Small Craft Advisory 745, NWS Anchorage, AK

491 
FZAK51 PAFC 220014
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221315-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 85 nm east of Cordova tracks inland and dissipates 
through Wed morning. A 988 mb elongated low south of the Aleutians
Wed afternoon strengthens as it moves to 160 nm south of Seward 
at 977 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front tracks along the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula then reaches the North Gulf Coast by Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 8 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221315-
Resurrection Bay-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up
to 40 kt this evening. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221315-
Prince William Sound-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221315-
Port Valdez-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221315-
Valdez Narrows-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221315-
Valdez Arm-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221315-
Passage Canal-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE wind 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221315-
Barren Islands East-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221315-
Chiniak Bay-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221315-
Marmot Bay-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221315-
Shelikof Strait-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after 
midnight.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221315-
Kachemak Bay-
414 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

279 
FZAK51 PAFC 221211
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230100-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Low pressure lingers across the Gulf through Wed afternoon. A 985
mb elongated low south of the Aleutians Wed afternoon strengthens 
as it moves to 150 nm southeast of Kodiak on Thu morning. It then
moves to 125 nm east of Kodiak at 977 mb by Thu afternoon. Its 
front tracks along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula then reaches
the North Gulf Coast by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-230100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Gusts
to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta before noon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. 
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230100-
Resurrection Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230100-
Prince William Sound-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230100-
Port Valdez-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 		
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230100-
Valdez Narrows-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230100-
Valdez Arm-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230100-
Passage Canal-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230100-
Barren Islands East-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230100-
Chiniak Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230100-
Marmot Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230100-
Shelikof Strait-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230100-
Kachemak Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough digging
south across the state to the Gulf and a ridge building upstream
over the Bering. Within the trough are two distinct surface lows.
One is located in the Gulf just east of Kodiak Island, with its
associated front extending along the Southeast coastline and the
other is in northern Alaska by the Brooks Range with its
associated front extending down through the interior to Kodiak.
The low in northern Alaska has upper air support from a jet streak
measuring 90 kts and is driving cold arctic air down into the
interior up against the Alaska Range this afternoon. With the
combination of cold air advection and frontal passage, winds are
beginning to pick up across Southcentral. Radar is showing returns
by Prince William Sound enhanced by shortwaves spinning off the
main low in the Gulf and a deformation band over the Susitna
Valley as the flow aloft diverges between the two.

A ridge of high pressure is extending from the Aleutians to the
Alaska Peninsula. Satellite shows a blanket of low stratus over
much of the Bering and Aleutians as the ridge progresses east.
Winds over the Aleutians/Bering are slowly beginning to die down
as the ridge builds over the area and the trough pushes into the
Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short-term. As
the low in the Gulf moves east, the GFS has the upper-level ridge
over the Alaska/Yukon border nose into interior Alaska more than
the other solutions until it finally aligns with the others around
12z Thursday. Models are also having trouble keying in on the
location of a surface low south/southwest of Kodiak Island as it
moves from the Gulf towards Prince William Sound by Wednesday 12z.
The GFS is showing a slower solution and is holding the low
slightly west compared to the solutions (NAM/GEM/EC). The models
are also struggling with the location of an upper-level low that
drops south from the Chukchi Sea towards Western Alaska by
Wednesday. The GFS/EC solutions is showing the center location
over the Kuskokwim Delta while the NAM/Canadian have it positioned
further northeast by Norton Sound. Overall, forecast confidence
is good for the short-term and increasing for the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist with a slight chance of a
shower passing over the terminal through late evening. North
winds will increase by late afternoon with gusts increasing by
evening. Winds and gusts may diminish in intensity briefly during
the early morning hours of Tuesday before increasing again by
late Tuesday morning. Northerly wind gusts on Tuesday could reach
35 kt at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Thursday)...

A cold front moving into the area from the west will interact
with a moisture laden low over the northern Gulf to produce the
first snow of the season for the Copper River Basin and gusty
northerly winds across the region as well as the coldest air of
the season to the area.

A cold front currently over the northern Susitna valley is being
pushed into the area by an upper level shortwave while low
pressure moving into the northern Gulf is producing rain across
the northern Gulf coast as well as the western Susitna valley. The
cold air will move across the area tonight dropping snow levels
to the surface across much of the area. This cold air will
interact with the moisture to produce snow. Snow will initially
develop over the northern Susitna Valley and along the Glenn
Highway east of Palmer in the higher elevations like Eureka.
Expect 7-9 inches of snow from roughly Eureka to Tolsona along
the Glenn Highway. While the lower elevations like Gulkana and
Chitina will see lower snow accumulations generally 2 to 4 inches.
Additionally, along the Edgerton Highway between Valdez and
Tonsina in higher elevations expect 4 to 6 inches of snow. See the
Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Copper Basin for more
information.

Rain will also change over to snow on the Anchorage Hillside
tonight with a half inch or less possible before ending early
Wednesday morning. Additionally, higher elevations in Eagle River
especially along Hiland Road will see up to an inch of snow
tonight through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise populated areas
like Anchorage and the MAT Valley as well as Kenai, Soldotna and
Homer will only see rain ending tonight with no snow expected.
Clouds will hang tough on Tuesday across Anchorage and the MAT
Valley keeping it cool throughout the day with highs in the 40s.

Strong gap winds aided by cold air advection will be the other
main impact from these two systems. Strong gusty winds can be
expected through the typical places, including the Barren Islands,
Seward, and Whittier. Gusts may reach as high as 50 mph for
Whittier and Seward on Tuesday. The Anchorage Bowl itself will
also be gusty with northwesterly winds gusting up to 35 mph,
especially on the west side of town. Elevated mountain passes,
particularly Thompson Pass, are also expected to experience some
blowing snow with gusty winds accompanying higher snowfall rates.

The weather will calm down on Wednesday as a weak shortwave ridge
moves in from the west. Clearing skies overnight will likely make
Wednesday morning the coldest of the week with lows dropping below
freezing at sea level for the mainland. High clouds will begin to
stream in from the southwest as the next large low moves in from
the north Pacific. Some uncertainty remains as to weather the low
will remain closed, or become complex with a second low center
developing along the front as it moves into the southern Gulf
Wednesday evening. Even so, fairly widespread Gales are expected
over the marine areas with the minimum low pressure bottoming out
somewhere in the 975-980 mb range. A storm force barrier jet is
possible along the Gulf Coast Thursday but remains uncertain at
this time. For precipitation, the Gulf Coast and Kodiak can expect
moderate to heavy rain as the front moves through the area. The
low center is expected to remain well into the Gulf, so northerly
outflow winds are likely through the typical spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

Much cooler temperatures and mixed rain/snow (especially along the
higher elevations) will fill Southwest AK in the next few days. Cold
air advection (-7 to -10C at 850 mb) will linger over the region,
followed by another sequence of much colder air from upstream
accompanying an Arctic trough that could arrive near the Yukon
Delta and Southwest Coast between Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. This trough is expected to focus heavily over Southwest
Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night, leading to a prolong
mixed rain/snow event and more further inland near the Kuskokwim
Delta. A cold front exiting Bristol Bay this afternoon will
provide gusty northwest winds up to 45 mph tonight, then tapering
off Tuesday morning. All in all, overnight temperatures will fall
in the lower 20s to lower 30s, with day time highs ranging in the
30s to mid 40s across Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

The Semisopochnoi volcano west of Adak is still currently active.

Two separate upper level ridges, one over the central Aleutians
and the next emerging ridge over the western Bering, will block an
upper trough from the North Pacific to remain over the southern
Bering and across the Aleutian Chain through Wednesday. The
Arctic trough over the Southwest Coast on Wednesday morning will
continue racing southward through the eastern Aleutians and the
Alaska Peninsula between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon.
This expected system could bring mixed rain/snow through the
eastern Bering especially near higher elevations over the eastern
Aleutians. As a result, anticipate a relatively quiet forecast
except for gales in several marine areas over the Aleutian Chain
between tonight and Tuesday night. Much stronger gusts will
continue along the gaps and passes especially along the Aleutians
through the next few days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/ Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska....A well-developed low south of Kodiak Island
moves to the North Gulf Coast by Friday. This low spreads
predominantly easterly high end gales, with several areas of storm
force winds, along the North Gulf Coast and northeasterly winds
through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, slowly diminishing Friday
night. Northwesterly high end gale force gap winds through the
Barren Islands and Sitkinak areas, Friday diminishing Saturday.
Seas to 19 ft spread across the Gulf, subsiding Saturday.

Bering Sea....A North Pacific low intensifies as it tracks along
the Aleutian Islands through Saturday. Predominantly high end
gales with the low and areas of storm force winds on the Pacific
side of the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea for Friday morning
through Saturday. Seas to 19 ft south of the Aleutians through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Long-range guidance is in very good agreement, showing a
continuation of an amplified pattern with well-defined and strong
upper-level features. A 140 kt subtropical jet outlines an upper-
level trough from east of Kamchatka to the Gulf of Alaska,
bookended by two distinct upper-level lows. The polar jet is
digging south from eastern Russia, and is acting to further
amplify the pattern downstream. The first upper-level low over the
western Gulf will move to the northern Gulf Friday before
weakening and moving inland. The polar jet will send a shortwave
south across the Bering while a second wave moves east with
support of the subtropical jet. Both systems will attempt to phase
and dig southward, amplifying a ridge out ahead of it across the
Gulf and over Southcentral. The upper-level trough then quickly
deepens and becomes a closed low south of the AKPen by Sunday
morning. This feature then moves to the northern Gulf by Monday
morning as an upper-level ridge builds in its wake.

The result of this pattern will be the erosion of the colder air
across the Southern Mainland as a southerly flow aloft develops
ahead of the trough in the western Gulf. Rain will continue across
coastal Southcentral through Saturday, with southeasterly gap
winds ahead of this system diminishing as the low moves toward
Prince William Sound. There will be some colder air wrapping
around the back side of the low, which will allow for rain to
transition to snow in the higher elevations.

As this system weakens, the next low moves into the western Gulf
for Sunday morning as its front lifts to the northern Gulf.
Another round of strong gap winds and rain are expected across
coastal locations with gale to storm-force easterly winds
expected ahead of the aforementioned front. Unsettled weather will
persist into early next week as the low continues to track toward
Prince William Sound.

Out west, the ridge will keep conditions rather quiet across the
eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians through early Saturday
before a storm-force low south of Attu begins to track east along
the Chain. This system will advect colder air behind it, with
northerly gales and storm-force gusts likely across the Bering and
central Bering Saturday and across the eastern Bering and
Aleutians and AKPen by Sunday. A second storm-force low then looks
to develop near Attu by late Sunday or early Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130-132 138 150 174-177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...CJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1129 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

AKZ131-211930-
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
1129 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...AN EARLY SEASON STORM TO BRING POSSIBLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
TO THOMPSON PASS...

Cold air will filter southward early Tuesday morning, allowing rain
to turn to snow and begin to accumulate. At the same time,
increasing winds on Tuesday may begin to cause visibility issues.
Blowing snow should be mitigated by warm road and surface
temperatures, but the combination of falling snow and wind are
expected to be impactful.

Stay tuned to the most current information at:
www.weather.gov/anchorage

AKZ125-211930-
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood,
and Moose Pass
1129 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED OVER WHITTIER AND SEWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A low moving into the Gulf will combine with incoming cold air
from the north to produce strong outflow winds through Seward and
Whittier through Wednesday. Sustained winds between 30 and 45 mph
are expected for both areas with gusts between 45 and 55 mph.
Winds will peak Tuesday morning and diminish slowly through
Wednesday. Time should be taken prior to the arrival of the winds
to secure loose items outdoors. With foliage still on the trees
there is a higher likelihood of damage to trees and falling tree
branches.

Stay tuned to the most current information at:
www.weather.gov/anchorage

AKZ171-211930-
Kodiak Island-
Including the city of Kodiak City
1129 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...RESUSPENDED ASH FROM NOVARUPTA OVER KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...

Strong northwesterly winds to 45 mph have developed across
Shelikof Strait and the waters around southern Kodiak Island, and will
persist through Tuesday. These winds have resuspended ash from
the 1912 Novarupta eruption, causing haze and reductions in air
quality. Villages such as Karluk and Akhiok are most likely to be
impacted.

Those with respiratory ailments in these areas are encouraged to
avoid or reduce outdoor activity to avoid inhaling the ash.

The winds will subside by Tuesday night, which will cause the air
quality to improve.