Small Craft Advisory 329, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 22, 2021, 3:18 AM AKDT (11:18 UTC)

Expired

Apr 22, 2021, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

276 
FZAK51 PAFC 221118
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230000-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves across the Gulf through Fri afternoon. A weak low 
center forms within the front Thu morning and dissipates by Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-230000-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230000-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230000-
Resurrection Bay-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230000-
Prince William Sound-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230000-
Port Valdez-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230000-
Valdez Narrows-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230000-
Valdez Arm-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230000-
Passage Canal-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH ON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230000-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230000-
Barren Islands East-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230000-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230000-
Chiniak Bay-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230000-
Marmot Bay-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230000-
Shelikof Strait-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230000-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230000-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230000-
Kachemak Bay-
318 AM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 21, 4:12 PM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Wed Apr 21 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The overall weather pattern remains mainly unchanged. A blocking
ridge remains firmly placed over the state of Alaska. South along
the Aleutian Chain is an area of low pressure that is unable to
advance any farther north and east. A strong pacific jet is
wrapping around this low, shooting dramatically northwest across
Kodiak and Bristol Bay. Relatively heavy showers are noted from
Kodiak to King Salmon this afternoon, as an incredibly moist
tongue of moisture is being tapped from deep in the Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The synoptic picture is being handled exceptionally by all models
through the mid term. High pressure is kept locked over the state
through the weekend. Models are with in a good window of
similarity in moving the next north pacific low across the central
Aleutians this weekend. Spread amongst the primary models is
roughly 400 miles from where the Nam has the low placed near St.
Paul, to the GFS where the low is south of Dutch. The Canadian and
European models line up closer to ensemble guidance and it
effectively splits the difference between the American models. The
biggest difference in weather is for the crabbing fleet having to
deal with only a short period of southeasterly winds before they
become northerly again. Model spread starts to really become
apparent into the middle of next week as a strong shortwave is
expected to drop out of the high arctic.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
very small chance that some southeast winds could creep into the
terminal this evening, but the odds are very low and winds would
not be much more than 10 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly benign weather is expected for much of Southcentral for the
forecast period with loads of sunshine. Temperatures each day will
be in the 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 20s in the
typical colder spots and low 30s to near freezing for Anchorage
and the Palmer area. With the higher sun angle this time of year
and weak synoptic flow aloft, sea breezes are in full effect for
the Seward and Valdez areas with south to southwesterly winds
occurring. This is expected to continue through the evening hours
before the land breeze takes over and winds turn around back to
the north or go calm. Synoptic flow aloft begins to increase some
heading into Friday and Saturday with the potential for the sea
breezes to be mitigated but this will be watched closely. For now,
went with the sea breezes for this forecast package. One other
thing to note is the frontal boundary to the south of the area
that may spread some high clouds as far north as the Matanuska
Valley and Anchorage Bowl Thursday night into Friday morning that
may keep temperatures slightly warmer than tonight.

Lastly, periods of rain with an additional 2 to 2.5 inches of rain
is expected for Kodiak City through tomorrow evening as the front
continues to impact the area. Friday night through Saturday, the
ridge to the north will push the front south causing it to
dissipate as the upper level energy shears apart causing clearing
skies for the southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday)...

Satellite shows a low pressure center south of Cold Bay with
moisture pumping up from the south across the AKPEN into Bristol
Bay. This is bringing a frontal system with an increase of clouds
across Southwest Alaska with areas of light rain developing this
afternoon through tonight. As we head into Thursday areas of
showers are possible with best chances across the Kilbuck
mountains and northern parts of the AKPEN. Gusty winds will
continue tonight and weaken on Thursday as the front weakens.
Friday and Saturday will dry out with the warmer temperatures
continuing with highs in the 40s and 50s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday)...

The main weather maker through Friday will be the low pressure
system south of Cold Bay with a front pumping moisture into the
Bering. This system will continue to bring Gale force winds
across the eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians through Thursday
morning and then winds weakening as the low pressure system
weakens. Rain will spread across the Pribilofs into the central
Bering and Aleutians tonight and Thursday but will decrease in
coverage by Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday a weak low
pressure system will move from east to west across the Bering with
winds generally less than 30 knots and areas of light rain.
Friday night into Saturday a stronger low pressure system tracks
towards the central Aleutians with near Gale force winds and more
rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...

A North Pacific low tracks over the Southern Bering through Sun
before crossing back into the North Pacific by Mon. How far north
it will track and its development of this storm are uncertain.
Small craft winds are likely to wrap the low through Mon, with
local gale force winds over the Eastern Aleutians, particularly
near channeled terrain on Sat.

Generally light winds over the Gulf through Midday Sun when high
pressure brings gusty westerly winds less than small craft over
the Northern Gulf late Sun into Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
A blocking ridge that is the dominant feature over most of the
mainland will attempt to be pushed towards the Bering late this
weekend and towards the early part of next week. The latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicating that a strong
polar low will work south across Canada, shoving the high
pressure bubble to the west as it weakens. The global forcing
responsible for much of our abnormal weather (MJO) is weakening and
that will start to trend the area back to normal weather for late
April. The Anchorage Bowl should still see 'mild' afternoons in
the mid 50s, while inland areas in the MatSu will soar into the
60s. Monday through Wednesday will see daytime highs slowly drop
from the mid 50s to upper 40s. As for any rain chances? It's
panning out to be dry through next week for all areas along the
coast and inland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121 (Anchor River).
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 138 155 165 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS/MK

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.