Small Craft Advisory 711, NWS Anchorage, AK

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 111154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120100-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves into the western Gulf on Sat afternoon and moves
across the Gulf through Sun night. 

$$

PKZ119-120100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120100-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120100-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120100-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120100-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120100-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120100-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120100-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the late afternoon. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120100-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming S. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120100-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120100-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-120100-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Large, broad upper level trough pattern continues to dominate over
the Bering Sea, with a series of embedded shortwaves and surface
lows cycling around it. Attached to the base of the first trough
is a large low tracking across the southern Gulf towards the
Southeast Coast. This system remains well enough south to keep the
majority of the precipitation along the Coastal areas. As the
trough slides northward, the Gulf low detaches and scoots off to
the east. There will likely be an upslope component associated
with the upper level trough, that will likely end up producing
areas of precipitation along the mountain ranges in the Mat-Su
Valleys.

A separate, compact low traveling across the Bering Sea today
moves onshore over the Southwest Coast by Saturday morning. A
deformation band sets up over Bristol Bay between the two systems,
resulting in waves of precipitation over the area. At the same
time, a second Bering low forms immediately behind the first,
developing just west of the Pribilof Islands Saturday morning. A
surge of cold air wraps around the south side of the complex,
advecting across the Bering and producing areas of convective
activity.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement through the short
term. Model spread continues to grow as they progress forward into
the weekend. There are quite a few discrepancies, however, two
systems in particular the models seem to be struggling with the
most. The first is with the low moving across the Bering through
the weekend. The NAM/Canadian seem to be in relatively good
agreement through Saturday night before beginning to diverge
slightly by Sunday morning. The GFS tracks further west that the
previous two and is significantly stronger, while the EC becomes
an open trough. The second system is a low developing in the North
Pacific and tracking towards the Southern Gulf. The main issues
lie with the placement of the low center and the path the low
takes through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance for some brief light fog development during the early
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

An active and quickly changing weather pattern continues across
Southcentral through this weekend. A well-formed and vertically
stacked low is drifting over the southern Gulf, and will be
gradually making its way east to northeast towards the Panhandle
by tonight. This will cause most of the hazardous weather and gale
force winds to subside through the day today. A period of offshore
flow and gusty northwesterly winds will cause the atmosphere to
dry out, allowing for another nice today by Saturday.

For the rest of today, while the Gulf low moves away, an upper
level front moves northeastward across the Susitna Valley and
Copper River Basin this afternoon. This will increase the shower
coverage along many of the area mountains, but most low-lying
areas will remain mostly dry. Nevertheless, expect another mostly
cloudy day, with the sun trying to return around sunset. Skies
will clear from southwest to northeast tonight.

Saturday will definitely be the better of the two weekend days,
with lots of sunshine expected and generally light winds. Clouds
will build from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon, with a
chance of rain in Kodiak.

Sunday will be a very interesting day weather-wise, which will not
be a good thing for some folks. A North Pacific low centered near
Chignik late Saturday night will draw energy from a Bering low
and associated front, causing rapid strengthening Sunday morning.
The low will track straight north into Bristol Bay, then move to
near Aniak by early Monday morning. Its leading front will move
into the coast while oriented parallel to it Sunday evening. The
winds will rapidly increase ahead of the front during the day.
Gusts up to 70 mph are possible through Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations. Heavy rain is expected along the coast, with very
little in Anchorage due to downsloping. Once the front turns the
winds up-Inlet Sunday evening, gusty winds out of Turnagain Arm to
40 mph will impact Anchorage, especially south and west
Anchorage. It is possible that the gusty winds will also move down
the Eagle River Valley and over northeast Anchorage as well, but
won't be quite as strong as along Turnagain Arm. This early season
event has the potential to be impactful, given the trees are
still in full leaf, it's occurring on a weekend day when more
people are outside, and it's the first one of the season.

There is also potential for the wind gusts to be higher than
advertised, which may require a future High Wind Watch or Warning.
There remains some uncertainty on the timing and strength of the
winds, so stay tuned for forecast updates today and tomorrow as
the details of this storm get ironed out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2)...

A compact low pinwheeling into St Lawrence Island is sending a
trailing cold front across much of Southwest Alaska this morning.
This front should continue to work its way inland today, with a
band of showers following along the boundary as it moves across
from west to east. Gusty west winds will pick up behind the front
through this afternoon along with continued widely scattered
shower activity fueled by strong cold air advection coupled with
steep low level lapse rates and associated instability. A few of
these showers could produce occasional lightning strikes, mainly
over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley during the afternoon hours.

A second compact system will impact the Southwest tomorrow night,
moving northeast across Nunivak Island and into the Y-K Delta by
early Saturday morning. This will bring a quick-hitting round of
rain and winds back across the Y-K Delta, with southwest winds
gusting up to 40 mph near the coastline possible as the low moves
onshore. There is some threat for this period of strong onshore
flow to result in a short duration of elevated water levels along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, particularly close to high tide early
on Saturday morning near the mouth of the Kuskokwim River. Those
with interests in this area should continue to monitor the
forecast for possible headlines for the threat for elevated water
levels coincidence with the expected period of strong onshore
winds.

Yet another low and trailing frontal system will cross the
eastern Bering and curve north into or just west of Nunivak
Island later on Saturday, bringing continued onshore winds and
increasing rainfall coverage from west to east through early
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2)...

A low near St Lawrence Island and associated front extending into
the Y-K Delta will continue to lift northeast and out of the
forecast area this morning. The pattern from there will remain
unsettled across the Bering as a second low tracks across the
Pribilofs this afternoon and then northeast into Nunivak Island by
late tonight. This low will bring a brief period of moderate rain
and gusty small craft winds across the Pribilofs and eastern
Bering, with a period of southerly gale force winds expected south
of Nunivak Island from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
A third system will eject from a deep and complex upper level low
drifting across the Bering on Saturday, taking a similar but
slightly more northward track to the first low. This next low
pressure and related frontal system will keep conditions wet and
breezy over most of the Eastern Bering/Aleutians through early
Sunday.

Farther west and behind the third low's trailing front,
substantial cold air advection over a relatively warm sea surface
will generate significant low level instability by standards for
this region across the Bering Sea by Saturday morning. This will
support intense convective shower activity that will migrate east
with time between Saturday and early Sunday morning. Occasional
lightning strikes possible with the strongest cells, potentially
at times impacting the Western Aleutians and perhaps even out to
the Pribilofs by daybreak on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A developing low looks to move from the western
Gulf toward Kodiak Island for Sunday. There is some uncertainty
on the exact track and strength of this system, but there is
increasing confidence of an area of southeasterly gales along the
associated front in an area from northeast of Kodiak City to the
Barren Islands. This area of gales should lift to the north Gulf
coast and Price William Sound by late Sunday. There is less
confidence of developing southwesterly gales across Shelikof
Strait Monday, and with gales redeveloping across the Barren
Islands and coastal waters east of Kodiak Island by Tuesday, as
the low continues to track north and east.

Bering: A compact low near Bristol Bay will likely produce an area
of northwesterly gales across the coastal waters of Southwest
Alaska through Monday morning before the low tracks inland. A
Kamchatka Low will advance a front across the western Aleutians
late Monday and to the AKPen by late Tuesday. There is still low
confidence that winds will reach gales and, if so, during what
time frame. However, northerly gales do look to move across the
western Aleutians and Bering by late Tuesday behind the low as it
tracks across the western half of the Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

The extended forecast begins Sunday night with a seemingly
persistent longwave trough anchored across the Bering and an
upper-level ridge extending from the eastern Gulf north and west
to the Chukchi Sea. Two upper-level lows bookend the longwave
trough, with the first centered near the AKPen and the second near
the Gulf of Anadyr. On Monday, the first low lifts northeast over
the state, eventually lifting back to the northwest by Tuesday.
This first low replaces the second low that drops south in
response. Models then diverge as to the track of this second
upper-level low, but there is some agreement that it may either
phase with an upper-level shortwave moving toward the western
Aleutians or dig south behind this shortwave, with both moving
east along the Chain through midweek. Either way, this will keep
the longwave trough over the Bering, with an active weather
pattern continuing from the eastern Aleutians to the Southern
Mainland.

At the surface, the active pattern means a continuation of cool,
cloudy, and unsettled weather across the region. The first surface
low will move near Bristol Bay by late Sunday with active weather
advancing east for Monday. Clouds and showers linger across the
Southern Mainland through Tuesday, with perhaps a brief reprieve
overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, before the next
system arrives for Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE... Gale Warning 119 120 132 180 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV/TM