Small Craft Advisory 602, NWS Anchorage, AK

168 
FZAK52 PAFC 041143
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-050030-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 130 nm northwest of St Paul will move to 400 nm 
northwest of St Paul at 985 mb Wed night. The low will then drift
west and start to weaken. Fri afternoon a 1002 mb low 100 nm 
south of Atka will move to 70 nm south of Nikolski Sat morning and
weaken to 1003 mb.

$$

PKZ150-050030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-050030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-050030-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-050030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-050030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-050030-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-050030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-050030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-050030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-050030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-050030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-050030-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-050030-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-050030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-050030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-050030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-050030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt diminishing to
15 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

216 
FZAK52 PAFC 042334
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051245-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 275 nm West of St Matthew Island moves to 90 nm 
Southwest of Attu at 1002 mb Fri afternoon. Its front dissipates 
over the Northern Bering Fri afternoon. A 1009 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 100 nm South of Seguam Island at 999 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051245-
Bristol Bay-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051245-
Unalaska Bay-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051245-
Adak to Kiska-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051245-
Kiska to Attu-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large scale pattern remains amplified and very slow-evolving,
with a blocking ridge strengthening over much of interior Alaska
and a closed longwave with several embedded shortwaves aimlessly
drifting out west across the western Bering. A smaller low remains
parked over the eastern Gulf, with a series of easterly waves
beginning to pinwheel around it to the north from the Yukon into
the southern Copper River Basin and Kenai Peninsula. These waves
are bringing a band of showers and cloud cover into both of said
region, with the earlier lightning activity observed on Monday
evening with this activity now absent with low level instability
dwindling for now. The rest of the southern mainland remains
clear and dry under the influence of strong high pressure and
subsidence. A frontal zone is sandwiched between the large scale
ridge and trough over the eastern Bering, with a narrow band of
clouds and rain following the front along a north-south
orientation. A new low is beginning to from along the front south
of the Aleutian Chain as an upper level shortwave approaches from
the west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement overall in the near term. There
are some slight differences in how quickly the developing low
south of the Aleutians will accelerate as it arcs across the
Bering. However, the differences across operational models are
fairly small and should not notably impact the expected conditions
for the Bering over the next couple days. There has been some
continued fluctuation on the progression of the easterly waves
over Southcentral, with newer guidance and observations now
suggesting the Alaska ridge will suppress the wave track a little
farther south and more over the northern Gulf through early
Wednesday. The main impact to the forecast will hinge on where the
northern edge of the showers and cloudiness will hinder daytime
heating today. Keying in on where the waves moving across could
trigger thunderstorm activity over parts of both Southcentral and
the Southwest will be another forecast challenge over the next
couple afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will generally persist. A
few southerly wind gusts as high as 15 to 20 kt are possible
early this morning before weakening and becoming westerly with the
sea breeze later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Tue
through Thu)...The pattern will continue to be dominated by a
vertically stacked low over the Gulf with high pressure over the
interior of AK. The net result for most of the area will be
continued warm temperatures with chances for showers and
thunderstorms, mostly along the mountains. The previously
mentioned easterly wave is making its way from McCarthy down
through the northern Gulf. It will continue to produce light to
moderate rain through that corridor through the early afternoon.
However, it now looks like the cloud shield associated with it
will be quite narrow and remain largely east of Portage. The net
effect will be more sunshine for many of the population centers
today, leading to warm temperatures and sea breezes along the
coastal sites. Another wave will slide from NE to SW through a
very similar area Tue night into Wed. This will likely produce
another round of light rain for many of the same locations.

Heading into Wednesday, the upper level low will drift further
south, leaving the door open for another warm and mostly sunny
day. The area will largely remain under weak flow aloft with no
dominant upper level feature in place. This will allow for another
round of afternoon showers to form along the mountains, with a
slight chance of some thunderstorms over the Alaska Range and
Talkeetna Mountains. By Thursday, the broad trough from the Bering
will start to slide further to the east making its approach
towards Southcentral. It will still be a dry day for nearly all
areas except for Kodiak. However, expect to see increasing clouds
by late Thursday leading to slightly cooler high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clear, warm, dry conditions continue across Southwest Alaska as
remnants of the upper level ridge persist through tonight. By
Wednesday evening, the pattern shifts as a wave of energy
extending off a Gulf low gets transported across the Alaska Range.
This wave will produce light rain showers and some thunderstorm
activity to the Alaska Range and parts of the Kuskokwim Valley,
namely from Sleetmute to McGrath. At about the same time, a front
extending of a Bering low pushes against the Southwest Coast,
bringing a round of light rain showers and increased winds to the
area. The bulk of the precipitation will likely be along the AKPen
and the higher elevations as the front weakens significantly as
it crosses onto land.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Similar pattern to what we have been seeing for the past few
days is expected through the short term, where a North Pacific
low pushes across the Eastern Aleutians and into the Bering Sea
by this afternoon. With it comes widespread small craft winds,
mostly along the eastern Bering, including the Pribilof Islands.
Areas of gales will begin to appear, first through the gaps and
passes of the southern AKPen before following along the eastern
side of the low as it traverses northwards. Additionally, a band
of moderate rain showers accompanies the front, making its way
towards the Southwest Coast, then weakening as it pushes onshore.
Areas of patchy fog are expected near the Pribilof Islands as
well as along the southern coast of Bristol Bay.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Quiet conditions are expected for much of the Bering Sea and the
Aleutian Islands to start the forecast period. A low pressure system
southwest of Dutch Harbor on Friday is expected to move northward
into the Bering through Saturday while strengthening. The worst
conditions with this low are expected to occur Saturday in the
Bering when the low will be at its strongest. This will be the
most likely time gale force winds will occur, especially through
the typical bays and passes around Dutch Harbor on Friday.
Meanwhile, expect fairly benign conditions for the Thursday
through Saturday time period in the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast period looks to feature a cloudier,
cooler, and wetter pattern as the large upper level trough over
the Bering Sea gets stretched inland over Interior Alaska. Friday
and Saturday don’t look to be as wet across Southern Alaska as
some weak upper level ridging remains in place, although, with the
ridge not that strong, there may be rain showers especially for
the higher terrain. It is not until Sunday through Monday that the
southwesterly flow aloft becomes stronger and more pronounced. As
a result, expect more widespread cloudy, cooler, and rainy
conditions for much of southern Alaska for the second half of the
forecast period. A low pressure system in the Bering Sea over the
weekend will be responsible for bringing the increase in wet
conditions for the second half of the forecast period as its front
moves inland and then multiple impulses of energy ride up along
the front with the timing and intensity of each of these waves
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 165,170,180,181,185,414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED