Small Craft Advisory 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

578 
FZAK51 PAFC 201139
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-210030-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Ridging over the Central Gulf moves to the Eastern Gulf tonight. A 
1005 mb low forms near 25 nm east of Kodiak City late Wed morning, 
then moves to near 150 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 1001 mb by late
Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-210030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-210030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-210030-
Resurrection Bay-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-210030-
Prince William Sound-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-210030-
Port Valdez-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-210030-
Valdez Narrows-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-210030-
Valdez Arm-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-210030-
Passage Canal-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-210030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-210030-
Barren Islands East-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-210030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-210030-
Chiniak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-210030-
Marmot Bay-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-210030-
Shelikof Strait-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-210030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-210030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread
rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-210030-
Kachemak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

599 
FZAK51 PAFC 202352
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211245-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Ridging over the Central Gulf moves to the Eastern Gulf by Wed 
morning. A 1007 mb low forms Wed morning 18 nm Southwest of Kodiak
City, then moves 139 NM East of Kodiak City by Thu afternoon. Its
front moves across the Gulf through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211245-
Resurrection Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211245-
Prince William Sound-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211245-
Port Valdez-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211245-
Valdez Narrows-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211245-
Valdez Arm-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211245-
Passage Canal-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211245-
Barren Islands East-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211245-
Chiniak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211245-
Marmot Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211245-
Shelikof Strait-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-211245-
Kachemak Bay-
352 PM AKDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low over the northern Bering pushes
northward towards the Bering Strait through Wednesday afternoon.
Its front pushes across the Aleutians and AKPen through tonight,
and across Southwest tomorrow afternoon, with a series of upper
level shortwaves tracking across the Bering behind it. The upper
level ridging currently dominating much of the State gets forced
to the east by the aforementioned front as it moves across
Southwest Alaska. Anticipate an active, wetter, weather pattern
to stretch across the region as fronts and waves make their way
onshore. A similar outlook is expected further east over
Southcentral once the wave breaks passed the Alaska Range,
allowing rounds of precipitation to spill into the Mat-Su Valleys,
Kenai Peninsula, and Kodiak Island, as well as extending across
the Gulf tomorrow through at least Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement through the short
term. Model discrepancies begin around the day 3 time frame,
main issues being timing. The developing system enters the Gulf
late Wednesday morning and follows an eastward track. Center
location varies across the models, with the NAM being the furthest
east and moving the quest, while the Canadian is the furthest
west and moves the slowest.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through most of
today. Light, southerly Turnagain Arm winds are expected this
evening and will relax again by early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Tuesday Night)...

Southcentral begins the process of clouding up and cooling down
today. An approaching upper level trough will make for increased
cloud cover, and the storms that form, most likely in the
mountains, will drift northward today, as opposed to previous
days. With a mix of sun and clouds, today will be another warm
day, though is not forecast to be record-breaking.

Gusty winds through Turnagain Arm are expected to redevelop this
afternoon and evening, which will be turned northward to impact
south and west Anchorage. Most areas should keep gusts at or below
30 mph. The breeze will continue along the coast through into
Tuesday.

The next front moves in from west to east on Tuesday. This will
transition Southcentral from the hazy and hot weather of the past
several days back to cloudy, rainy, and much cooler. The rain will
first move into Kodiak and Homer Tuesday morning, but spread
across the rest of the Cook Inlet region by Tuesday evening. The
wet weather will persist into Wednesday, with increasing
likelihood that shifting winds out of the southeast will lead to
some downsloping and reduced rain through Anchorage and the Mat-
Su. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to around 70 across the Cook
Inlet region, as the warmth shifts east to the Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Today is a transition day between weather regimes for Southwest
Alaska. High pressure will be moving out of the area, while a
front begins to push into Southwest AK from the Bering Sea. As
with all transitions, active weather occurs along these
boundaries. Today that takes the form of widespread thunderstorms
in the interior areas of Southwest AK. High pressure will still be
present over the interior, making for some very warm temperatures
for one more day. This heating combined with instability and
moisture from the incoming front provides an environment for a lot
of convective activity. So, expect storms to start firing this
afternoon and last until the late evening.

The front itself will bring a return to cooler, wetter conditions
as it moves in a maritime airmass. Coastal areas of southwest AK
will see this happen today, with rain and cloud cover. This front
will move inland tomorrow, but will do so slowly as high pressure
does hold it off a bit. However, by the end of Tuesday expect all
of Southwest AK to be cooler and wetter with cloud cover and light
rain. Onshore flow behind the front will keep these conditions in
place at least through the short term. Models have been
advertising both the overall transition and particulars like
thunderstorms for days now, so high confidence and little change
was made to the forecast tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak front continues to work its way slowly across the Aleutian
Islands. It is bringing rain and small craft advisory winds as it
goes. It moves ashore in Southwest Alaska overnight tonight. Behind
it, zonal flow develops and brings general westerly winds through
the Bering. Wednesday ridging builds in the Western Bering,
shifting this flow to northwest direction. Expect low stratus to
continue in the Bering, though the front moving through will
generally clear out fog that has been present lately. High
confidence and little change in the forecast tonight as models
are performing well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Weakening high pressure drifts into the Eastern Bering through
Friday. Generally light westerly winds expected. A low moves
across the Gulf of Alaska through Friday. Gusty winds less than
gale force spread to the North Gulf Coast for Friday. A gale force
barrier jet forms early Thursday along the North Gulf Coast from
Prince William Sound to Kodiak Island, diminishing Friday. seas 10
feet or less across the entire region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7:Thursday through Sunday)...

Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in excellent agreement in
the long term synoptic pattern for the region. The general
pattern will be a longwave, negatively tilted trough extending
from the Bering Strait to the Gulf of Alaska while ridging exists
over the western Bering Sea. The main anchor to the trough will be
an upper level, quasi- stationary low over the Bering Strait,
which will send shortwaves from northwestern Alaska into the Gulf.
Over the Gulf, an additional quasi-stationary low is expected to
persist while slowly moving to the southeast through the forecast
period.

Broad south to southeasterly flow over Southcentral through the
extended period will lead to generally cool, cloudy, and rainy
weather for the region. There should be some improvement in
conditions by the weekend as the primary low drifts south, but
easterly wave activity will likely lead to convection over the
interior valleys. Over Southwest Alaska, west to northwest flow
will keep things generally overcast with some rain expected as
weak upper level waves transit the mean flow. High pressure and
calmer winds over the central to western Bering will lead to the
typical low stratus along with periods of rain as waves ride over
the ridge axis.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CJ