Small Craft Advisory 708, NWS Anchorage, AK

832 
FZAK51 PAFC 110008
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111315-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 mb low 265 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves to 170 nm
south of Yakutat at 1002 mb Sat morning. A 995 mb low 95 nm south
of Sitkinak Island Sun morning moves to Cook Inlet at 983 mb Sun 
afternoon and then inland Sun night. The associated front crosses 
the entire Gulf through Sunday.

$$

PKZ119-111315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111315-
Resurrection Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111315-
Prince William Sound-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111315-
Port Valdez-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111315-
Valdez Narrows-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111315-
Valdez Arm-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111315-
Passage Canal-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111315-
Barren Islands East-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape
after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111315-
Chiniak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111315-
Marmot Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111315-
Shelikof Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-111315-
Kachemak Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 111154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120100-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves into the western Gulf on Sat afternoon and moves
across the Gulf through Sun night. 

$$

PKZ119-120100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120100-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120100-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120100-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120100-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120100-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120100-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120100-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the late afternoon. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120100-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming S. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120100-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120100-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-120100-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 PM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough is anchored over the Bering Sea with
multiple shortwaves embedded and rotating around its base. A deep
area of low pressure is located in the western Gulf moving east.
With the support of a 120 kt polar jet phasing with the
subtropical jet and strong cold air advection moving out of
eastern Russia, this area of low pressure continues to deepen and
dig the longwave trough farther into the Gulf. Radar is showing
showers moving into Prince William Sound with a pulse of energy
lifting northwest ahead of the main upper level low. Areas of
light rain around the Anchorage Bowl early this morning has
tapered off with clouds diminishing, due to downsloping from an
increasing southeasterly cross-barrier flow along the coastal
mountains. Farther south, satellite shows a swath of clouds from
Kodiak Island east across the Gulf associated with the low moving
northward with the front toward the Southcentral coast.

A transient ridge is extending from the central Aleutians to the
Alaska Peninsula and is sliding east with the trough. Satellite is
showing low stratus from Attu to Nikolski with brief clearing
ahead in the ridge axis. Farther north, a cold front is moving
across the central Bering and is approaching the Pribilof Islands.
There is plenty of instability associated with the front as noted
by the towering cumulus visible on satellite along the northern
half of the front. An elongated area of cumulus is also visible on
satellite ahead of the front moving over the Southern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through the
short-term. However, model spread grows on the timing of when the
low currently over the Gulf will reach Southeast Alaska. The NAM
is producing a faster solution than the GFS/EC model runs. Another
difference is noticed with how the models handle the longwave
trough positioned over the western Bering. The GFS has the trough
digging farther south than the NAM, which will affect how far the
transient ridge will extend northward upstream of the low. In
association with this trough, the GFS/Canadian solutions show a
53l dm upper-level low forming over the Alaska Peninsula, with
the Canadian positioning slightly north over Bristol Bay Sunday
evening. The EC has the upper-level low in the same location as
the Canadian solution but slightly stronger at 527 dm. However,
the NAM does not have a closed low forming and in its place is a
broad trough with multiple shortwaves embedded within it. Overall,
forecast confidence is good for the short-term but average for
the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A brief
period of light rain over the terminal is possible late tonight
through early morning Friday. VFR ceilings are expected to persist
with any light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday afternoon)...

A low encompassing the entire Gulf is currently bringing gusty
easterly winds and periods of heavy rain across Kodiak this
afternoon. This will generally continue through Friday morning.
Additional rainfall amounts exceeding one inch are likely. Given
the current track of the low, much of the precipitation will
remain offshore, though light rain will occur along the Gulf coast
into Friday afternoon. An upper ridge will build over
Southcentral on Saturday. Morning fog is possible near Cook Inlet.
Temperatures will warm into the low 60s by the afternoon with
clearing skies. Clouds will again increase Sunday as the next
system approaches. Rain will track from Kodiak on Sunday morning
into the Kenai Peninsula by afternoon, however areas on the lee
side of the Chugach Mountains look to remain initially downsloped.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cloudy skies and showers will continue across Southwest Alaska
over the next couple of days. Broad southwesterly synoptic flow
will continue to advect moisture into the region from the Bering
Sea. This moisture will allow for ample cloud cover with
intermittent showers. A cold front will move over the Kuskokwim
Delta tonight and bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the
region. Ample atmospheric instability is expected behind this
frontal boundary due to strong cold air advection over the warmer
sea surface temperatures (late August-September is when the
warmest sea surface temperatures of the year occur). The surface
and elevated instability has the potential to generate
thunderstorms. This slight chance for thunderstorms will mainly be
over the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley Friday morning and
afternoon. For the remainder of the forecast period, broad
onshore flow continues the cloudy and showery pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Ample atmospheric instability will continue to make for unsettled
weather across the Bering/Aleutians. A cold front currently over
the eastern Bering Sea will continue moving eastward and over land
on Friday. Strong cold air advection is occurring behind the
front which makes for ample atmospheric instability, thus making
for a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Bering Sea. The
slight chance of thunderstorms will remain over the northern
Bering Sea tonight through Friday evening. Another push of cold
air is expected over the western Bering Sea on Saturday which will
allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, the
pattern will remain cloudy with showers. No high seas expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A developing low looks to move from the western
Gulf toward Kodiak Island for Sunday. There is some uncertainty
on the exact track and strength of this system, but there is
increasing confidence of an area of southeasterly gales along the
associated front in an area from northeast of Kodiak City to the
Barren Islands. This area of gales should lift to the north Gulf
coast and Price William Sound by late Sunday. There is less
confidence of developing southwesterly gales across Shelikof
Strait Monday, and with gales redeveloping across the Barren
Islands and coastal waters east of Kodiak Island by Tuesday, as
the low continues to track north and east.

Bering: A compact low near Bristol Bay will likely produce an area
of northwesterly gales across the coastal waters of Southwest
Alaska through Monday morning before the low tracks inland. A
Kamchatka Low will advance a front across the western Aleutians
late Monday and to the AKPen by late Tuesday. There is still low
confidence that winds will reach gales and, if so, during what
time frame. However, northerly gales do look to move across the
western Aleutians and Bering by late Tuesday behind the low as it
tracks across the western half of the Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

The extended forecast begins Sunday night with a seemingly
persistent longwave trough anchored across the Bering and an
upper-level ridge extending from the eastern Gulf north and west
to the Chukchi Sea. Two upper-level lows bookend the longwave
trough, with the first centered near the AKPen and the second near
the Gulf of Anadyr. On Monday, the first low lifts northeast over
the state, eventually lifting back to the northwest by Tuesday.
This first low replaces the second low that drops south in
response. Models then diverge as to the track of this second
upper-level low, but there is some agreement that it may either
phase with an upper-level shortwave moving toward the western
Aleutians or dig south behind this shortwave, with both moving
east along the Chain through midweek. Either way, this will keep
the longwave trough over the Bering, with an active weather
pattern continuing from the eastern Aleutians to the Southern
Mainland.

At the surface, the active pattern means a continuation of cool,
cloudy, and unsettled weather across the region. The first surface
low will move near Bristol Bay by late Sunday with active weather
advancing east for Monday. Clouds and showers linger across the
Southern Mainland through Tuesday, with perhaps a brief reprieve
overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, before the next
system arrives for Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 131 136 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM/NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV/TM