Small Craft Advisory 230, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
FZAK51 PAFC 181134
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190045-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 mb low near the southern tip of Montague Island moves 
into the eastern Gulf late Thu night. A trough lingers along 
the North Gulf Coast through Fri afternoon. The next low 
approaches the southwestern Gulf late Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-190045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Near the coast, variable wind 15 kt 
becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta 
in the morning. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190045-
Resurrection Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190045-
Prince William Sound-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190045-
Port Valdez-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft 
in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190045-
Valdez Narrows-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190045-
Valdez Arm-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190045-
Passage Canal-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft 
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier early. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190045-
Barren Islands East-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190045-
Chiniak Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190045-
Marmot Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190045-
Shelikof Strait-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-190045-
Kachemak Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

040 
FZAK51 PAFC 182346
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191230-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low 40 nm South of Cordova moves to 65 nm South of 
Yakutat at 1010 mb, then dissipates Sat morning. A front enters the
Western Gulf Fri afternoon and extends across the Gulf by Sat 
afternoon. A 990 mb low forms 85 nm West of Sitkinak Sat morning 
and moves along the front to 45 nm Southeast of Kodiak City for 
Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kts out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kts out of the Copper River Delta in
the morning. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
Resurrection Bay-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
Prince William Sound-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
Port Valdez-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt during the evening. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
Valdez Narrows-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
Valdez Arm-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
Passage Canal-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier early. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray
after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
Barren Islands East-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
Chiniak Bay-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
Marmot Bay-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
Shelikof Strait-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
Kachemak Bay-
346 PM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level jet currently extends across the North Pacific
with an associated 500 mb low centered in the far western Bering.
A surface front extending southwestward from the vertically
stacked surface low is bringing snow showers to the Aleutians
generally west of Atka. Quieter conditions are seen over the
central and western Bering under an upper level ridge. Although
the usual lower stratus is seen on satellite, little to no fog is
expected. An upper low centered near the Bering Strait is
strengthening a low along its trough axis over Norton Sound. As
the associated surface moisture tracks to the west, light snow is
occurring over the Kuskokwim Delta. Mostly clear skies are seen
across Southcentral and the Copper River Basin with weak upper
level flow and generally calm surface winds. As such,
temperatures away from the coast will to near zero.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic models are generally in good short-term agreement. A low
will track near Prince William Sound on Thursday. There is some
uncertainty regarding if the strongest gap winds in the southern
Copper River Basin will accompany the heaviest snowfall. Also,
light snow on the backside of the low may make it into the
Anchorage bowl, although model placement of the snow band slightly
differs. In any case, this would produce only minor
accumulations. A series of fronts will continue the active pattern
across the Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy fog is possible through this morning leading to
potential brief periods of lower visibility. Skies will clear
after sunrise and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Thursday Night)...

Another beautiful, albeit cold, sunny day is on tap for much of
Southcentral today, once the nice strong March sun burns off the
fog and low stratus in the Copper River Basin, and in a much more
patchy form across the Cook Inlet region. The only weather of
significance today will be the ongoing gap winds through
Seward, Whittier, the Valdez Narrows, Thompson Pass, and the
Copper River Delta. These winds will diminish a bit through the
day as the gradient relaxes. This relaxation of the winds will be
brief however, as an upper level disturbance supports a new low
forming tonight across the northern Gulf.

The northwesterly low level flow with the disturbance is expected
to support the redevelopment of some snow across the area. This
time, however, with the Gulf low recently forming and remaining
weak, moisture will be sorely lacking in many areas. Therefore,
light will be the name of the game regarding snowfall intensity.
The favored areas for the light snow will be along the west
facing slopes of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains, including the
Anchorage Hillside. Even in these areas, an inch to at most two of
accumulation are possible. For the rest of Anchorage and the
western Kenai, flurries are most likely, with brief periods of
light snow resulting in less than a half inch of accumulation from
tonight through Thursday morning. Solar heating and the
disturbance passing overhead and moving off should end any
significant snow around midday.

Meanwhile further east, the low will pick up some Gulf moisture
and drop it as snow into Cordova, Valdez, and the neighboring
mountains, including Thompson Pass. This will be around the same
time as the winds are picking up once again with more cold air
moving in inland and the Gulf low adding to the gradient. Thus,
periods of blowing snow are likely through Thompson Pass during
the day on Thursday, and depending on how much transportable snow
is available, could result in visibilities dropping to a half
mile at times. The low will continue moving east through the day,
so while several inches of snow are expected in these areas, it
will not last too long. The gusty gap winds will continue through
Thursday night as the skies clear once again.

Looking ahead to Saturday, the model trends are moving south with
the track of the next Gulf low, meaning chances of snow are
dropping for much of Southcentral, though the gap winds and cold
temperatures will certainly continue. The one exception will be
around Kodiak, which could receive plowable amounts of snow,
along with gusty winds. There are still many details to be ironed
out though, so stay tuned as the significant weather focus shifts
to the island over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Wednesday
through Friday)...

A fast moving shortwave will move from the Norton Sound to the
Gulf today, bring a brief period of snow to the region. Blowing
snow is occurring this morning over the Kuskokwim Delta but
should taper off by noon as the front moves out of the area. For
the Lower Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay, westerly winds and up to 2
inches of snow are expected by the end of the day, with higher
amounts over the mountains. Northerly winds behind the front will
bring in cooler temperatures and mostly clear skies on Thursday.
The next frontal system will move in from the Bering on Friday,
with snow expected for coastal Bristol Bay by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Friday)...

A broad trough and frontal system will make its way east across
the Bering through the forecast period. Rain is expected to be the
predominate precipitation type along the front with snow possible
over the western Aleutians by Friday as cold air moves back in
from the west. Due to the broad nature of the system there is
little baroclinic energy and therefore winds should remain below
gale force.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf: A low moves into Southeast Alaska late Fri. A trough
lingers over the Northern Gulf through Sat. Model confidence is
good. Widespread westerly small craft winds and waves exit the
Gulf for Sat. A front enters the Southern Gulf late Fri and
extends across the Gulf through Sun. A low forms near Sitkinak and
moves to the Northeastern Gulf by Sun. North of the front:
easterly small craft winds for Sat and Sun, with gale force gap
winds near the Barren Islands on Sat. South of the Front:
widespread westerly small craft winds through Sun. Seas building
to 20 over the Southern Gulf Sun.

Bering: A Western Bering low moves to Bristol Bay for Sun. Its
front moves over the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians by Sun. Model
confidence is good. North of the front: Widespread easterly gale
force winds and waves diminishing to small craft Sat and
dissipating Sun. South of the front: widespread westerly small
craft winds, diminishing Sat. Seas to 20 feet over the Western
Bering Fri to Sat, subsiding. Gusty northerly flow less than small
craft over the Bering for Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast package reflects a blend of several global
models to hedge for divergence in solutions. There are a few items
to be gleaned despite the vagaries of the models. The pattern
looks highly progressive from the Bering to the Gulf Of Alaska.
At the onset, there are major shortwaves over the Aleutians,
Kamchatka and the Northwest Pacific. The Kamchatka energy will
phase with the NW Pacific energy bringing a batch of unsettled
wester to the Western Bering/Aleutians. While the aforementioned
shortwave over the Aleutians will move into the Gulf of Alaska
impacting Kodiak and SE AK. By Monday March 22, a new Arctic
trough will push across the Central Bering and into Western
Alaska. Meanwhile, for Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys it can be
said with confidence that the temperatures will remain brutally
cold. There is no warm up in sight for Anchorage.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Gale Warning: 130 131 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 121 130 139 160 180 185.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/PJS