Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

608 
FZAK51 PAFC 050547 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051830-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 956 mb low 235 nm southwest of Port Alexander Tue morning moves
to 130 nm south of Middleton Island at 959 mb Tue night and absorbs 
a North Pacific low to the south. This low then moves near Kodiak 
Island at 968 mb by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-051830-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051830-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051830-
Resurrection Bay-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051830-
Prince William Sound-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051830-
Port Valdez-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051830-
Valdez Narrows-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051830-
Valdez Arm-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051830-
Passage Canal-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051830-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.  Snow and rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051830-
Barren Islands East-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051830-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051830-
Chiniak Bay-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051830-
Marmot Bay-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain with snow. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051830-
Shelikof Strait-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051830-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the 
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051830-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051830-
Kachemak Bay-
847 PM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt during the evening. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

164 
FZAK51 PAFC 051236
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-060115-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 961 mb low 310 nm southwest of Sitka moves to 80 nm east of
Middleton Island at 962 mb Tue evening before moving inland and 
dissipating. Another 947 mb low 320 nm south of Kodiak City moves
to 40 nm northwest of Kodiak City at 966 mb by Wed morning before
moving inland by Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-060115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-060115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-060115-
Resurrection Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S wind 15 kt late. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-060115-
Prince William Sound-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft 
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-060115-
Port Valdez-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-060115-
Valdez Narrows-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-060115-
Valdez Arm-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-060115-
Passage Canal-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming W less than 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-060115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-060115-
Barren Islands East-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-060115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-060115-
Chiniak Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-060115-
Marmot Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-060115-
Shelikof Strait-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-060115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-060115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-060115-
Kachemak Bay-
336 AM AKST Tue Jan 5 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 AM AKST Mon Jan 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong upper level low was present this morning in between Nome
and Kotzebue. Farther south across Southcentral and the Copper
River Basin, southerly flow is present with weak upper level
shortwaves embedded in the overall flow. One of these shortwaves
brought some snow to much of Southcentral this morning.
Officially at NWS Anchorage, 0.8" of snow was measured from this
event last evening. The Copper River Basin continues to observe
low stratus and patchy fog this morning as a moist southerly flow
continues. Valdez was also having snow showers moving through the
area with visibility being reduced to as low as 3/4 mile at times.
Cordova has been warm enough overnight into this morning to be
observing mostly rain from this event. The next storm system can
be seen on nighttime microphysics imagery this morning over the
North Pacific. The clouds associated with this low pressure system
can be seen streaming northwestward through the Gulf towards the
southern Mainland. This will be the next weather maker that is
expected to bring some more light snow to Southcentral later
Monday.

Southwest Alaska remains quiet with mainly cold temperatures and
areas of low stratus. King Salmon and Iliamna were observing a low
stratus deck this morning. Bethel was also earlier in the night
but has since scattered out the low cloud deck. Temperatures
across the interior of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley were mostly
below zero with Sleetmute falling to as low as -25 degrees thus
far.

The very strong low pressure system that set the lowest pressure
record for Alaska continues to spin east of Shemya this morning as
a 968 mb low. As a result, on and off rain/snow showers continue
around this low with small crafts to some areas of gales.
Northerly flow is being observed north of the storm system which
is causing very cold air to flow over relatively warm water
creating an unstable atmospheric profile causing snow
showers/squalls in areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have finally come into pretty good agreement on the
synoptic scale features out through Day 3. The storm system over
the North Pacific is expected to continue moving northward and
eventually inland across Southeast Alaska. Some energy from this
system is expected to lift north and west through much of
Southcentral Monday afternoon and evening bringing some more
light snow to much of the area. Model guidance is now in agreement
on a more progressive upper level shortwave that will mainly push
a band of snow through Southcentral with the band not stalling
over any one region which some model guidance continued to do
even as of last evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at the
terminal for much of the morning. IFR/MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected to return to the terminal by this
afternoon as some more light snow moves through. By tonight,
conditions are expected to gradually improve back to VFR
conditions through Tuesday morning. However, a low cloud deck may
linger after the light snow ends possibly keeping an MVFR
ceiling. This was hinted at in the 12z TAF package but didn't
solidify into a ceiling.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper wave which brought snow to the Kenai and MAT-SU Valleys
overnight is moving north and weakening. A frontal trough moving
west across the Gulf will phase with an upper shortwave moving
north toward Southcentral and spread snow across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula later this morning and into the Anchorage
Bowl,Matanuska Valley, and Southern Susitna Valley this afternoon
into early evening. Models have continued to weaken this system
so except for higher snow amounts over the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, snow totals should not be much more then a couple of
inches across the Anchorage Bowl, MAT-SU Valleys. Brisk easterly
flow and the approach of the Gulf front will bring rain and snow
to Kodiak Island tonight which will likely transition to mainly
rain/rain showers on Tuesday. The offshore flow will eventually
return to the Mainland with drying conditions and the resurgence
of gusty gap winds, especially across the north Gulf Coast
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Several upper level waves will lift over Southwest today, keeping
snow showers in the forecast across the Bristol Bay coast. A low
centered south of the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday will allow several
additional shortwaves to track from east to west across Southwest
through Tuesday evening. This will bring precipitation to the
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast. Meanwhile over the
Kuskokwim Delta, an upper level trough drifts southward,
generating gusty northerly winds and snow showers along the coast
early Tuesday. Cold, northerly flow looks to remain in place
across the region through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A broad complex low centered over the central Aleutians will
gradually shift southward, allowing cold northerly flow to move in
across the Bering today. Widespread snow showers are expected to
persist across the Bering and along the Aleutian Chain through
Tuesday. An upper level wave near the Pribilofs moves southward
Tuesday afternoon, eventually becoming a closed low over the
central Aleutians Wednesday morning. While this feature tracks
quickly southward Wednesday, enhanced snowfall and gusty winds are
likely. Cold northerly flow persists across the Bering through
much of the week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Good confidence that two lows will be near/south of the Gulf by
Tues with one positioned well south of Kodiak and the other
moving northwest near the AK Panhandle. There are differences in
how models handle the interaction between the two lows as they
rotate about a common center. However, still expect a broad area
of small crafts to low end gales across the northern Gulf Tues to
early Wed as the larger low gradually moves north and absorbs the
remnants of the second low on Wed. A broader area of gales is
likely from the central to eastern Gulf as the dominant low center
reaches Kodiak Wed afternoon. The active pattern continues beyond
there with moderate confidence for another deeper low to cross
the Gulf from south to north Thu to early Fri. Models struggle
more with timing and intensity of this next system, and any
details for areas of higher winds/waves by this point are still
unclear.

Aleutians/Bering:

Generally quieter conditions expected by Tues with an area of
broad/elongated low pressure lingering near the eastern Aleutians
and AKPEN. Expect mainly small craft or lower northerly winds and
10-15 ft seas across much of the Bering Tues and Wed with locally
enhanced winds up to gale force through the straits/gaps south of
the eastern Aleutian chain. High confidence weak high pressure
will continue to build in across the Bering on Thu with northwest
winds diminishing to small craft or lower and seas also dropping
to 5-10 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Forecast confidence is generally good in the longer term with the
exception of the timing and track of one of several Gulf lows that
should swing in from the south around a separate center located
near Kodiak Island by Wed. The GFS shows a faster and more
northwesterly track for this system with a much deeper and
expansive surface circulation slinging into the Gulf coast on Thu,
not far from where the initial low moves inland on Wed. The
EC/Canadian still show a much slower, weaker and more southeast
low track that would have comparatively few impacts and would not
reach the northern Gulf coast until early Fri.

Despite the continued issues early on with the gulf low on Thu,
model consensus moves into remarkable agreement for Fri and Sat
with twin synoptic lows depicted clearly across open water by
reliable models by this point. The first of these two systems will
cross the Western Aleutians late Fri to Sat with gusty gale to
possibly storm force winds and areas of rain/snow around the low
and the associated frontal boundary as the center moves east.
Similar conditions will be likely with a second large low
simultaneously moving into the southern Gulf on Sat. Conditions
during the period will be quieter for the mainland, except for
periods of coastal rain/snow and heavier mountain snow near the
northern Gulf coastline in associated with the aforementioned
systems.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 139 140 178
Heavy Freezing Spray 414 139 140 160 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/JPW