Small Craft Advisory 793, NWS Anchorage, AK

528 
FZAK51 PAFC 070036
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071330-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low develops Wed evening 45 nm south of Seward and 
tracks along the North Gulf Coast Thu, dissipating Fri. A 986 mb 
low forms over Kodiak Island Fri morning and moves 30 nm south of 
Seward at 980 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front extends into the 
eastern Gulf for Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-071330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Lower winds and seas near the coast. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Lower winds and seas near the coast. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071330-
Resurrection Bay-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071330-
Prince William Sound-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071330-
Port Valdez-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071330-
Valdez Narrows-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071330-
Valdez Arm-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071330-
Passage Canal-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071330-
Barren Islands East-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071330-
Chiniak Bay-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft 
building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071330-
Marmot Bay-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071330-
Shelikof Strait-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071330-
Kachemak Bay-
436 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft 
building to 8 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern aloft looks to be transitioning to a more
progressive-type flow. The two driving features in this transition
are a stout upper-level high pressure over the central Pacific,
and a broad low pressure aloft that stretches from the Beaufort
Sea through the western Bering Sea. Between these two large scale
features lies a division between two differing air masses and
hence, the jet stream. The warm north Pacific air mass features
+10C at 850mb(5000ft) contrasting with a Bering Sea -2C at 850mb.
The warm front associated with the Bering Sea low pressure extends
across the mainland and into the Gulf of Alaska. That front aloft
is where today's rain across the region, which is much lighter in
the Cook Inlet region, heavier across the southwest mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in pretty great agreement with not only the first
front/low pressure moving onshore today, but the second as well,
which is tracking from west to east across the Bering Sea on
Thursday. Any discrepancy with the second system would be exact
track and strength of the low, but we're looking at a strong
system tracking from the Pribilofs to the mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The Turnagain
Arm wind will develop this evening, but should not get overly
strong. The terminal should remain on the edge of the gusts and
could remain a light southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Friday afternoon)...

Low pressure in the Bering will bring active weather as several
fronts track through Southcentral. The first front has brought
light rain to some areas, but PoPs will continue to decline
through tonight as the front weakens. A second, stronger front
tracks into Southcentral Wednesday morning, bringing stronger
winds and greater PoPs. A tightening pressure gradient with the
approaching front will drive gusty Turnagain and Knik winds. Winds
will increase early Wednesday morning, peaking in the afternoon
with gusts up to 50 mph.

The advection of moist air with Wednesday's front will contribute
to widespread precipitation through Wednesday, with rain expected
near the coast and snow over higher terrain. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for Broad Pass in the northern Susitna
Valley from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday
morning. Snowfall rates are expected to be highest with initial
frontal passage before decreasing through the afternoon. As
temperatures cool into the evening, snowfall amounts are expected
to increase again before subsiding into Thursday morning.
Temperatures do increase slightly above freezing on Wednesday,
bringing in the potential for a wintry mix closer to Talkeetna.

A short break in precipitation is in store for Thursday as a ridge
moves in behind the front, though skies will remain cloudy. Another
front approaches Friday morning, heralding a wet end to the work
week in Southcentral.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today through
Wednesday night)...

A windy, warm and wet pattern is generally on course to continue
over the span of the next several days as a series of lows and
upper level impulses move progressively across the Bering and
Southwest within well-established westerly flow aloft. The next
round of wind and rain will move onshore overnight tonight, with
precipitation by and large falling as rain away from higher
terrain with the prior cold air mass in place now washed out by
persistent warm advection. A more amplified system will arrive
later on Wednesday as a deep surface trough moves onshore near the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast. This will bring another round of moderate
rainfall northeast across the breadth of the Southwest, with
strong winds out of the southwest gusting up to 45 mph for coastal
areas along Bristol and Kuskokwim Bays through Wednesday
afternoon.

A short break in the more adverse conditions is expected on
Thursday as a shortwave ridge moves into place from the eastern
Bering and the aforementioned trough lifts out into the central
and eastern interior. Cloud cover and widely scattered showers may
persist in some areas, especially where aided by westerly flow
upsloping into the Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Mountains. The
break will come to a swift end by Thursday afternoon as a powerful
low moves from the eastern Bering towards Bristol Bay by Thursday
night, sending another surge of moisture and rainfall inland
through Friday morning. Coastal flooding/erosion is not currently
anticipated to be a significant threat with this system due to the
track of the low, but residents along the Southwest coast are
still advised to monitor for additional forecast updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A very active pattern is set to continue across the Aleutians and
Bering with multiple storm force lows set to impact the region
over the course of the next few days. The first system consisting
of a compact low currently over the western Bering will move
northwest with a small area of storm force winds tonight,
approaching the Pribilofs early on Wednesday morning. Strong
westerly winds and rain will cross over the Pribilofs early on
Wednesday morning, with gusts vaulting briefly up to 60 mph
possible before the center moves off to the east. The low will
move into the western mainland by Wednesday afternoon as a
shortwave ridge crosses into the eastern Bering, providing a very
short-lived break in the weather before the next impactful system
arrives.

On Wednesday evening, a powerful North Pacific low will lift
across the Aleutian Chain into the western Bering. Heavy rain and
gale to storm force winds will accompany the low, spreading east
from the Western Aleutians to the Central/Eastern Aleutians during
the day on Thursday. Very strong winds have the potential to mix
down to sea level immediately behind the low's occluded front as
it arcs over the Aleutians, particularly near and around Unalaska.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for late Thursday afternoon and
evening due to the threat for peak wind gusts up to 75 mph
through Unalaska and Dutch Harbor. As the low continues east
towards Bristol Bay, strong and gusty winds will spread east
along the southern AKPEN and Eastern Aleutians on Friday, with
gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible roughly between Cold Bay and Port
Heiden.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

A well-developed Eastern Bering low Friday morning spreads
predominantly westerly high-end gales, with areas of storm force
winds, especially through gaps and channeled areas over the
Aleutians and into the southern Alaska Peninsula, diminishing by
Sunday morning. Seas to 22 feet across the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula Friday, subsiding Saturday. The low continues to the
North Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. Northwesterly high-end
gale force gap winds through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak
areas, Saturday diminishing Sunday. Seas to 20 feet south of
Kodiak Island, subsiding Sunday.

A developing low Saturday morning approaches the western
Aleutians, spreading high-end gale force gap winds into the
central Aleutians through Sunday, diminishing late. Seas building
to 18 feet over the western Aleutians Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Model guidance continues to show the progression of a Bering low
making its way across the AKPen towards the Gulf of Alaska by
Saturday, while a separate North Pacific low pushes into the
Western Bering by late Sunday. Consensus has overall been holding
up relatively well with the first system and better than average
with the second system. Additionally, solutions are hinting at a
third system approaching the western Bering by Tuesday. By
Saturday, there will likely be areas of enhanced precipitation
along the AKPen as well as the North Gulf Coast as the front
approaches, as well as increased winds through gaps and passes.
There will need to be some fine-tuning in the coming days to
determine how strong the winds get as well as how much and how far
the moisture will make it into Southcentral. As of right now, it
looks like the highest rain/snow totals will be along the
Southcentral coastal regions and along the Panhandle. The next
system may bring heavy amounts of precipitation to the Eastern
Aleutians and Southern AKPen by late Monday into Tuesday.
Determining the type of falling precip (rain, snow, or a rain/snow
mix) will depend on how low the snow levels drop as well as the
intensity of falling precip.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 185.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 145.
MARINE...Storms 177 413.
		 Gales 119 160 165 170 173 175 176 178 179 180 181 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP/KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/AF/KM