Small Craft Advisory 406, NWS Anchorage, AK

016 
FZAK52 PAFC 211124
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220000-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low 100 nm southeast of Sand Point moves into the 
western Gulf Fri afternoon. A front over the western Aleutians Fri
afternoon moves over the central Aleutians Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-220000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt, diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220000-
Bristol Bay-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220000-
Unalaska Bay-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220000-
Adak to Kiska-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220000-
Kiska to Attu-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-220000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 AM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

411 
FZAK52 PAFC 212348
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221315-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 350 nm Northwest of Attu merges with a 999 mb low 
450 nm South of Kiska to form a 984 mb 40 nm North of Amchitka Sat
night. The low shifts to 80 nm Southwest of Atka at 985 mb for 
Sun afternoon. Its front wraps over the Bering and Eastern 
Aleutians by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Variable wind 10 kt in the
morning. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable
wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221315-
Bristol Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221315-
Unalaska Bay-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221315-
Adak to Kiska-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side... 15 ft Pacific
side.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221315-
Kiska to Attu-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-221315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 PM AKDT Fri May 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Thu May 20 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A very strong upper level low is currently spinning across the
North Pacific with its associated surface low just to its
northwest. While not quite vertically stacked it is close. One
other thing of note is how expansive the circulation with this low
pressure system is and for the time of year in it being mid-late
May. The circulation extends from the central Bering up to Hooper
Bay, along our border with Fairbanks, south to almost Southeast
Alaska, and down to 40N latitude in the North Pacific. This low is
bringing widespread unsettled weather from gale force winds with
the front moving north through the Gulf of Alaska with storm
force gusts currently occurring at Amatuli Island this morning.
There are also gale force winds occurring on the backside of the
low in a corridor from west of Dutch Harbor to just east of Atka.
Most areas are seeing all rain with this system with any snow
occurring at the highest elevations.

From Adak Station on west to Shemya, an upper level ridge is in
place keeping weather conditions benign. Another frontal system is
moving into the western Bering well north of the Aleutian Chain
producing a small area of small craft winds in the western Bering
this morning. This is in association with a piece of upper level
energy moving east from Siberia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features out through Day 3. For the most part, forecast is largely
on track this morning for this widespread extensive low pressure
system impacting much of the AOR (area of responsibility) this
morning. The only change to the forecast was to bring down the max
temperatures some this forecast package for Southcentral due to
the expansive cloud cover, though, they weren't lowered too much
as there will be a component of some downslope warming. Out west,
not much change made this forecast update.

However, the fly in the ointment remains this rather strong piece
of upper level energy that will move from Siberia to the northern
Bering this evening. Models have come into better agreement on
this feature remaining separate and not merging with any other
piece of energy at least through Friday morning. After Friday
morning, the EC continues to remain the only model that does not
phase this piece of energy at least not until Friday night when it
begins to phase at least some of the energy downstream with an
upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS and Canadian-NH
are actually the two that are similar to each other this morning
in that they try and begin to phase the energy earlier during
Friday afternoon. The NAM is the furthest south with this energy
and begins to stretch the energy out Friday morning. Exactly how
this piece of energy moves across Alaska and whether or not it
phases will determine the exact sensible weather that will occur.
Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF package.
However, occasionally ceilings may lower below 5000' this morning.
Winds are expected to remain light and northerly through the
morning hours as the Turnagain Arm wind bends down the Inlet.
However, for about an approximately 6 hour period this afternoon,
some aspect of the Turnagain Arm wind may come back into the
terminal before becoming westerly this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

A large area of low pressure continues to sit in the North
Pacific, just south of the Eastern Aleutians. This system is
pushing rounds of weather north into South Central AK. This is
providing sustained cool and cloudy conditions for all of the
forecast area. As with many of these systems, a barrier jet setup
is in place along the coast, with winds being funneled through
gaps and passes in coastal areas. The Chugach Mountains are
continuing to prevent most of the moisture from moving inland.
However, enough moisture has been able to slop over the mountains
to create some light rain showers in the Susitna Valley and
Anchorage Bowl.

These conditions will maintain until Saturday, when the low
finally begins to track east across the Gulf of Alaska. The low
will pick up pace as it goes, which will rapidly diminish winds
along the coast and improve the weather. So, expect more of the
same tomorrow with quickly improving conditions late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low south of the Alaska Peninsula will continue to bring
rainfall across Southwest Alaska through Friday. Additionally,
gusty easterly winds will continue across the Alaska Peninsula and
up into the Bristol Bay interior before diminishing Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low southeast of the Eastern Aleutians will bring continued
rainfall and gusty northerly winds to the Central and Eastern
Aleutians. Friday, conditions will clear and winds will calm as an
upper level ridge moves over the area. Also Friday, a front looks
to move over the Western Aleutians, bringing gusty southerly
winds and rainfall to the region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

The weak low pressure system in the western Gulf Friday night is
expected to gradually move east through the weekend, however
whether the strength of this system remains steady or weakens
remains in question. Thus, there is a chance winds will hold on
along the north Gulf coast during the day Saturday, but for now
will stick with the more likely weaker wind forecast.

There is much better agreement on the next Pacific low tracking
to the Aleutians Saturday and remaining there through Sunday, with
an associated front spreading north and east across the Bering
Sea. There is still some question of strength, with small craft
winds likely and a chance of gale force winds ahead of the front.
This would most likely occur over the central Aleutians and
central Bering Sea.

&&

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Showers along the mainland coast will shift to the east Sunday,
as ridging begins to build back across the mainland of Alaska.
Sunday and Monday should see skies begin to clear out with
temperatures rebounding from the cooler end of week values. Inland
areas in the Mat-Su and Cooper Valley will soar into the upper
60s and flirt with low 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Anchorage will
be slightly behind, with highs reaching at least the mid 60s
through that time. Mid week, a front will move up through Kodiak,
bringing rain back to coastal regions as well as clouds and
cooler conditions inland.

Southwest Alaska will have a shorter window of nice weather.
Sunday and early Monday should see quite nice conditions of warmth
and sunshine as ridging overhead moves east. Tuesday, a low
pressure system will slingshot a front across the Aleutians and
across the western coast, when rain and clouds will begin to
prevail.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 138
Gale Warning 351 352 170 173 174 119 120 139 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BJB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...NR/SS