Small Craft Advisory 703, NWS Anchorage, AK

144 
FZAK51 PAFC 091137
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100100-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 mb low enters the Southwest Gulf 220 nm southeast of Akhiok
on Thu morning and moves to 250 nm southeast of Kodiak at 982 mb
by Thu evening. The low then moves to 250 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island at 993 mb by Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-100100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100100-
Resurrection Bay-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100100-
Prince William Sound-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100100-
Port Valdez-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100100-
Valdez Narrows-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100100-
Valdez Arm-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100100-
Passage Canal-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100100-
Barren Islands East-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 35 kt
becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100100-
Chiniak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100100-
Marmot Bay-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100100-
Shelikof Strait-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-100100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-100100-
Kachemak Bay-
337 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough is in place over the Bering keeping
persistent stratus and fog across the area. An upper level
shortwave embedded within this broad trough is currently lifting
over Southwest, bringing light rain showers to the Alaska
Peninsula and interior Bristol Bay region. Farther east, a ridge
axis extends over the Alaska- Yukon border. Persistent marine
stratus continues over the central and southern Gulf this morning
given subsidence associated with the ridge. A 145 knot jet streak
at 300 mb is located at the base of the trough over the Aleutian
Chain. As the jet pushes eastward and runs into the ridge, it is
gradually becoming a more amplified pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models have come into much better agreement with the
development and track of a low moving into the Gulf Thursday
night. As the low forms south of the Aleutian Chain this
afternoon, there is some slight disagreement on the position of
the low center. The 6z run of the NAM and GFS keep the low center
slightly farther south while the Canadian presents a more
northerly solution. However by the time the low enters the Gulf
Thursday night, model solutions are mostly dialed in to the low
center tracking over the northern Gulf waters with a central
pressure around 985 mb Thursday night. There is also good
agreement across model solutions with this low gradually weakening
and moving over the Panhandle Saturday. Meanwhile farther west,
there is good agreement that an upper level wave will move inland
over the Kuskokwim Delta Coast Thursday into Friday. Forecast
confidence through the short term is average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Expect VFR ceilings and light winds to continue. There is
a chance for ceilings to drop to 5,000 feet and light rain to
develop Wednesday afternoon as a weak trough approaches from the
west. Gusty southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds may arrive over the
terminal for a brief period of time late this afternoon/early
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Thursday)...

Much more active weather is on the way to Southcentral over the
short-term. Much of today will remain on the quiet side...
relatively speaking. An upper level disturbance moving across
Southwest Alaska will move north and weaken throughout the day
today. Due to the southwesterly flow associated with the
disturbance, Gulf moisture will continue moving in with the wave.
Thus, despite weakening forcing the extra moisture is likely to
result in a period of light rain across much of the Cook Inlet
region today, spreading across the area from south to north. This
will be coincident with a brief round of southeasterly winds
moving down Turnagain Arm into south and west Anchorage. These
winds will be brief and weak, gusting to 20 mph at most, with
stronger winds remaining offshore. The light rain will also spread
into the Susitna Valley through Wednesday night, where upslope
flow will enhance the lift.

Behind this initial batch of rain, southeasterly flow across the
mountains will slowly increase ahead of a strong low moving into
the Gulf. This will result in a typical precipitation pattern of
upslope flow and steady rain for the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
downsloping for the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the
Mat-Su into Thursday morning. Precipitation directly associated
with the leading front will begin across Kodiak Island this
evening. Rainfall rates will increase through the night into
Thursday morning, along with increasing east to northeasterly
winds in Kodiak City. The heaviest rain in Kodiak will occur
Thursday afternoon, with the rain rapidly diminishing behind the
leading front Thursday evening. Lowered forecast storm total
rainfall amounts back below 2 inches for the storm, expecting that
by Thursday evening any rain that falls will be very light due to
offshore flow and some downsloping that will develop as the winds
turn northwesterly.

Farther north, on the whole the impacts from this storm will be
much more tempered. A typical barrier jet is likely to develop
along the north Gulf Coast from Cape Suckling to Hinchinbrook
Entrance from midday Thursday through Friday. With the track of
the low expected to remain over the southern Gulf, the barrier jet
is not expected to become extremely strong, due to a lack of
isallobaric forcing. With that said, the broad geostrophic flow
around the low will be plenty strong enough to support localized
downsloping and keep Anchorage and the western Kenai dry for most
of the event. As usual, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out.
Northerly down-Inlet flow will also work to keep the winds from
Turnagain Arm out of the Anchorage Bowl, though they'll get gusty
on the Upper Hillside. The strong easterly flow will also spare
the Seward area from the brunt of the heaviest rain with this low
as well, with around a half inch of new rain expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A shortwave trough will move across Bristol Bay today producing
areas of light rain, otherwise just a few showers across the rest
of Southwest Alaska with many areas remaining dry today. A
strengthening low pressure system will begin to affect the area
tonight and Thursday as it moves south of the AKPEN. This will
bring increasing easterly winds across Bristol Bay and areas of
light rain, however downsloping will keep some areas dry to the
west of the mountains. Friday a low pressure system over the
northeastern Bering will push a cold front across Southwest Alaska
bringing chances of showers and colder air to the region. This
will also bring gusty winds to the Y-K Delta on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

Two distinct low pressure systems south of the Aleutians will
combine by this afternoon and deepen as cold air moves into the
western side of the shortwave trough supporting this low. This
deepening low will produce high end Gales and pockets of Storm
Force winds south of the eastern Aleutians and south of the AKPEN
this afternoon through early Thursday morning. This low will
continue to deepen through Thursday and move east into the Gulf
with continued high end Gales south of the AKPEN through early
Friday morning. A compact low and cold front will move across the
Bering later today through Thursday this will bring instability
especially near the low where convective showers and even a few
lightning strikes are possible due to very cold air aloft. Another
low will develop near the western Aleutians Thursday night and
move across the south Bering Friday, however there is a bit of
uncertainty among models on the evolution of this low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A deep low will be positioned in the Gulf Friday,
with a front wrapped around the Gulf coast. The low appears like
it will take a track across the southern Gulf, in which case
expect a swath of gale force winds near the Gulf coast. However,
if it were to track juts a bit farther north, this would result
in a stronger barrier jet along the north Gulf coast, with winds
likely reaching storm force. In any case, the low will exit
eastward Friday night and Saturday with winds rapidly diminishing
across the region. Forecast confidence decrease for Sunday, with
potential for a new low or front to arrive in the Gulf from the
Bering Sea. Timing of this system is very much in question.

Bering: Expect a series of lows to transit the Bering
Sea/Aleutians/Southwest coast through the 3 day period. While it
is difficult to nail down the exact track of each low, gales are
likely near low centers. The fast flow pattern also supports
rapidly changing conditions as each system moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long term starts out on Saturday with the upper-level pattern
dominated by two upper-level lows. The first is in the eastern
Gulf and is continuing its eastward progression toward the Alaska
Panhandle. The second is positioned over the northern Bering with
a shortwave extending from it and lifting north across the
northern half of the state. Weak ridging between the two moves
over Southcentral Saturday, but quickly shifts to the Al-Can
border by Sunday as the longwave trough upstream digs south over
the Aleutian Chain and reestablishes the southwesterly flow from
the North Pacific to Southcentral. A shortwave embedded within the
trough looks to move to the AKPen for Sunday and into the
northern Gulf for late Sunday evening or early Monday. A second
shortwave moves quickly into the Gulf behind the first late
Monday, with the entire longwave trough shifting east, centered
over Southwest Alaska by Tuesday.

At the surface, a front will extend across the interior of the
state for Saturday with rain for the interior portions Southern
Mainland tapering off by afternoon. The next system will move
toward the AKPen by Sunday, supported by the upper-level wave.
This system will move to the northern Gulf by Monday morning. Wet
and unsettled weather with cooler temperatures will remain through
Tuesday as the trough moves overhead.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 119, 120, 130, 131, 132, 136, 137, 138, 150, 155,
172, 174, 351, 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/SB/TM