Small Craft Advisory 493, NWS Anchorage, AK

460 
FZAK51 PAFC 211203
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220045-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 mb low 100 nm east of Kodiak City on Mon weakens and 
remains nearly stationary at 1012 mb then dissipates Tue morning. 
Its front lingers along the North Gulf Coast through Tue 
afternoon. A 983 mb low moves to 240 nm south of Akhiok on Wed. 
Its front enters the southern Gulf Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-220045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220045-
Resurrection Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220045-
Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220045-
Port Valdez-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220045-
Valdez Narrows-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220045-
Valdez Arm-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220045-
Passage Canal-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220045-
Barren Islands East-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220045-
Chiniak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220045-
Marmot Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220045-
Shelikof Strait-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220045-
Kachemak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

854 
FZAK51 PAFC 212353
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221315-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 mb low 100 nm east of Kodiak City on Mon weakens and 
remains nearly stationary at 1012 mb then dissipates Tue morning. 
Its front persists along the north Gulf Coast through Tue afternoon.
A 983 mb low moves to 240 nm south of Akhiok on Wed. Its front 
enters the southern Gulf Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ119-221315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221315-
Resurrection Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221315-
Prince William Sound-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221315-
Port Valdez-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221315-
Valdez Narrows-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221315-
Valdez Arm-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221315-
Passage Canal-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221315-
Barren Islands East-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221315-
Chiniak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221315-
Marmot Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221315-
Shelikof Strait-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221315-
Kachemak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 AM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A currently low south of Kodiak Island pushes across the Gulf
through mid-week, losing much of its surface reflection once it
moves onshore over Southeast Alaska. A second, unseasonably
strong, vertically stacked low west of Shemya moves just south of
the Western Aleutian islands over the next few days. The
associated front pushes across the Bering, with a couple of weaker
surface lows developing within the frontal system. A series of
shortwaves will make their way across the Southern Mainland behind
the front as well, and although there is some mild model
inconsistencies with respect to timing, these shortwaves are
reflected across all guidance. By mid-week, another vertically
stacked low develops within the front south of Kodiak Island. This
system will be the main weather driver for the second half of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement over the next few
days. The main struggle is with the smaller surface low looking
to develop within a frontal system set to track across the Bering
over through mid-week. Additionally, there is some inconsistency
across the models with respect to the upper level short-waves
extending off of the lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The chance for
light rain as well as cloud ceilings lowering to near 5000 feet
increases in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Today will look and feel more like autumn than summer across much
of Southcentral as a strong frontal system moves north from the
Gulf of Alaska. Rain that is already falling from the southern
half of the Kenai Peninsula to Prince William Sound this morning
will spread north through the day, reaching the northern half of
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin by afternoon. Rain will also
spread across the Anchorage Bowl this morning, aided by an upper-
level wave out ahead of the surface front. Upper-level diffluence
and atmospheric lift from this feature will help fill in
precipitation along the lee of the Chugach Mountains through early
afternoon. There is also not a strong cross barrier flow with
this system, as the orientation of the front and track of the low
is lending more to an east-northeasterly flow at 850mb. Thus, the
wind field is lacking any strong downslope component to cutoff
precipitation entirely from Kenai to Anchorage and Palmer. The
bulk of the precipitation, though, will still fall along the
immediate coast through Monday.

Gusty gap winds will also increase this morning as a coastal ridge
builds out ahead of the front. The pressure gradient will lend to
the development of southerly winds for the Copper River Basin. An
increase in the Knik River Valley wind is also expected, but
should not be that strong. The Turnagain Arm wind is expected to
bend down the inlet for the most part due to lower pressure in the
Gulf. However, with a strong thermal trough in the interior of
the state, winds may fan out across the arm with a light
southeasterly wind bending over the western half of Anchorage,
especially as the low starts to move northeast and weaken by
Monday morning.

By early Monday, precipitation will taper off to scattered
showers from Cook Inlet to the Susitna Valley as the low and
associated upper-level wave move toward the Copper River Delta.
Rain will continue across Prince William Sound and portions of the
Copper River Basin through the late afternoon hours as the system
moves inland.

Tuesday should be a warmer and drier day as clouds depart with
some showers possible over the higher terrain during the
afternoon and evening hours. Clouds and shower activity along the
coast look to increase again late Tuesday as an upper-level wave
and associated surface trough lift to the northern Gulf. Another
strong storm system is on track to move toward Kodiak Island by
Wednesday morning with a gale-force, or potential storm-force,
front lifting into the northern and western Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of upper level waves will move northwestward across
Southwest Alaska over the next 3 days. These upper level waves
will allow for more clouds than sun, cooler temperatures, higher
relative humidity and a greater chance of precipitation.
Thunderstorms are unlikely during this time across Southwest
Alaska as cloud cover combined with weak onshore flow at the
surface will allow for more atmospheric stability. Forecast
confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled but benign weather is expected to continue across the
Bering/Aleutians over the next 3 days as a low pressure system
moves eastward along the Aleutian chain. Gale force winds across
the western Bering this morning will diminish to below gale force
this afternoon and evening. Other than the aforementioned initial
period, no additional gale force winds are expected. Rain and
showers will continue across the Aleutians as this low continues
eastward. No high seas are expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

An active weather pattern is expected as a Western Aleutian low
merges with a North Pacific low south of the Aleutians on
Wednesday. This low then moves to the Southern Bering for
Thursday. The storm to keep an eye on is the one moving up from
the Pacific during the day Wednesday. There remains high
uncertainty in the track of this low. It could end up anywhere
from the western Gulf/Kodiak to the southern Alaska Peninsula. On
the other hand, everything is pointing toward an unseasonably
deep low. Thus, widespread gale force winds are likely along the
path of this storm. At this point, the most likely areas to see
gales are the northern to western Gulf coast and Kodiak Island
waters as well as along the Alaska Peninsula. There is an outside
chance of some localized storm force winds through channeled
areas. Gale force northerlies are also possible on the back side
of the merging lows on Thursday, primarily over the central Bering
down to the Aleutians. More likely though, most areas will max
out at small craft advisory level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A strong upper level jet stretching across the North Pacific will
lead to a broad 500 mb circulation centered south of the Aleutians
on Wednesday. The deterministic GFS shows the strongest associated
surface low at approximately 970 mb tracking into the western
Gulf by Wednesday afternoon. Although other models/ensembles are
slightly weaker, the overall outcome would be the same given a
large high pressure system in the east-central Pacific leading to
a long southerly fetch of moisture advecting into the Gulf between
these two features. As such, locally heavy rain is possible
Wednesday into Thursday across Kodiak Island and the southern
Gulf. Given the position of the aforementioned high pressure,
winds look to be oriented more easterly (would be more southerly
if the high were centered farther north and slightly west). Thus
Seward and areas over the western Kenai would be downsloped and
see lower total rainfall. Still, conditions will be quiet wet
along the Gulf coast/Prince William Sound, with some light rain
occasionally spreading inland across southern Alaska. Overall,
this is a cloudy and cool pattern for much of the area.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale: 119 120 131 138 411
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL/KZ