Small Craft Advisory 780, NWS Anchorage, AK

741 
FZAK52 PAFC 031213
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040045-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front near the Western Aleutians moves to the central Bering
late Sun night, then moves into Southwest Alaska Mon afternoon.
The parent low moves from near Kamchatka to 275 nm west of Saint
Matthew Island at 974 mb late Mon night. 

$$

PKZ150-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
Bristol Bay-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
Unalaska Bay-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
Adak to Kiska-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
Kiska to Attu-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
413 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

552 
FZAK52 PAFC 032327
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041215-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front moves across the Bering and reaches Southwest Alaska 
Mon afternoon. Its associated low moves to 150nm NW of 
St. Matthew Island at 978mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041215-
Bristol Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041215-
Unalaska Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041215-
Adak to Kiska-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041215-
Kiska to Attu-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong surface low moving into the northern Panhandle is
spreading moisture westward in response to an upper level low
centered over the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Snow is overspreading
much of the southern Copper River Basin, with the upslope
component making for heavier snow along the Glenn Highway west of
Glennallen, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. The
radar this morning is all bark and no bite, with plentiful virga
showing up over Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Due to gusty northerly
winds transporting dry air southward out of the Susitna Valley,
all of the would-be rain or snow should continue mostly
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the ground. Any heavier
shower activity may allow for a brief period of rain or snow to
reach the ground. Across Southwest Alaska, most areas are quiet
under mostly cloudy skies, though portions of coastal Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta are mainly clear.

Along the immediate coast, ocean-effect rain and snow showers have
been ongoing through much of yesterday into today. Due to
temperatures at or slightly above freezing, accumulations, if any,
will be minimal. This ocean-effect activity continues southward to
the AKPEN, where rain shower activity has been reported at
stations across the region for a similar time period. Over the
western Bering, a large area of high pressure is centered over
Adak this morning, with some rain moving across the northern
Bering to the south and east of a fairly weak low along the coast
of the Kamchatka Peninsula.

A plume of resuspended ash from the Katmai-Novarupta volcano is
evident on satellite imagery stretching across the Shelikof Strait
towards Larsen Bay this morning. Occasional puffs of ash have been
spotted on satellite imagery from Semisopochnoi volcano in the
Western Aleutians as well overnight.

In the upper levels, a large longwave trough sits right over
mainland Alaska, with multiple centers, though the main one is
over the eastern Kenai Peninsula. A 100 kt northwesterly jet
streak to the west of the longwave trough overspreads much of the
Bering. A few impulses of energy are rotating around the low
center, contributing to the snowfall ongoing across the Copper
River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in very good agreement through late Sunday night.
Thus, the forecast challenges the next couple days include
snowfall amounts on the higher elevations of Anchorage and the
Copper River Basin, whether any of that activity gets into the
Anchorage Bowl, and how quickly the gap winds die off Sunday and
Sunday night. Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Snowfall associated with
moisture from a low moving into eastern Alaska is largely
sublimating as virga before it reaches the ground, but flurries or
sprinkles by late in the day can't be entirely ruled out.
Otherwise, breezy northerly winds will persist through the entire TAF
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday night)...

Upper level waves rotating on the north side of a low over the
northern Gulf will continue to bring accumulating snow along the
Copper River Basin through today (please see the Winter Weather
Advisory on our webpage for more details). Elsewhere, increasing
chances of snow are expected for the Anchorage Hillside, with
flurries followed by sprinkles for the Mat Valley and west
Anchorage. Coastal areas of eastern Prince William Sound will
start out as rain/snow showers and then rain showers in the
afternoon. Meanwhile, upper level support coupled with cold air
advection will help maintain northwesterly storm force winds
funneling through the bays and passes near Kamishak Bay to the
Barren Islands. Northwesterly gale force winds will continue
across the western and southern Gulf through tonight before
subsiding to small crafts by Sunday evening as low moves southward
and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Thereafter, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier
conditions can be expected for the rest of Sunday through midday
Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the mainland. A
frontal boundary associated with a deep low over the eastern
Bering will cross the Alaska Range and bring increasing cloudiness
as well as precipitation for late Monday night and into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday Night)...

Morning temperatures across Southwest hover near or below
freezing while a potent low over the Alaska Panhandle draws a
polar airmass across the state. Precipitation across much of
Southwest gradually comes to an end, but any lingering
precipitation falls as light snow. A tightened pressure gradient
currently over the Bering overspreads the Kuskokwim Delta
throughout the day on Saturday with elevated northerly winds
possible into Saturday night. High pressure promotes another day
of clearing on Sunday before the next upper low and front approach
the Southwest coast. Warmer temperatures into the 40's trend
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday Night)...

Cold upper-level temperatures associated with a deep low across
the Alaska Panhandle result in instability and snow showers over
the Bering from Nunivak Island to the Alaska Peninsula. A
tightened pressure gradient in between low pressure to the east
and an approaching ridge to the west are causing gale force
northwesterly winds. A Kamchatka low amplifies a high pressure
ridge over the Bering on Sunday with its front moving over the
Western Aleutians early on Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: High confidence on quiet conditions across the
Gulf for Monday and Tuesday with winds and waves below small
craft levels. Beyond Tuesday, a frontal system is expected to move
into the Gulf, however, the strength of this front remains highly
uncertain. One thing that we do know is expect an increase in
winds compared to Monday and Tuesday but still remaining below
small crafts for the time being. There remains uncertainty as to
if small craft winds will be reached.

Bering Sea: A gale force storm system is expected to move
northeastward toward East Russia from the North Pacific but with
the center remaining west of the Bering Sea. This storm system is
also the remnants of what was once Typhoon Mindulle. Monday looks
fairly certain that there will be gale force winds and wave
heights of 20 to 28 feet, especially across the western Bering.
Beyond Monday, much uncertainty exists as to if another low coming
off of the Kamchatka Peninsula rapidly deepens as it moves towards
the Western Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday. Other model guidance
doesn't support this one solution keeping this second piece of
energy rather weak, therefore, confidence is low for this
timeframe. Stay tuned for the latest information as the forecast
is likely to change Tuesday and Wednesday time frame.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The longwave pattern is expected to shift in the long term with
troughing developing over the Bering and ridging over the southern
Mainland. This in effect will shift the storm track into the
Bering, but active weather will still likely impact both domains
next week. The building ridge is a result of recurving Typhoon
Mindulle. This system will pull ample warm air and moisture on its
eastern flank northward, helping to build heights over the
southern Mainland. In this pattern, a southwest to northeast jet
will allow storms to track from the western Aleutians into
Southwest Alaska and eventually the interior. The exact track of
the typhoon remains uncertain, but most determinist guidance
brings the storm into the western Bering with a wide sweeping warm
front that then moves into the Gulf. Triple point low development
along the front is likely in this scenario so the system is likely
to impact Southwest on Tuesday and reach Southcentral Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Due to the tropical origins of this storm
and broad southerly flow, mostly rain is expected along with
warmer temperatures as compared to what has been observed
recently. Behind this low a shortwave ridge is expected to develop
on Thursday before the next system moves into the western Bering
early Thursday morning and into Southwest on Friday. The exact low
track, especially once a triple point forms in the Gulf, will
determine the impacts from both systems, but rain appears to be
the likely precipitation type for lower elevations with the
mountains likely receiving snow.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning. 130 131 138.
Gale Warning 120 132 137 150 155 160 177 178 351 352 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV/CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1042 AM AKDT SAT OCT 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.54W
10/02/2021  E1.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH AND STILL SNOWING. STICKING TO THE
            ROADS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1135 AM AKDT SAT OCT 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     SNOW             11 SE KNIK              61.32N 149.54W
10/02/2021  E2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 11 SE
            KNIK. 2 INCH AND STILL SNOWING. STICKING TO
            THE ROADS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1227 PM AKDT SAT OCT 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.54W
10/02/2021  E2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 11 SE
            KNIK. CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 11
            SE KNIK. 2 INCH AND STILL SNOWING. STICKING
            TO THE ROADS.

&&