Gale Warning 643, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 3, 2021, 3:27 PM AKDT (23:27 UTC)

Expired

Oct 4, 2021, 4:15 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

552 
FZAK52 PAFC 032327
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041215-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front moves across the Bering and reaches Southwest Alaska 
Mon afternoon. Its associated low moves to 150nm NW of 
St. Matthew Island at 978mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041215-
Bristol Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041215-
Unalaska Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041215-
Adak to Kiska-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041215-
Kiska to Attu-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 3, 5:47 AM AKDT, 9 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The morning is starting out mostly cloudy with some patchy fog in
some areas, including around Anchorage. For most areas of the
mainland, precipitation has largely ended. High pressure building
in will make for a dry day across all of the southern mainland.
This morning's 12Z Anchorage sounding shows the winds have
slackened off quite a bit through the lowest levels of the
atmosphere, though the atmosphere still has a fair bit of moisture
that it will need to purge so the sun can come out later on today.
An area of stratus has enveloped much of the Kuskokwim Delta,
with a mix of sky and clouds for areas further east. Meanwhile the
last of the latest bout of winter is keeping things mainly cloudy
over much of Southcentral.

Resuspended ash continues across Kodiak Island from Katmai-
Novarupta, with Kodiak City reporting ash for 18 consecutive hours
as of this writing. Across the Bering, a weakening front is over
the central Bering, with a strong low and its associated front
approaching the Western Aleutians, leading to increasing winds
there.

In the upper levels, an upper level positively tilted long wave
trough persists over Southcentral, with a strong northwesterly 130
kt jet streak now oriented along and parallel to the Bering coast
of Southwest Alaska. A large ridge is covering much of the rest of
the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in very good agreement on the large scale
through Monday night. Forecast challenges include how far inland
warmer air associated with the next series of disturbances moving
across Southwest will make it. This will be critical in
determining precipitation type Monday night across interior areas
of Southwest Alaska. The fog forecast will also be tricky as it's
been quite patchy, though where it has formed is also dense.
Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Patchy fog has
developed over Anchorage, any may at times move over the terminal
until it burns off later this morning. Otherwise expect a quiet
period of weather until late Monday night/Tuesday morning, when
the next round of precipitation threatens the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
and Monday)...

An area of low pressure near Middleton Island that was
responsible for the rain/snow event yesterday is now weakening and
moving southward over the Gulf. As it does so, decreasing
moisture and precipitation is allowing the shower activity to come
to an end across the low lying areas and the surrounding
elevations. Meanwhile, upper level support coupled with cold air
advection will help maintain northwesterly gale force winds
funneling through the bays and passes near Kamishak Bay to the
Barren Islands through tonight. Winds will then subside to small
crafts by Monday as the low further weakens and the pressure
gradient relaxes.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier conditions can be
expected for the rest of today through midday Monday as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the mainland. Daytime temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.
Thereafter, a pattern shift will get underway as a long duration
wet event sets up for early to the middle part of next week.
Moist, southwesterly flow aloft will develop with a frontal
boundary crossing the Alaska Range and bring increasing cloudiness
and precipitation for late Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
The latest model runs are having timing differences with the
frontal passage and how soon the cold airmass will erode. For
now, the precipitation will likely be all rain in the coastal
areas and snow/rain mix before changing to all rain in the
interior valleys. Stay tuned as we refine the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Monday night)...

High pressure ridging over the Bering pushes into interior Alaska
with the arrival of Kamchatka low into the Bering on Sunday. Its
associated warm front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta Sunday evening
with warming temperatures and a transition from snow to rain
through Monday morning for coastal areas. High rain chances
develop as a cold front over the Aleutians spread eastward,
reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Monday night. A new frontal
system overspreads the Aleutians Monday night with renewed rain
chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Monday night)...

High pressure moves into interior Alaska on Sunday as a Kamchatka
low pushes into the western Bering with increasing southwest
winds. The resulting pressure gradient between the two features
maintain gap winds for the AKPEN through this evening. A trailing
cold front also associated with the Kamchatka low to track
through the Aleutians with rain chances shifting from west to east
through Monday. A second front then brings renewed rain chances
into the Western Aleutians by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tue through Thu)

Gulf of Alaska: Conditions are expected to stay below small craft
through Wednesday morning. A frontal system moves into the
southern Gulf by Wed afternoon. Winds and waves will gradually
increase to high end small craft, possibly low end gale force,
through Thursday evening as the front pushes the North Gulf Coast.

Bering Sea: Gale force storm system moves into the Bering Strait
through Tuesday afternoon. Its front weakens to small craft by
late Tuesday night as it pushes the Southwest Coast. A new gale
force North Pacific low moves into the Southern Bering by Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wed through Sat)

Longwave pattern extends across the Bering and into the Gulf through
the end of the week. Broad areas of precipitation are likely
across the Bering, as well as areas of gale force winds. The
associated front off the low near eastern Russia weakens as it
travels towards the Southwest coast. The base of the trough pushes
the North Gulf Coast, likely bringing round of active weather to
the region. Solutions hint at a warmer associated airmass, with
will likely lead to mostly rain for the coastal areas. A new
system develops in the North Pacific later in the week and makes
its way towards the Southern Bering, with its trough extending
into the Gulf by late Friday night. Current consensus shows the
system traveling north towards Bristol Bay with a triple point low
developing near Kodiak Island on Saturday. This pattern will
result in strong winds and areas of heavy precipitation across the
southern Bering, Aleutian Islands/Southern AKPen, Kodiak Island,
and the Gulf of Alaska as we enter the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130-132, 150, 178, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2021Every gale warning in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.