Small Craft Advisory 661, NWS Anchorage, AK

505 
FZAK52 PAFC 221149
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230100-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1006 mb low 100 nm south of Cold Bay moves east and dissipates 
Sun evening. Another 1002 mb low 90 nm north of St Paul moves to 
40 nm northwest of Cape Newenham at 1001 mb Tue morning. Its 
front sweeps along the AKPEN and eastern Bering into the Gulf 
through Sun evening. A 1012 mb low 140 nm north of Attu Island 
moves east and dissipates Mon morning. A 1004 mb North Pacific low
moves to 230 nm southwest of Adak at 1007 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-230100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230100-
Bristol Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-230100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230100-
Unalaska Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230100-
Adak to Kiska-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230100-
Kiska to Attu-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

046 
FZAK52 PAFC 222319
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231215-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 170 nm northeast of Saint Paul moves to 110 nm west of
Goodnews Bay at 1001 mb Mon afternoon. Its associated front moves 
along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Bering into the Gulf through 
tonight. A 1000 mb North Pacific low moves to 115 nm south of Adak at
1007 mb Tue afternoon. A 1000 mb Kamchatka low moves to 280 nm north
of Amchitka Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-231215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231215-
Bristol Bay-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231215-
Unalaska Bay-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231215-
Adak to Kiska-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231215-
Kiska to Attu-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
319 PM AKDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 15 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 15 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

134 
FZAK52 PAFC 231153
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240115-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1012 mb low 190 nm north of Amchitka moves east and dissipates 
Mon afternoon. A 1001 mb low 20 nm south of Nunivak Island moves 
to 50 nm east of Cape Newenham at 1002 mb Tue morning and moves 
inland Tue evening and dissipates. A 1003 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 170 nm southwest of Unalaska at 1006 mb Wed morning. A 
1004 mb Kamchatka low moves to 140 nm north of Amchitka at 1002 
mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-240115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240115-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240115-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240115-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240115-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-240115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-240115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The longwave trough that brought areas of Southcentral heavy
downpours last evening continues moving off to the east and into
Canada. In its wake, an upper level ridge is seen building over
much of southern Alaska this morning with heights rising. Some
residual moisture leftover in the Copper River Basin from last
evenings heavy downpours has allowed for areas of fog to develop
for Gulkana. Cordova has also been observing some fog this morning.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are otherwise being observed
this morning across most of southern Alaska as a result of the
upper level ridge building in. The axis of this ridge was
approximately centered from Nunivak Island south through Sand
Point into the North Pacific. High clouds were seen streaming in
across Southwest Alaska this morning due to a frontal system over
the eastern Bering. Temperatures area-wide are mostly in the 40s
with a few areas dipping into the 30s most notably Sleetmute in
Southwest Alaska this morning and Eureka in the Copper River
Basin. Some areas are still in the 50s such as Seward in the mid
50s this morning due to the stiff north wind continuing to occur
for that area. Whittier was also very warm yet this morning with
temperatures hovering near 60 degrees due to the gusty southwest
wind there.

An upper level low continues to meander about south of Adak this
morning which continues to keep much of the Aleutian Island Chain
and the Bering Sea unsettled. Looking at the CIMSS Mimic
Precipitable water this morning, there is a long fetch of deep
moisture extending from approximately the Pribilofs south to the
latitude of Hawaii. This is indicative of a very moisture laden
system as this low continues to stream tropical moisture
northward. Some small craft advisory level winds were occurring
with this system but mainly on the eastern and northern side of
it. One last upper level low was seen moving slowly southward from
eastern Russia towards the Western Aleutians this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic scale features
out through Day 3. The differences in the model guidance arise
when this upper level low moves into the northern/central Gulf Mon
afternoon. The EC and NAM are similar to each other in that they
both bring the upper level low right up to near Homer/Seldovia
while the GFS and Canadian-NH keep the upper level low well out
over the open waters of the Gulf of Alaska Monday evening. Due to
the differences in placement of this upper level low, the forecast
regarding Seward is tricky in terms of how much downsloping occurs
which in turn will affect how much rain they see Sunday night into
Monday. If the first two solutions were to verify, then expect a
longer southerly fetch through Resurrection Bay into Seward which
in part will aid in more rainfall. If the GFS and Canadian-NH were
to verify then the easterly flow over Seward would occur earlier
and cause less rain to fall in Seward as the flow goes cross-
barrier. This will continue to be fine-tuned in subsequent
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2:
Today through Monday)...

A transient upper-level ridge will continue to build across
Southcentral today as the trough downstream slides southeast and
away from the region. The result will be clear and dry conditions
along with diminishing northerly and westerly gap winds across the
Southcentral coast. These gap winds are expected to peak early this
morning for Seward and Whittier and later in the afternoon for
Valdez and Thompson Pass. Patchy fog will also be a concern this
morning as clearing skies allow for radiational cooling,
especially for sheltered valley locations that will take a bit
longer to dry out from the rain yesterday.

The northerly flow is also ushering in a cooler airmass which,
combined with the clearing skies and light winds, will lead to
temperatures this morning in the mid 30s to mid 40s for much of
interior Southcentral. Subsidence will continue underneath the
ridge today, providing a mostly sunny and mild afternoon for most
locations, albeit with a few high clouds passing by. Clear skies
and calm winds tonight will bring slightly colder overnight low
temperatures, especially for the Copper River Basin, where lows
could drop below freezing.

The ridge will shift east through Sunday as the next storm system
advances from the west. A low in the eastern Bering will push a
front to the western Gulf with rain and increasing southeasterly
winds for Kodiak Island. The front occludes as it advances to the
the southern Kenai Peninsula by late Sunday afternoon or evening
then over the Southern Mainland overnight. As it does, a triple
point low will develop east of Kodiak City and move slowly toward
the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast. There is still plenty of model
disagreement as to how quickly the front moves over the Southern
Mainland and exactly where the surface low spins up. However,
clouds will be on the increase for Southcentral Sunday with rain
and gusty southeasterly gap winds developing by afternoon. A deep
southerly flow aloft will advect plenty of moisture from the
tropical Pacific, yielding moderate amounts of rain along the
immediate coast and, perhaps, from Cook Inlet north to the Susitna
Valley with a southwesterly flow aloft, at least initially. The
big question will be how a developing warm front associated with
the new low positions itself as it nears the Southcentral coast
Monday morning. The NAM brings it closer, with a stronger cross
barrier flow. This solution would allow for a better chance of
downsloping along the lee of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains,
limiting rainfall amounts across the Anchorage Bowl. The GFS, is
not nearly as robust with the cross- barrier flow, keeping a
better chance for rain over Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl
through Monday afternoon. Given the uncertainty, a blend of the
two models was used for the forecast with a nudge to the GFS for
areal coverage of rain and QPF due to the depth of moisture moving
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday morning)...

High pressure over the area this morning will give way to a warm
front moving across the eastern Bering with increasing clouds
today and light rain developing near coastal locations through the
day. Tonight the rain will spread inland as the front makes its
way onshore. Sunday the front will continue to push rain across
much of the region. Monday chances of showers will continue as low
pressure spins off the Kuskokwim Delta coast, however the rain
will be more showery so it will not be a total washout.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday morning)...

A complex low pressure system with a series of lows and a frontal
system will keep the Bering and Aleutians unsettled through
Monday. Today the main low center spinning south of Adak will move
east into the north Pacific tonight. While an associated warm
frontal system will push into the AKPEN and northern and eastern
Bering with periods of moderate rain and small craft winds,
especially in the eastern Bering where the best upper level energy
resides. A surface low will develop along the front today and
move north tonight into the northern Bering this will become the
dominate low with small craft winds near the low center. Sunday
this low will slow down and become quasi-stationary near Nunivak
Island. While a shortwave pushes the frontal system inland Sunday.
Monday a shortwave will interact with the low and will begin to
move east towards Bristol Bay with small craft winds mainly on the
west side of the low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period, with a few weak lows transiting the
Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. The only potential exception is a
chance for a small swath of gale force winds along the Gulf coast
on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A broad longwave trough with transient shortwaves will remain over
much of the forecast area through the extended period. The primary
jet will remain over the North Pacific, while the polar jet
begins to build over the North Slope, anchored by a strong, nearly
stationary upper level low. Starting on Wednesday, a vertically
stacked low over the Central Aleutians will begin a slow
progression towards the eastern Gulf on Friday. This will keep
most of the southern Mainland in an area of overcast and rainy
weather through the start of the weekend. There is some
uncertainty on how fast the trough will move through the area,
with some model guidance keeping the trough over the north Pacific
through the weekend. Additional uncertainty lies in the trough
over the North Slope. Model guidance shows a considerable cold
airmass building aloft, which may result in shortwaves moving
south into the Mainland around the polar trough axis. These would
help to keep weather unsettled over the interior areas of
Southcentral and Southwest. Due to the multiple competing
shortwaves, the timing of individual systems remains uncertain,
but generally unsettled, rainy weather is expected in the long
term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/CJ