Small Craft Advisory 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 3, 2021, 3:14 PM AKDT (23:14 UTC)

Expired

Oct 4, 2021, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

777 
FZAK51 PAFC 032314
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041200-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A broad trough remains over the Gulf through Mon. A front moves
into the western Gulf early Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-041200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041200-
Resurrection Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041200-
Prince William Sound-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041200-
Port Valdez-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041200-
Valdez Narrows-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041200-
Valdez Arm-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041200-
Passage Canal-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up
to 25 kt near Whittier this evening. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041200-
Barren Islands East-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041200-
Chiniak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041200-
Marmot Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041200-
Shelikof Strait-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041200-
Kachemak Bay-
314 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. W of
Homer, variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 3, 5:47 AM AKDT, 9 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The morning is starting out mostly cloudy with some patchy fog in
some areas, including around Anchorage. For most areas of the
mainland, precipitation has largely ended. High pressure building
in will make for a dry day across all of the southern mainland.
This morning's 12Z Anchorage sounding shows the winds have
slackened off quite a bit through the lowest levels of the
atmosphere, though the atmosphere still has a fair bit of moisture
that it will need to purge so the sun can come out later on today.
An area of stratus has enveloped much of the Kuskokwim Delta,
with a mix of sky and clouds for areas further east. Meanwhile the
last of the latest bout of winter is keeping things mainly cloudy
over much of Southcentral.

Resuspended ash continues across Kodiak Island from Katmai-
Novarupta, with Kodiak City reporting ash for 18 consecutive hours
as of this writing. Across the Bering, a weakening front is over
the central Bering, with a strong low and its associated front
approaching the Western Aleutians, leading to increasing winds
there.

In the upper levels, an upper level positively tilted long wave
trough persists over Southcentral, with a strong northwesterly 130
kt jet streak now oriented along and parallel to the Bering coast
of Southwest Alaska. A large ridge is covering much of the rest of
the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement on the large scale
through Monday night. Forecast challenges include how far inland
warmer air associated with the next series of disturbances moving
across Southwest will make it. This will be critical in
determining precipitation type Monday night across interior areas
of Southwest Alaska. The fog forecast will also be tricky as it's
been quite patchy, though where it has formed is also dense.
Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Patchy fog has
developed over Anchorage, any may at times move over the terminal
until it burns off later this morning. Otherwise expect a quiet
period of weather until late Monday night/Tuesday morning, when
the next round of precipitation threatens the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
and Monday)...

An area of low pressure near Middleton Island that was
responsible for the rain/snow event yesterday is now weakening and
moving southward over the Gulf. As it does so, decreasing
moisture and precipitation is allowing the shower activity to come
to an end across the low lying areas and the surrounding
elevations. Meanwhile, upper level support coupled with cold air
advection will help maintain northwesterly gale force winds
funneling through the bays and passes near Kamishak Bay to the
Barren Islands through tonight. Winds will then subside to small
crafts by Monday as the low further weakens and the pressure
gradient relaxes.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier conditions can be
expected for the rest of today through midday Monday as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the mainland. Daytime temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.
Thereafter, a pattern shift will get underway as a long duration
wet event sets up for early to the middle part of next week.
Moist, southwesterly flow aloft will develop with a frontal
boundary crossing the Alaska Range and bring increasing cloudiness
and precipitation for late Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
The latest model runs are having timing differences with the
frontal passage and how soon the cold airmass will erode. For
now, the precipitation will likely be all rain in the coastal
areas and snow/rain mix before changing to all rain in the
interior valleys. Stay tuned as we refine the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Monday night)...

High pressure ridging over the Bering pushes into interior Alaska
with the arrival of Kamchatka low into the Bering on Sunday. Its
associated warm front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta Sunday evening
with warming temperatures and a transition from snow to rain
through Monday morning for coastal areas. High rain chances
develop as a cold front over the Aleutians spread eastward,
reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Monday night. A new frontal
system overspreads the Aleutians Monday night with renewed rain
chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Monday night)...

High pressure moves into interior Alaska on Sunday as a Kamchatka
low pushes into the western Bering with increasing southwest
winds. The resulting pressure gradient between the two features
maintain gap winds for the AKPEN through this evening. A trailing
cold front also associated with the Kamchatka low to track
through the Aleutians with rain chances shifting from west to east
through Monday. A second front then brings renewed rain chances
into the Western Aleutians by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tue through Thu)

Gulf of Alaska: Conditions are expected to stay below small craft
through Wednesday morning. A frontal system moves into the
southern Gulf by Wed afternoon. Winds and waves will gradually
increase to high end small craft, possibly low end gale force,
through Thursday evening as the front pushes the North Gulf Coast.

Bering Sea: Gale force storm system moves into the Bering Strait
through Tuesday afternoon. Its front weakens to small craft by
late Tuesday night as it pushes the Southwest Coast. A new gale
force North Pacific low moves into the Southern Bering by Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wed through Sat)

Longwave pattern extends across the Bering and into the Gulf through
the end of the week. Broad areas of precipitation are likely
across the Bering, as well as areas of gale force winds. The
associated front off the low near eastern Russia weakens as it
travels towards the Southwest coast. The base of the trough pushes
the North Gulf Coast, likely bringing round of active weather to
the region. Solutions hint at a warmer associated airmass, with
will likely lead to mostly rain for the coastal areas. A new
system develops in the North Pacific later in the week and makes
its way towards the Southern Bering, with its trough extending
into the Gulf by late Friday night. Current consensus shows the
system traveling north towards Bristol Bay with a triple point low
developing near Kodiak Island on Saturday. This pattern will
result in strong winds and areas of heavy precipitation across the
southern Bering, Aleutian Islands/Southern AKPen, Kodiak Island,
and the Gulf of Alaska as we enter the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130-132, 150, 178, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.