will
also move into the Bering on Sunday, helping to support strong
northerly flow and cold air advection on the backside of the low
moving over the Gulf. This could result in a period of fierce gap
winds gusting as high as storm force along and south of the
southern AKPen and Eastern Aleutians between late Sunday and early
Monday.

For the remainder of the forecast period between late Monday and
Tuesday, another low will likely enter the northern Bering from
Siberia/Kamchatka while the stacked Gulf low pivots north and
slowly weakens. This should flatten out the ridge sandwiched in
between the two synoptic systems, allowing the upper level lows
respectively associated with the two systems to merge on Tuesday
to form an open, negatively-tilted longwave stretching between the
western Gulf and northern Bering. Depending on how the orientation
of the combined system sets up, this could initiate a weak
southerly flow and trend towards warming temperatures over
Southcentral along with increasing rain/snow chances through
Tuesday evening.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 150 155 165 170 172-178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/AS