Small Craft Advisory 369, NWS Anchorage, AK

018 
FZAK52 PAFC 071201
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080045-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

There is a  987 mb low 70 nm south of Adak Fri morning and then 
moves to 150 nm southeast of Atka at 990 mb Fri afternoon. This 
low will continue to weaken rapidly. A second low of 991 mb will 
be over King Cove Fri afternoon. Sat morning the 
second low weaken to 993 mb and be located at 100 NM north of
Dutch Harbor.

$$

PKZ150-080045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080045-
Bristol Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-080045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080045-
Unalaska Bay-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ172-080045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080045-
Adak to Kiska-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080045-
Kiska to Attu-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

775 
FZAK52 PAFC 080003
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081300-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A complex 991 mb low 50 nm southeast of Cold Bay moves to 113 nm
northeast of Atka at 996 mb Sat evening and then continues to 100
nm northwest of Dutch Harbor at 1001 mb Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-081300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081300-
Bristol Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081300-
Unalaska Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081300-
Adak to Kiska-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081300-
Kiska to Attu-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
403 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

438 
FZAK52 PAFC 081200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090030-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 70 nm north of Dutch Harbor moves to 130 nm 
northeast of Atka at 997 mb Sat evening and then continues to 65
nm east of Atka at 998 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-090030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090030-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090030-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090030-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090030-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

736 
FZAK52 PAFC 082352
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091300-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 170 nm north of Seguam Island moves to 60 nm 
southwest of Sand Point at 1010 mb by Mon afternoon. Its front 
moves into western Alaska Sun afternoon. A 998 mb low 280 nm south
of Dutch Harbor moves to 115 nm south of St. Matthew Island at 
1008 mb Mon afternoon. Its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula into 
the Gulf of Alaska through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091300-
Bristol Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091300-
Unalaska Bay-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091300-
Adak to Kiska-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091300-
Kiska to Attu-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 PM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a negatively tilted trough over the the Gulf, with an
upper-level low south of the Alaska Peninsula and an upper-level
wave extending across the Gulf to Kodiak Island. At the surface, a
weak trough sits over Southcentral with clouds overspreading much
of this region keeping overnight low temperatures a few degrees
warmer than they were this time yesterday morning. A few widely
scattered showers are showing up on radar this morning both over
the interior of Southcentral and over the northeastern Gulf. The
cloud cover and precipitation are both slowly moving westward in
conjunction with the upper-level wave.

Farther west, a ridge parked over the AKPEN and extending into
Southwest Alaska is keeping conditions clean and dry with an
offshore flow. A few clouds are spilling into the Kuskokwim Valley
due to the aforementioned upper-level wave. The low clouds over
the Kuskokwim Delta yesterday continues to erode as the cloud
shield lifts north in response to the building ridge.

The active weather remains over the eastern half of the Aleutians
and southern Bering this morning, as a gale-force low spins
northwest of Nikolski. This system is pushing a front over the
western AKPEN this morning with widespread rain and gusty
southeasterly winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast confidence has waned a bit overnight as models are now
struggling with the evolution of the negatively tilted trough
over the Gulf as it lifts northeast Friday. The differences in the
00z runs were stark, with the NAM keeping the wave over Kodiak
Island from fully phasing with the larger upper-level low along
the Alaska Peninsula. This resulted in the first wave moving more
northward and across Southcentral faster than other solutions.
The GFS and GEM both kept some semblance of phasing as the entire
trough lifted northeast; however, there were distinct differences
in timing, strength, and placement of the trough inland on
Friday. The EC was similar to the GFS and GEM, but faster, just
behind the NAM. Thus, the NAM looked very much the outlier.

With the 06z runs, the NAM continued the trend of keeping both
features separate. The NAM also has a slightly stronger upper-
level wave moving north over Southcentral for Friday. The GFS has
now trended to the NAM, albeit not quite as strong and not as fast
with the aforementioned wave. However, it is also foregoing an
attempt to phase both systems. Given these solutions, it looks
more likely for widespread rain, especially for the western half
of Southcentral, for Friday.

There is also better agreement between the latest NAM and GFS runs
concerning the movement of a frontal system toward Kodiak Island
for late Fri into Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
evening hours. Ceilings below 5,000 ft with light rain are then
expected by late evening, continuing through early morning Friday.
An increase in southerly winds with gusts near 20 kts are also
expected beginning late Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

Weak cyclonic flow aloft will persist across Southcentral Alaska
today ahead of a closed low near Kodiak Island and another much
larger and deeper low moving into the southeastern Gulf of
Alaska. This will keep some mid high clouds overhead along with a
few very light transiting showers. Moisture will stream
northwestward from the southeastern Gulf low this afternoon and
evening, right ahead of the Kodiak low and trough which begins a
northward progression. The associated vorticity maximum looks
relatively concentric, which will help focus upward vertical
motion. Therefore, expect steady rain to develop this evening over
Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula, then spread
northward to Anchorage and the Mat-Su tonight through Friday
morning. The upper low and trough will then exit to the Alaska
Interior Friday afternoon, with just a few light showers lingering
behind it. While the day will start out rain cloudy and rainy,
expect decreasing clouds and quite a bit of sunshine Friday
afternoon and evening, leaving plenty of time for temperatures to
warm up.

Meanwhile, a digging trough over the north-central Pacific, will
lead to cyclogenesis south of the Alaska Peninsula tonight. This
will send an east-west oriented occluding front northward toward
Kodiak Island on Friday, with rain and stronger winds developing
Friday afternoon and evening. With low level easterly flow, the
heaviest rain will be along the east side of the island, with much
drier conditions along the the west side. This front looks like it
will dissipate as it continues northward Friday night and Saturday
due to a stalling upper trough. THus, not sure whether rain will
reach the north Gulf coast. There is a better chance of rain
coming from upper level waves tracking from western Canada toward
Southcentral on Saturday. Forecast confidence in the track of
fairly diffuse upper level energy is low. The best chance of
rain for Saturday/Saturday night looks to be along the Gulf
coast/Prince William Sound as well as across the Copper River
Basin. Dry conditions will likely hold in elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A fairly quiet pattern will continue across Southwest Alaska over
the next 3 days. Showers will move across the Kuskokwim Valley
this afternoon as a wave of upper level energy moves through.
Upper level ridging will move over most of Southwest Alaska on
Saturday making for fair skies and weakening winds. However, for
the Alaska Peninsula, the chance of showers lingers on Saturday as
a wave of upper level energy moves through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Low pressure over the central Bering/Aleutians will continue to
weaken and broaden today. This will allow for Gale force
southeasterly winds in the eastern Bering/Aleutians to ease to
below Gale force this afternoon. The low will linger over the
central Aleutians through Saturday, though this low will continue
weakening. This low will bring continuous rain and showers to the
Aleutians through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

A broad area of low pressure will maintain winds less than 35 kts
and seas less than 20 ft over the Bering and the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

Long Term Forecast (Days 3 through 7: Sat through Wed)...

The latest model solutions are in decent agreement overall with
the synoptic pattern taking shape for the weekend, but begin to
diverge significantly for Monday through Wednesday. There is
moderate confidence that an elongated trough encompassing the
entire Bering Sea will eject multiple shortwaves with associated
surface lows, thereby maintaining a wet and showery pattern along
the Aleutians and the Pribilofs through Monday. The bulk of the
rain showers seem to be poised over the Eastern Aleutians with a
deep fetch of tropical moisture combined and orographic lift that
will enhance rainfall along the Alaska Peninsula. Where models
begin to diverge and therefore increase uncertainty is the
breakdown of the aforementioned Bering trough and subsequent
shortwaves and surface lows will bring the the next chance of rain
and strong winds through the terrain gaps and passes. Some
uncertainty also exists with precipitation timing and duration
with future model runs needed to iron out specific details.
Suffice to say that unsettled weather will be the theme over the
Bering and Aleutians with little break in between.

Meanwhile, a North Pacific low and associated front will move
toward the Gulf with widespread rain over Kodiak Island for the
weekend through Monday, spreading further northward across the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the north Gulf coast areas. Models
diverge late Monday night through Wednesday on the next advertised
low with the precipitation timing and duration in the
aforementioned areas. A few isolated showers are possible further
inland as well as near surrounding terrain, with remaining mostly
dry conditions over Anchorage Bowl and the Mat-SU Valleys with the
downsloped easterly flow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 152.
		 Flood Watch 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 170 179 412-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF