Small Craft Advisory 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

354 
FZAK51 PAFC 140041
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141315-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the Southwest Gulf and stretches across the Gulf 
through Mon afternoon. A 996 mb low forms on the front 15 nm South
of Kodiak City Sun afternoon and moves along the front across the
Gulf through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141315-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141315-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141315-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141315-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141315-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141315-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141315-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. S of Dangerous Cape, E wind 35 kt
becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141315-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to
1 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141315-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141315-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-141315-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern is similar today to the past few days with
an upper level ridge center over the AlCan border and a large low
south of the Central Aleutians. The ridge center is a little
farther south today and building over the interior of the state
and into Southcentral. The 250 mb jet stream remains well south of
the area but there is a trough in it which is supporting a strong
surface low centered in the far southeastern Gulf of Alaska. This
low will keep a tight gradient over the Southern Gulf but the low
center will stay south of the area.

A surface low is over the Central Aleutians with a trough that
extends northward to the Bering Strait this afternoon. Another low
is developing south of the Aleutians in the forward left exit
region of a strong jet streak well south of the Aleutians. This
low will become the dominant low in the Bering Sea region this
weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in overall better agreement than they have been for
much of the week. Through the weekend there is very little
significant difference in operational model run. During the middle
of next week there becomes a bigger difference in the way the
large low in the Bering Sea weakens and then moves northeastward.
The good news is that it can be discerned with reasonable
confidence that this will be the overall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday afternoon)...

The remnants of a front are currently bringing isolated snow
showers to the Southern Kenai Peninsula. These will taper off
through the evening. Snow showers will continue across Kodiak
Island through Saturday in a moist, southeasterly flow. Another
front will approach the island late Saturday into Sunday. Initial
light snow is possible, however it is quickly expected to transition
to rain as surface temperatures warm to near 40. The front will
gradually track northward leading to light precipitation for the
southern and eastern Kenai Peninsula into Monday.

Elsewhere, clear skies and cooler temperatures will persist across
the mainland in weak offshore flow. Clouds will increase from
south to north over Southcentral by Sunday as the aforementioned
front approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Friday Afternoon through Monday)...

Clearing skies tonight as high pressure over the Interior of
Alaska takes hold through Saturday. Cooler temperatures expected
tonight and Saturday about 10 degrees cooler than today. On Sunday
a frontal system will move from the south, bringing increasing
clouds and warming temperatures into the upper 20s and 30s. Light
snow will develop mainly near coastal locations but a few flurries
can't be ruled out inland. Overall, very minor snow accumulations
are expected. Monday the front will move north and west of the
area with a return to slightly cooler temperatures again. Clouds
will linger on Monday a few light snow flurries around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Friday Afternoon through Monday)...

The active weather pattern will continue through early next week
for the Aleutians and Bering as low pressure dominates the area.

Tonight and Saturday a storm force low will move north producing
gusts of 50 to 60 kts across the Eastern Aleutians where areas
from Dutch Harbor to the AKPEN will see another round of strong
winds late tonight through Saturday. This low will bring a warm
front across the Southern and Eastern Bering Sea Saturday night
into Sunday which will increase the pressure gradient across the
Bering with gales returning to much of the Bering. The low
pressure will weaken as it moves into the southern Bering with
storm force winds decreasing to gales by Sunday morning. The warm
front will rotate north and west and reach St. Matthew Island by
Sunday afternoon, however only a minor warm up expected so fishing
operations will still have to deal with gales and heavy freezing
spray. It may lessen a bit Sunday afternoon and evening as this
weak warm front moves across the northern Bering. This gale force
low will continue to weaken on Monday with gales decreasing to
small crafts across most areas by Monday afternoon. Colder air
will return to the Northern Bering on Monday morning keeping the
threat of heaving freezing spray for the Northern Bering
including areas near and west of St. Matthew Island.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Monday through Wednesday...

Bering Sea: A strong low just north of the Central Aleutians
wobbles just north of the Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday. Models
vary, but confidence is good. Widespread high end small craft
winds and waves with areas of gale force winds over the western
half of the Bering diminishing Wednesday. Areas of heavy freezing
spray and waves to 20 feet over the Western Bering move southward
and subside Tuesday. Waves to 18 feet on the Pacific side for the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula subside Tuesday.

Gulf of Alaska: Near small craft winds and waves extend along the
North Gulf Coast over the Barren Islands, Cook Inlet and Shelikof
Strait which will diminish Tuesday. A weak Gulf low moves into
Prince William Sound Tuesday. Wave heights to 14 feet over the
Central Gulf moving south of Kodiak Island and subsiding Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast period begins with the longwave trough from the
Chukchi Sea extending across the Bering Sea and into the North
Pacific. Aloft there is a closed low near Adak and another closed
low just north of the Bering Strait. There are numerous weak
shortwaves from the Western Bering to Prince William Sound. It is
categorically an unsettled pattern for the Bering, Gulf and North
Pacific. Some of this energy from the Bering will get ejected
from the upper low and push across portions of Southcentral. But
there are some timing and placement issues with these upper level
perturbations amongst the global models. To account for the
vagaries in solutions, multiple models were blended to produce the
long term forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS: 150 155 165 170 172.
         GALES: 130-132 138 160 171 173 174 178 179 180 411-414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY: 180 185.
         MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT: 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/PJS