Small Craft Advisory 350, NWS Anchorage, AK

311 
FZAK51 PAFC 301152
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010045-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK 
INLET...A 999 mb low 20 nm southeast of Seward moves to 100 nm east 
of Middleton Island at 1004 mb by Fri night. A front enters the 
western Gulf of Alaska Sat afternoon, then moves northeastward across
the Gulf through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-010045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt...becoming variable wind 15 kt N of Middleton
Island in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW wind 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010045-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5
ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010045-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming NW wind 20 kt. Seas
building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010045-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010045-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010045-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010045-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010045-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010045-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010045-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010045-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of western bays and passes
through the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010045-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near the Inlet diminishing
through the afternoon. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon...highest near the Inlet.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

928 
FZAK51 PAFC 010035
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011345-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low 25 nm Northwest of Middleton Island dissipates in 
the Eastern Gulf Sun morning. A 1000 mb North Pacific low Sun 
morning moves to 220 nm Southeast of Sitkinak at 998 mb Sun 
afternoon. Its front extends along the Southern Gulf through Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 4 
ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011345-
Resurrection Bay-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011345-
Prince William Sound-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011345-
Port Valdez-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10
kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011345-
Valdez Narrows-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming NE. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011345-
Valdez Arm-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011345-
Passage Canal-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011345-
Barren Islands East-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011345-
Chiniak Bay-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011345-
Marmot Bay-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011345-
Shelikof Strait-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011345-
Kachemak Bay-
435 PM AKDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt.. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A steepening mid-upper level trough from a stacked low east of
Kotzebue Sound extends southwestward through Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay. Light snow continues over the west flank of the
trough axis but east of Norton Sound into early this morning. A
regressed upper ridge over Southcentral lies in the path of the
upper trough, which will gradually recede eastward allowing the
shortwave to dive more southeastward across AKPEN and Alaska
Range today.

Over the Bering, a stacked low to the south of the western
Aleutians brings gusty southeasterlies across Shemya, with only
minimal to absolute no wind effects over the Aleutians today. A
ridge north of the low runs southeastward into the North Pacific,
leading an extensive area of low marine stratus and fog to remain
over much of the Bering including the Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement on the large scale pattern through
at least Saturday afternoon. GFS, GEM and ECM synoptic features
stays really close to each other after Saturday afternoon unlike
NAM which becomes a bit more aggressive as it takes off Saturday
night. The former extra-tropical Typhoon Surigae will continue to
thrive as it moves east across the south of the Aleutians into the
Gulf of Alaska by Sunday night. A new low developed over the
eastern Bering, north of former Surigae on Sunday morning could
cause an uptick in seas and winds especially near Pribilof Islands
and central Aleutians through Monday afternoon. The former Surigae
has a lot of uncertainties of where it would end up after Monday.
This system could either bring increased moisture, clouds and
rain over Prince William Sound (PWS) in the new week, but stay
tuned as to whether the models would keep the low farther south of
the Gulf or near PWS in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Anticipate VFR-MVFR conditions and the potential for light
showers as a result of the expected frontal boundary from the northwest
through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...

After several days of abundant sunshine and dry conditions across
Southcentral, today will see a big shift in the pattern. A front
from the northern Gulf will continue to lift north across the
Kenai Peninsula through the day. Rain showers have already spread
into Whittier and Soldotna this morning. This front will continue
to advect moisture across the area through the day. By this
afternoon, a potent upper level wave will swing from west to east
across the AK Range. This feature will provide the lift to take
advantage of the moisture allowing for precipitation to become
more widespread and steady. Overnight, there were a couple of
changes with this set-up that resulted in some forecast updates.
The entire system appears a bit stronger and faster. That means
that precipitation should start earlier than previously thought,
with likely PoPs over much of the area by late this afternoon.

Precipitation type remains challenging with this forecast. Due to
the faster nature of the system overall, this means that most of
the precipitation will likely fall before the colder air arrives.
Thus, it still looks like mostly rain for the lower
elevations/population centers. There still appears to be a decent
chance for more snow to mix in at higher elevations, to include
the Anchorage Hillside. With warm surface temperatures after the
past several days of above normal conditions, there looks to be
very little chance of accumulation. Also, the QPF with this system
is on the low-end, so any precipitation that does fall will be
light.

As the system exits through the Copper River Basin on Fri, it will
leave decent cold air advection in its wake. This will lead to
some gusty outflow winds through the Barren Islands, Southern Cook
Inlet, Seward, Whittier, and the other typical gaps. It will also
bring a chill to the air that we have not seen the likes of for
several weeks. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to climb
out of the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday
through Saturday)..

Mostly quiet and cool weather is expected across Southwest through
the start of the weekend. A shortwave trough and cold front
dropping south from the Seward Peninsula this morning will bring
cool temperatures and a chance for rain near the western Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges. Cold air streaming south over the now more open
water is bringing some low stratus to the Kuskokwim Delta and
AKPen. Skies should begin to clear this evening after frontal
passage, leading to below average morning lows across the region.
Temperatures on Friday should be similar to those on Thursday as
cold air advection from the north limits the effect of diurnal
heating. On Saturday, winds will shift back to the south, which
will increase cloud cover and temperatures as a ridge builds over
the Interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

An occluded low will continue to move east through Saturday while
remaining south of the Aleutian Chain. This will bring rain
showers to the Chain through the forecast period. High pressure
over the Bering today will continue to produce low stratus and
patchy fog from the Pribilofs to Dutch Harbor. Temperatures will
remain below average as the low to the south of the Aleutian Chain
continues to pull in cool air from the north.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Winds and waves are expected to remain below 35 kts and 20 ft,
respectively through late Sunday. By Sunday night, there is
increasing confidence of the development of northerly gales
across the central Bering in response to a developing area of low
pressure. This area of gales is expected to move south across the
eastern Aleutians for Monday.

For the Gulf, low pressure entering the Gulf Sunday will increase
easterly winds. Currently, a wide area of sub-gales from the
northern Gulf to the Barren Islands is expected. There is some
potential for a smaller area of gales to develop across the
northern and eastern Gulf by Monday morning.

&&

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The extended period features a broad upper level trough in place
over the Bering and western mainland while a strong ridge of high
pressure is centered over Siberia. A low over the eastern Bering
will approach the Southwest coast Sunday before retrograding
westward Monday. This will bring rain and snow to higher
elevations across Southwest Alaska and the northern Alaska
Peninsula for the start of next week. Currently the GFS solution
advertises a slightly different picture with a second low spinning
up in the Gulf of Alaska, which would bring increasing chances for
precipitation across Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast
Monday. The key difference in each solution is the orientation and
strength of an upper level ridge extending over the Alaska-Yukon
border on Monday. Currently the GFS depicts a weaker ridge, thus
allowing the second low to develop over the Gulf, while the EC
maintains a strong ridge that extends farther westward. By Tuesday,
an organized low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing rain
and wind as the leading front extends into the central Bering by
Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO