Small Craft Advisory 776, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
FZAK51 PAFC 021133
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030015-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf persists through
late Sun night. High pressure builds into the southwestern Gulf
Sun night.

$$

PKZ119-030015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030015-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030015-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030015-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030015-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030015-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030015-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt near Whittier decreasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030015-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt, except 55 kt near the Barren Islands. Seas 
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030015-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030015-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030015-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030015-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft in the inner bay. Seas 6 ft in the
outer bay.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
543 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The longwave upper-level trough remains in place over mainland
Alaska. A 509 dm upper-level low sits in the base of this trough
and is supporting a 978 mb surface low east of Kodiak City. A
front attached to this low is lifting north to the Southcentral
coast this morning with rain and higher elevation snow from the
eastern Kenai Peninsula across Prince William Sound to Cordova.
A 180 kt jet streak extending from south of the Chain east the
the eastern Gulf is also supporting this feature as it sits in
the left exit region of the jet.

A second upper-level shortwave continues to dig south of the
eastern Aleutians this morning. This feature is supported by a
southward moving polar jet that is beginning to phase with the
subtropical jet over the north Pacific. Northerly winds continue
to gust along the eastern half of the Chain as colder air is
advecting southward in the wake of this feature. Saint Paul, King
Salmon, and Dutch Harbor all reported their first snowflakes of
the season as this system moved through. Farther west, a stout
ridge of high pressure is building over the western Bering. Strong
northerly winds and showers persist between this ridge and the
trough downstream due to the tight pressure gradient and parade of
weaker shortwaves dropping south across the Bering, embedded in
the northerly flow aloft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions all remain in good synoptic agreement through the
weekend, all depicting the upper-level low over the northwestern
Gulf lifting to the Kenai Peninsula, opening into a trough while
weakening, then eventually dropping south by Sunday as a cooler,
drier pattern with high pressure to the west sets up. Given that,
there are certainly differences with regard to placement of the
various waves of upper-level energy rotating from west to east
around this feature. The first wave does lift northwest from
Prince William Sound Friday morning. This may help bring a round
of precipitation across the Anchorage Bowl for Friday. Models are
struggling as to whether or not any light mixed precipitation
does fall over this area Friday. However, the ingredients are in
place for the potential for some light precipitation, especially
across the Hillside away from the drier northerly flow.

A similar issue develops again late Friday as another wave pivots
from the Copper River Basin to Cook Inlet. Again, models show a
lack of precipitation, but the ingredients are there for another
round of light rain/snow. The same occurs Saturday morning with a
developing northwesterly flow and cold air advection. This may be
the best shot for some light snow along the Hillside of Anchorage.
But, again, models are struggling to show any accumulating
precipitation. Given the overall synoptic pattern with a trough
remaining in place, waves moving in from the east along with
moisture advection, and eventually a colder northwesterly flow,
the potential is there for at least periods of light rain/snow for
the Anchorage area Friday and Saturday.

Elsewhere, guidance is in much better agreement that these
features will bring accumulating snow to the Copper River Basin
for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds will begin to
diminish this morning, but are expected ramp up again later this
afternoon. A brief rain/snow shower is also possible later this
morning. However, given the dry air at the surface due to the
northerly flow there is low confidence is this solution. Thus,
only VCSH is in the TAF with ceilings staying above 5,000 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Saturday)...

The streak of sunny days that has lasted since this past Sunday
across much of Southcentral has ended. A low centered over the
Gulf south of Seward produced isolated thunderstorms along the
coast yesterday evening. Rain associated with the storm has been
reported in Seward, Portage, Cordova, Valdez, Kenai, and Homer.
Presumably, snow is occurring in the higher elevations of
Turnagain and Thompson Passes, where up to 6 inches of snow are
expected, falling lightly, through tonight. Snow is also expected
along the Glenn Highway near Eureka and Lake Louise where snow was
reported much of the night.

As a much stronger low moves into the eastern Gulf this afternoon,
it will quickly sap the energy from the stalled out low south of
Seward. This will end the precipitation threat over Anchorage and
the Kenai Peninsula temporarily this evening. In the upper levels,
while the surface low south of Seward quickly weakens, the
vertically-stacked upper low over it will remain in place,
stalled near Seward and Chenega. This low will keep the atmosphere
unstable, such that by late tonight, additional moisture from the
low over the eastern Gulf will lead to widespread light snow or a
rain/snow mix over the Copper River Basin from late tonight
through Saturday night. Gusty northerly winds trying to advect in
a colder air mass will try to upslope that moisture along the
mountains, perhaps causing a light minor snowfall along the
Hillside and higher elevations tonight through Saturday. Those
same gusty winds will likely keep drier air moving into the lower
elevations, preventing much, if any, precipitation.

The very cold air mass moving through the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges starting this afternoon still looks to begin a long-
duration resuspended ash event from Katmai Volcano on the Alaska
Peninsula. The resuspended ash is expected to persist from this
afternoon through Sunday evening over southern Kodiak Island. The
gap wind forecasts have been increased, with gusts through the
gaps up to 60 mph expected across Shelikof Strait and the waters
around southern end of Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A trough of low pressure over Southcentral and a ridge of high
pressure over the Bering Sea will continue to bring cold and dry,
northerly winds across the forecast area through Sunday morning.
Otherwise, expect benign conditions with partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies over the next couple of days. Daytime temperatures
for today will range anywhere in the low to the mid 30s with
overnight lows in the teens to the low 20s over the interior
valleys, and low to mid 30s along the coast. A series of upper
level waves embedded in the cold, northerly flow over the
relatively warm waters will help generate widespread, convective
rain/snow showers offshore. Some of the showers may drift over
the Y-K Delta coast at times through Saturday evening. The shower
activity will taper off by Sunday as the ridge axis builds
overhead with dry, mild conditions. A frontal boundary associated
with a deep low in the western Bering will bring increasing
cloudiness, rain, and winds along the Southwest coast beginning
late Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Gusty, northwesterly winds in the eastern Aleutians, the
Pribilofs, and AKPEN will continue through Sunday morning in
response to a tightening pressure gradient with a trough of low
pressure over the Gulf and a ridge of high pressure over the
Bering Sea. A series of upper level waves embedded in the cold,
northerly flow over the relatively warm waters will help generate
widespread convective rain/snow showers over the next couple of
days. A brief break in the shower activity will commence as the
ridge axis builds over the eastern Bering in response a deepening
trough and well developed low tracking from the Kamchatka
Peninsula beginning on Sunday. This impressive system will
approach the western Bering as extratropical remnant of Typhoon
Mindulle. Additionally, the associated frontal boundary will
bring another round of rain, wind, and high seas across the
Bering and the Aleutians for early next week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low pressure system exits to the east Sunday.
This will cease northwest winds behind the low, causing gale force
winds through gaps and passes in the Western Gulf to subiside.
Weather remains quiet through Tuesday with winds and waves below
small craft levels as high pressure builds into the Gulf. High
confidence in the forecast.

Bering Sea: High pressure and calm weather gives way late Sunday
to a large low pressure system moving into the Western Bering. The
low center will move up the coast of Siberia until it is near
Saint Matthew Island late Tuesday. Expect a broad frontal system
to sweep east across the Bering Monday late Sunday through
Tuesday, with a secondary low behind it entering the Western
Bering late Tuesday. These systems are expected to weaken as they
go, so small craft to gale force winds are anticipated. The
forecast with these lows will likely evolve over the next few
days, so stay tuned. Moderate confidence with these systems.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A progressive pattern is expected through Thursday as the Polar
Jet will extend over the Bering and pushing into the southern
mainland of Alaska. This will allow several lows and fronts to
move west to east bringing winds and precipitation to much of the
forecast area as southwest flow develops producing warmer
temperatures than we have experienced over the past week. However,
there is low forecast confidence with the track of each low from
Tuesday through Thursday of next week due to significant model
spreads with these systems. But moderate confidence in the
overall synoptic pattern.

On Monday a shortwave ridge will move across Southwest and
Southcentral with quiet weather conditions expected. However, the
extratropical remnants of Typhoon Mindulle will introduce a low
and frontal system to the Bering on Monday. High winds, up to
storm- force, and rough seas are expected with this low as it
tracks into the northern Bering and towards eastern Russia through
Tuesday. The front associated with this low will introduce gusty
winds and rain to Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN Monday and
Tuesday. As the shortwave ridge moves east this will southwest
flow and rain to develop for Southcentral Alaska by Tuesday.
Tuesday into Wednesday another strong low with high winds to at
least Gales will move across the Bering with several shortwaves
ahead of this low spreading more rain across the Southern Mainland
of Alaska. However, as mentioned previously lower confidence on
the evolution on this second low. After Wednesday models are all
over the place so very little confidence in forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130, 138.
Gale Warning 131-132, 136-137, 150, 155, 160, 165, 351-352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...BJB/RC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
244 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

AKZ171-032245-
Kodiak Island-
Including the city of Kodiak City
244 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

..RESUSPENDED ASH FROM KATMAI-NOVARUPTA EXPECTED OVER KODIAK
ISLAND FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...

Strong northwesterly winds gusting up to 60 mph are expected to
develop across Shelikof Strait and the waters around southern
Kodiak Island beginning around midday today. These winds are
expected to resuspend ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption,
causing trace amounts of ash accumulation. The villages of Karluk
and Akhiok are most likely to be impacted.

Those with respiratory ailments in these areas are encouraged to
avoid or reduce outdoor activity to avoid inhaling the ash.

The winds will diminish early Sunday evening, which will cause
the ash to settle out of the atmosphere.

AKZ121-032245-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
244 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

SKILAK GLACIER DAMMED LAKE RELEASING

On Friday October 1, Skilak Glacier Dammed Lake began releasing.
The release will cause a slow rise in water levels on Skilak Lake
and the middle Kenai River, cresting around bankfull levels after
Oct 5th.

Residents and river users between Skilak Lake and Sterling should
be prepared for unseasonably high water.

As with any glacial system, there is uncertainty. Check back to
weather.gov/Anchorage for updates on crest stage and timing.