Small Craft Advisory 269, NWS Anchorage, AK

998 
FZAK51 PAFC 021154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030045-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Low pressure lingers across the Gulf through tonight. A 1013 mb
low forms 104 nm southwest of Cordova on Sat morning and moves to
144 nm southeast of Cordova at 1018 mb by Sat evening.

$$

PKZ119-030045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030045-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030045-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030045-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030045-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030045-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030045-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030045-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030045-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030045-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030045-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030045-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, except 6 ft in the outer bay.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1006 AM AKDT Thu Apr 1 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low is present south of Middleton Island this
morning over the Gulf of Alaska. The surface low is almost right
underneath the upper level low meaning this low is vertically
stacked. Due to this, the low is only slowly moving off to the
southeast. Cold air advection seeping through the gaps and passes
of the Alaska Range is causing strong gap winds. ASCAT
Scatterometer data confirms this as of the April 01/09z pass
verifying the storm force winds through the Barren Islands. The
rest of Southcentral remains quiet besides for some low to mid
level stratus clouds lingering around, especially around the
Anchorage Bowl. Temperatures area-wide are pretty uniform across
Southcentral in the upper teens and 20s. Also, gusty westerly
winds through Whittier are causing blowing issues this morning
with visibilities reduced to one half mile at times.

Northwest flow over Southwest Alaska is bringing in much colder
temperatures to start April with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures area wide are in the single digits below zero
to single digits above zero with teens and low 20s from Pilot
Point south.

A very strong upper level ridge of high pressure is present to
the south of the Aleutian Chain this morning with multiple pieces
of upper level energy riding along the northern periphery of this
ridge. As a result, temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to low
40s are being observed along the western and central Aleutians
with the Pribilofs south to around Cold Bay and False Pass being
the delineation line between the warm air and the colder air.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in great agreement on the synoptic scale
features for the next couple days. The main issues will be the
current low to mid level stratus present this morning across the
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley as well as in the Copper River
Basin. Hand edits were made for the local edit areas due to the
pattern in place for the typical favorable areas.

Out west, the main concern will be how long and how fast the snow
moves into the Kuskokwim Delta Coast before the warm air moves in
to change snow to rain. Most edits done this morning were for
this frontal system moving onshore this evening into Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected at the terminal
for the TAF package. A low to mid level stratus is currently
present over the terminal this morning that is expected to lift
above 5000 ft later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Weather has quieted for much of Southcentral AK. Low pressure that
was producing snowfall in the Copper River Basin and into
Anchorage yesterday has exited the area. This has made for quiet
weather for much on the mainland. Some isolated areas of light
snow are still lingering on the Glenn Highway. Whittier is seeing
reduced visibility due to windy conditions and blowing snow. This
is due to a weak low that continues to spin in the northern Gulf,
right over Middleton Island. High pressure and cold air have also
built into the mainland, so pressure gradient/cold advection gap
winds have developed along the coast in the usual locations -
Whittier included. Strong cold air advection also continues to
pour through the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges. This is keeping very
gusty winds and heavy freezing spray present around Kamishak Bay
and Shelikof Strait. So, the marine weather statement is still in
effect.

Going through the next couple days, flow shifts more westerly on
Friday, ending gap winds and cold air advection along the North
Gulf Coast. An upper level ridge moves in Friday into Saturday.
This sets up a quiet weekend for weather in Southcentral, with no
low pressure systems expected to enter the forecast area.
Temperatures still look to remain below normal, with highs around
freezing and lows in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front extending off of a low near the Kamchatka Peninsula
approaches the Southwest coast later this evening. The Winter
Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Kuskokwim Delta coast tonight into tomorrow morning. A quick shot
of snow ahead of the front, coupled with some gusty winds, may
result in visibility restrictions as low as one half mile due to
blowing snow. A much warmer air mass follows the front, allowing
for a transition to rain or a rain/snow mix by tomorrow morning.
Additionally, temperatures are expected to increase over the next
few days across Southwest. A high pressure ridge moves into the
western Bering late tonight and moves east over the next couple
days. This ridge gets flattened by lower pressure over the
northern Bering, causing the flow to become more zonal for the
next few days. A significant moisture feed wrapping around the
high pressure ridge keeps the southwest mainland, especially the
upslope areas of the mountain ranges, under prolonged, widespread
precipitation as we move into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Warm, westerly flow dominates the Bering over the next couple
days. Winds likely will not be overly strong with low end gales
along the western Bering through tonight diminishing to small
crafts by tomorrow morning. Gusty gap winds south of the AKPEN
persist through tonight, with heavy freezing spray continuing to
be a concern through this afternoon. There is a pretty significant
moisture feed wrapping around the high pressure ridge that sets
up over much of the Bering by tomorrow. Expect a persistent band
of precipitation to move across the Bering from west to east
Friday and Saturday. Since this airmass is much warmer, most of
the precipitation is expected to be rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering Sea:
Confidence is good through Monday, however, lower confidence on
track of low pressure near the Aleutians Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday, a low pressure system will move across the western and
central Aleutians with gales expected mainly south and west of the
low with westerly to northwesterly gales. This low will track
towards the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN on Sunday weakening to
mainly small crafts, however, gales will develop out of bays and
passes south of the AKPEN late Sunday into Monday. A stronger
front and low pressure system will move into the western Bering
Sunday and move east on Monday across the length of the Bering and
Aleutians with gales expected with this system.

Gulf of Alaska:
Confidence is good through Monday as winds and waves increase
across the Gulf. High pressure with small craft winds and waves 10
feet or less will dominate Saturday and Sunday, however, Monday a
low pressure system moves into the Gulf with the low
strengthening. The strongest winds on Monday will be northwest
gales out of bays and passes along the AKPEN including near Kodiak
and the Barren Islands, with seas building. Small craft and low
end gales are expected south of the low across the southern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday with higher winds across the northern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By late Saturday/early Sunday, the amplified pattern begins to
break down as a shortwave trough drops south over the northern
Bering, advancing a surface low pressure system inland over
western Alaska near Norton Sound. In response to the digging
trough, the ridge will flatten out and shift east, with its axis
somewhere near the AKPEN or Kodiak Island. The movement of these
upper-level features will provide a more zonal west/east flow
across the state. Shortwaves will track quickly through the west
to east upper-level flow, yielding lingering chances of snow
showers into early next week, especially for higher elevations.
This flow will also keep the core of cold air farther north,
allowing for temperatures near or slightly below normal across the
southern mainland.

A more potent, fast-moving shortwave will move from the western
Aleutians Sunday to the northern Gulf for late Monday. This
feature will bring rain and snow from Bristol Bay to coastal
Southcentral Alaska through Monday. It looks as if this feature
will stall over the northern Gulf as a second shortwave drops from
the Bering into the central Gulf. It is looking more likely that
these shortwaves will help to re-amplify the upper-level pattern
with the long-wave trough over the state and a ridge extending
from the western Aleutians north to the Bering Strait. This
pattern would keep conditions winter-like into next week, with a
northerly flow resulting in drier and cooler weather across the
inland areas of the southern mainland and snow showers along the
coast, as well as over the eastern Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155.
         Special Weather Statement 125.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130.
         Gale Warning 411 412 150 178 185 131 132 136 138.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 150 160 180 181 130 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/TM