Small Craft Advisory 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

088 
FZAK51 PAFC 091201
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100045-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A low over Southwest Alaska brings a front across the Gulf Fri 
afternoon through Sat afternoon. The 1001 mb low moves to 100 nm 
southwest of Akhiok on Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-100045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100045-
Resurrection Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming S wind 20 kt. Seas 2
ft early building to 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100045-
Prince William Sound-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100045-
Port Valdez-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100045-
Valdez Narrows-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100045-
Valdez Arm-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt...except SE near the Sound. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100045-
Passage Canal-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100045-
Barren Islands East-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100045-
Chiniak Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100045-
Marmot Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100045-
Shelikof Strait-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-100045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-100045-
Kachemak Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming SE wind 20 kt. Gusts
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

592 
FZAK51 PAFC 092350
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101230-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A low over Southwest Alaska brings a front across the Gulf this 
afternoon through Sat. The 998 mb low center supporting this front
moves from Southwest Alaska to 50 nm south of Kodiak Island on 
Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-101230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101230-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101230-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101230-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101230-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt overnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101230-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101230-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101230-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101230-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101230-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101230-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt shifting to NE after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101230-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Large, broad longwave trough pattern continues over the next
couple days. The trough axis is currently located over Cook Inlet
and is slowly drifting eastward. Southerly flow ahead of the
trough axis is feeding a band moisture northwards over eastern
Kenai, Prince William Sound, Anchorage Hillside and up through
the Mat Valley. There is a fair amount of instability over the
Gulf Thursday/Friday due in-part to a temperature difference of
around 12C between the sea surface and 850 mb, creating convective
conditions. A ridge in the western Bering is forced eastward by a
low west of the Aleutians. Simultaneously, a much stronger arctic
low is pulled south across Southwest Alaska towards Kodiak Island
through early Saturday morning, inevitably cutting off the ridge
and flattening it out.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement for the short term.
They are struggling with a low entering the western Bering late
tonight, mainly at the surface. The upper levels are in better
agreement in comparison, but still have minor discrepancies. The
NAM/Canadian seem to be in the best agreement at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist, ceilings may stagger between
4000-5000ft at times. Light winds throughout much of today before
gusty south-southeasterly winds return this evening. Periods of
light rain showers are possible throughout the day as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Thu
through Sat)...

More showers and cool temperatures are in store for the area. The
broad upper level trough that has been in place for the past
several days remains parked over the area. This will continue to
make for abundant cloud cover and widespread rain showers. The
rain showers should once again be the most prolific from the
Northern Kenai Peninsula up through the Chugach and into the
Matanuska Valley. The showers are also likely to be heaviest
during the afternoon as they tap into some instability. Colder air
aloft (-27C at 500mb/18,000' on the 12z Anchorage sounding) is
helping to fuel some decent lapse rates which helps to contribute
to these heavier showers.

There will be a brief lull in the action tonight. The upper level
low will drift just far enough east and weaken to allow most
inland locations to see some drier conditions. However, the next
system is much stronger and immediately on its heels. This system
is rather unique, especially for early July. It is diving down
from Siberia and is loaded with some very warm low level
temperatures (850mb/5,000' at 15C). It is also bringing an
impressive slug of moisture along with it. This system will plow
through the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges midday Friday. Steady moderate
to heavy rain will start first over Kodiak and the southern coast
of the Kenai Peninsula. The other big story with this system will
be increasing gap winds. A coastal ridge combined with the
incoming system will lead to increase SE to NW pressure gradient.
Thus, expect the Knik and Copper River Valleys to see gusty
conditions develop as well as along the Turnagain Arm. The silver
lining is that these gusty winds should also keep most of the
heavy precipitation over the Gulf Coast as the mountains help to
provide some downslope drying.

Saturday will represent a slow transition towards drier
conditions. The upper level low will park over the NE Gulf and
slowly weaken. This will keep clouds over much of the area, but
any steady rain will be primarily confined to Prince William Sound
and the Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A potent upper shortwave is currently bringing localized heavier
showers across the Kuskokwim Delta. These will move southward and
weaken through the morning. After a brief lull this afternoon, a
deeper, more broad low will track over Norton Sound by evening.
As such, moderate rain will overspread the entire region by
Friday morning, ending from north to south through the day under
the weakening low. With PWATs up to 1.15", rainfall totals of an
inch remain likely, particularly near the coast. Given the overall
pattern, temperatures will remain below average (in the 50s)
through Friday. As the low departs into the Gulf on Saturday,
partial clearing will occur as weak high pressure develops over
the eastern Bering. Consequently, temperatures will return to
near or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A weakening trough will move southward over the eastern Aleutians
this morning, leading to scattered showers into the early
afternoon. A front will track across the western Bering this
evening into Friday morning but will likely fall apart before
reaching Unalaska. Benign conditions with the usual low stratus
are generally expected between these two features through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period across the Bering Sea. A low over the
central Gulf has the potential to produce 35 kt northeasterly
winds from Sunday morning along the North Gulf Coast through
Monday morning over the open waters of the western Gulf.
However, this is still low confidence as there is significant
model disagreement on the depth of the low and resultant
strength of winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

Long-term models share a very similar tracking of the low over the
eastern Gulf of Alaska Sunday through Monday. There will be a
fairly narrow band of stronger winds (small craft advisory to
gale force) over the northern to western Gulf on Sunday, then
weakening Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, the low will be slow
to move, largely remaining in place over the southern Gulf with a
just a weak southward drift. As a result, rain along the Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound should gradually dissipate by
Monday as the rain shield sinks southward. Inland areas of
Southcentral will be dry with warming temperatures under the
influence of weak offshore flow. Uncertainty increases Tuesday
through Wednesday with the position of the low, which remains over
the Gulf, and a ridge attempting to build in from the north and
west. Southcentral will be right on the periphery of both of
these, so depending on which winds out it could be warm and
mostly sunny or cloudy with showers. Southwest Alaska will be more
solidly under the influence of the upper ridge, with a higher
likelihood of warmer and drier conditions.

Meanwhile, conditions look benign across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, with an upper level cut-off low sitting over the Bering
and some weak lows transiting the periphery of the forecast area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW/CB