Small Craft Advisory 624, NWS Anchorage, AK

736 
FZAK52 PAFC 100210 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101245-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi Volcano, 140 nm west of Adak is currently active.

A 988 mb low near Chignik exits into the Gulf tonight. A series 
of weak lows drift across the Bering through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101245-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101245-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101245-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101245-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

155 
FZAK52 PAFC 101150
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110100-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 mb low 150 nm southeast of Chignik Wed morning will enter 
the Gulf Wed afternoon. A series of weak lows drift across the 
Bering through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110100-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110100-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110100-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110100-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 AM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The jet stream extends from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the south
of the Aleutian Chain and into the Gulf of Alaska, with the core
at 130+ kts. A 500 mb low embedded in the jet over the eastern
Bering Sea has moved into Bristol Bay. The associated surface low
and frontal boundary coupled with strong dynamic support and
ample moisture supply from remnants of tropical systems from the
west Pacific contributed significant amount of rainfall over the
last 24 hours in Southcentral. Ted Stevens International Airport
set a record on August 8th with 1.25" compared to the old record
of 1.06" set in 2016. As of 12Z/4AM AKDT, the forecast office had
measured 1.41" of rain since yesterday. Based on the CIMSS MIMIC
precipitable water imagery, a deep fetch of moisture extends
northeastward to southern Alaska with a series of tropical systems
that will help maintain a very active storm track across the
Pacific for this week. This is demonstrated quite well so far on
the 12Z Anchorage upper air sounding with an impressive saturated
profile up to near 17,000 ft and a total PW value of 0.81."

Radar is detecting light rain over Bristol Bay and light to
moderate rain showers from the Kenai Peninsula northward into
Anchorage Bowl and the Mat-Su Valleys, and Prince William Sound
into the Copper River Basin. The latest ASCAT passes shows gusty
winds funneling through gaps and passes of the central Aleutians
and southern AKPEN and over the marine areas in the Gulf as well.
A secondary surface low can be seen on satellite south of Dutch
Harbor, bringing another round of rain and wind along the Aleutian
Chain and into coastal Southwest this morning and then
Southcentral later today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in agreement with the overall synoptic scale features
in the short term and still on track for a Fall-like pattern for
the week ahead. The differences lie where the wave train of
tropical systems will exactly track, including timing of
precipitation and winds affecting the forecast areas during the
middle of the week. For now, the bulk of moisture seems to be
concentrated in eastern Prince William Sound and Yakutat, but a
slight deviation could change, with subsequent model runs needed
for consistency and increase forecast certainty as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Rain will continue tapering off this morning with vicinity
showers near the terminal. In the wake of the front from
yesterday, expect gusty south winds and ceilings conditions
improving to VFR. Chances of rain returns this afternoon and
evening at the terminal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday night)...

A series of upper level waves will continue to transit Southcentral
today. The atmosphere remains quite moist and weakly unstable, so
locally heavy showers will remain a threat. Meanwhile, the remnants
of Tropical Storm Nida - now in the form of an extratropical low -
will track south of the Alaska Peninsula today, then pass in the
vicinity of Kodiak Island early this evening. Similar to the
system that dropped a ton of rain over Southcentral on Sunday,
upper level forcing is impressive with a 130kt+ jet streak and
strong short-wave tracking along the jet. Satellite based Total
Precipitable Water estimates show abundant tropical moisture
accompanying this system, with values of 1.5 to 2" streaming
northeastward toward the Gulf. The big difference with this new
set-up is the presence of a deep surface low, whose wind fields
will interact with the mountains of Southcentral and affect
precipitation intensity and distribution. In addition, the upper
jet is oriented southwest to northeast with the strongest core
of winds crossing over the western to northern Gulf coast. The
significance of this is that the juiciest air will remain just
south of Southcentral, tracking toward the northeast Gulf coast.

So, what does all this mean for the forecast? Expect, steady rain
to spread across Kodiak Island today, then all of Southcentral
tonight. The heaviest precipitation will be across the Prince
William Sound region, right ahead of the upper level short-wave
and in the area of best jet dynamics. The primary short-wave will
quickly exit into the Yukon Tuesday morning, though additional
weaker short-waves behind it will cause precipitation to linger,
especially across the northern Susitna Valley and all of the
Copper River Basin. Rainfall totals tonight through Tuesday will
be quite a bit lighter than Sunday's event for inland areas of
Southcentral, ranging from one quarter to one half inch. Prince
William Sound looks to get another 1 to 2 inches, with highest
totals in the mountains of the northern to eastern sound. All of
this rain (what has fallen and what is to come) will cause a
healthy rise in area rivers. However, water levels heading into
Sunday's event were low, so do not expect any flooding issues at
this time.

As for the surface low, there is still a bit of uncertainty in the
exact track of the low across the Gulf. Based on latest trends in
Satellite imagery and model data, we have shifted the low track a
bit farther west in the Gulf, passing over or just west of Kodiak
Island this evening then hugging the north Gulf coast overnight
through Tuesday morning. As a result, have upped forecast winds
from Shelikof Strait to Cook Inlet as well as for Prince William
Sound and bordering bays and passes. Have kept most of the gale
force winds out over the open Gulf waters. However, it will be
very close for all of the inner waters and there may end up being
a short duration of gales as the low passes by. Strong pressure
rises behind the low will cross right over Kodiak Island, leading
to a surge of west to southwest winds across the island tonight.
Winds will gradually diminish during the day Tuesday as the low
pushes onshore of eastern Prince William Sound and weakens.

The upper level pattern will amplify Tuesday through Wednesday as
a series of short-waves dig across the north-central Pacific,
causing a ridge to build up over the northeast Pacific and into
the Gulf of Alaska. There are some key model discrepancies in how
amplified the trough/ridge couplet become and where the subtropical
jet (and transport of tropical moisture) will be positioned. This
will greatly affect the forecast for Southcentral Wednesday
through Wednesday night, determining whether another round of
rain is in store. For the moment, it appears eastern Prince
William Sound and the northeast Gulf coast are the most likely
region to remain at the end of the firehouse. Stay tuned to see
if this will shift back over the remainder of Southcentral or
whether we'll see a break from the early August deluge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cloudy, wet and cool weather continues over the next few days. The
remnants of Nida will pass to the distant south today. However,
areas of rain associated with the remnants of Nida will move over
Southwest Alaska. Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula will
experience the highest 24hr rainfall totals generally ranging
between 0.25-0.50" of rain with locally higher amounts. Rainfall
amounts will be lower across the areas farther north and west
(Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley). 24hr rainfall amounts are
expected to range between 0.10-0.25" across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Kuskokwim Valley. The rain will taper off from west to east
tonight, however southwesterly flow off the Bering will still
allow for a chance of lingering showers across Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula for the rest of the forecast period. Due to the
lack of diurnal heating from the ample cloud cover, thunderstorms
are not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The pattern will begin unsettled as the post-tropical remnants of
Nida pass to the distant south today. The strongest winds
associated with these remnants will be in the coastal marine zones
south of the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Winds
will reach gale force in the aforementioned areas. These gale
force winds will then gradually ease tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds
may be locally higher along the coastline due to the localized funneling
of winds. Fair weather will then move into the region from west to
east on Tuesday, and winds will remain below gale force with no
high seas expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

The forecast period from Wednesday through Friday remains active
initially southeast of the Alaska Peninsula northeast through the
Gulf of Alaska. Another low is expected to follow a similar track
on Wednesday that the previous systems took. Models have come into
better agreement on where the center of this low will track. Most
now track the low from somewhere near/just east of Kodiak Island
north and east towards Prince William Sound with its front slowly
traversing eastward across the Gulf through Thursday. There
remains average to high confidence in gale force winds and seas 12
to 18 ft to the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday, especially in any
barrier jet that develops along the North Gulf of Alaska coast.
There also may be small craft winds through the Barren Islands on
Friday due to a tightening pressure gradient. Lastly, expect winds
less than 30 kts and seas less than 7 ft for much of the Bering
Sea through the forecast period.

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The start of the long term period will feature a positively-tilted
longwave trough positioned over the western half of the AK
mainland and eastern Bering. Both operational and ensemble
guidance suggest the trough axis will begin to advance east
through the end of the week as it also lifts and becomes less
amplified, eventually leading to a potentially drier and more
zonal flow setting up across the southern half of the state. The
deep tap of tropical moisture following the strong southwest flow
out ahead of the trough will likely be shunted east more into the
Southeast from Thursday to Friday. This should help bring an end
to the very wet pattern that will be in place for the first half
of the week. However, there would unlikely be a hard transition
back to clear and sunny weather, with cool low level temperatures
and a showery/cloudy regime lingering near the longwave trough
overhead. There is also quite a bit of spread between models for
the track of a couple smaller shortwaves that will move through
the base of the trough between the eastern Bering and towards the
Gulf from Friday to Sunday. The GFS is the most progressive with
the first of these waves, bringing it quickly into the Gulf by
Friday night. The Canadian is much slower with this system,
lagging nearly a day behind the GFS. Bottom line, expect a trend
towards a less active pattern by the end of the week with more
widely scattered/intermittent showers with passing systems.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 119 132 150 155 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS