Small Craft Advisory 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

675 
FZAK52 PAFC 121300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130215-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 160 nm southeast of Adak moves 160 nm southwest of
Adak at 971 mb Fri night and then dissipates. A North Pacific low
moves 230 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 957 mb Fri night. The low 
then moves 270 nm southwest of Saint Paul Island at 961 mb Sat 
night.

$$

PKZ150-130215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt decreasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130215-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130215-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130215-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft Bering side...14 ft Pacific side. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130215-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to
30 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 45 kt.
Seas in ice free waters 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKST Thu Feb 11 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper levels remain pretty much unchanged. Strong high pressure
both in the upper and lower levels persists across much of the
state with the pressure center over Northern Canada. A series of
upper level waves and front push across the Bering over the next
few days. An inverted trough off a North Pacific low moving
across the Bering extending far enough to scoot along the
Southwest Coast. This creates unsettled weather for these areas
and aids in moving/weakening the upper level ridge that has been
dominating the State. Once this ridge is weakened, a second North
Pacific low approaching the Eastern Aleutians on Saturday will be
able to use its associated trough to push the upper level ridge
north/northeast and out of the Southern region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, good model agreement on the synoptic scale for the first
couple days. Discrepancies begin Friday night into Saturday with a
North Pacific surface low. The NAM is the biggest outlier,
bringing the surface low into the Southern Gulf late Friday night,
while the GFS/EC/Canadian keep it out of the Gulf completely and
track it towards the coast of Western Canada. By late Saturday
morning, the NAM dissipates this surface low and comes back into
better agreement with the rest of the models. A separate,
stronger North Pacific low approaches the Eastern Aleutians on
Saturday afternoon. Models agreement is fair for the development
of this system and overall northerly push. By Saturday night,
model spread gets quite large as it attempts to cross into the
Bering, with each solutions track diverging into separate
directions. Strength remains relatively consistent through
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday Night)...

The well-advertised front has finally reached Kodiak Island this
morning. As forecast, the precipitation type has been back-and-
forth between rain and snow in Kodiak City, with temperatures
staying safely above freezing in the mid-30s, despite the
occasional snow. The precipitation is also falling through strong
winds sustained between 35 and 40 mph with higher gusts. Thus, it
is a far from pleasant morning across the island. Unfortunately,
this will be the steady state of the forecast across much of the
island through at least tonight, but likely well into Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected from around midday today
through this evening. Fortunately while this happens, the peak of
the warmest air will also move through. This makes sense as this
moisture essentially is originating in the tropics, so the
greatest moisture and warmest air are collocated. Thus, while the
heavy intensity of the precipitation might bring snow levels down
a bit due to dynamic cooling, it's most likely the dominant
precipitation type will stay rain at sea level. That said, the
freezing level is very low, with an unstable atmosphere near the
surface. On this morning's 12Z sounding, the freezing level was
573 feet above sea level. Thus, one would not have to go too far
above sea level for accumulating snow to become more likely. That
said, the warming environmental air should work to raise those
freezing levels a little bit with the heaviest precipitation
today.

On Friday, as a maturing North Pacific low approaches the
southern Gulf, the front over Kodiak will weaken and move south as
the low takes up most of the moisture for itself. This will allow
a cooler air mass to move in, allowing freezing levels to return
to near sea level. While the flow will still be off the waters
that remain near 40 degrees, the cooler air should allow for any
precipitation from Friday afternoon on to be in the form of snow.
With that said, precipitation rates by then will be nothing like
they will be later today, and as such, any accumulations will be
minor Friday afternoon into Friday night. The onshore flow will at
least keep chances of snow ongoing straight through into
Saturday, though long-duration steady snow is not expected. The
Gulf low will retreat south and east by Saturday, only to be
replaced by another front that will quickly move in from the
south. While this second front will return Kodiak Island to steady
precipitation, it too will have warmer air associated with it,
and unlike the first front looks to make better northward progress
past Kodiak Island and into the north Gulf Coast. Thus,
precipitation-wise, a changeover from snow to rain Saturday night
is expected in Kodiak.

The rest of mainland Alaska stays quiet for the most part, with
the exception of some mostly nuisance snow (relative to some of
our much bigger and longer lasting events this winter) through
the Kenai Mountains into tonight. Elsewhere, we stay dry from
Kenai-Soldotna north and east right through Saturday. Skies will
gradually clear by Friday for most areas, which should allow
temperatures to fall back below normal (though not nearly as cold
as our recent snap) by Saturday. In the meantime, above normal
highs are expected today for most areas under mainly cloudy skies.

One final point, the Homer area will see drastically increasing
winds with some snow later today as one of the only areas of
Southcentral to be hit by the front unleashing most of its energy
on Kodiak. Wind shear will also be a factor around Homer for
aviation interests through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday)...

The upper level ridge has moved north towards the Interior as a
shortwave supporting a warm front moves up from the south. The
front will move into Bristol Bay tonight and continue to produce
light snow in the Kuskokwim Delta and Kilbuck Mountains. Winds
will continue to increase through Thursday as a stronger shortwave
and frontal system moves towards the area Thursday afternoon
through the evening hours this will tighten up the pressure
gradient even more with very gusty winds and blowing snow. As the
front pushes north and west temperatures will warm into the 30s
which will put an end to the blowing snow Thursday evening in the
Kuskokwim Delta. The snow will also end as the front pushes
northwest. A winter weather advisory continues through 6 PM
Thursday evening for coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta, it may
need to be extended if temperatures are slow to warm up as it will
remain windy through at least midnight.

Friday the area will dry out and winds will decrease with
lingering clouds and temperatures in the upper 20s to the 30s.
Saturday will feature quiet weather with temperatures a bit
cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday)...

The active pattern continues for the foreseeable future across the
Bering and Aleutians as low pressure dominates much of the area as
the upper level ridge has been pushed north from roughly St
Matthew Island and south and east towards the Gulf.

Widespread Gales will continue through Thursday across much of the
Bering as well as heavy freezing spray across the Northern
Bering. A low will form along the front moving across the AKPEN
tomorrow and swinging across the eastern Bering this will bring a
swath of storm force winds south of the AKPEN tonight and moving
into Bristol Bay and the eastern Bering Thursday morning. The
front will push north and west Thursday and by Thursday night the
front will be near Nunivak Island and extending southwest just
north of St Paul Island. Behind this front will be slightly warmer
air and decreasing winds on Friday with small crafts across much
of the Bering with a few lingering areas of Gales especially in
the eastern and western Bering Sea. Saturday a complex low
pressure system will approach the central and eastern Aleutians
with a storm force low spreading gales and storm force winds into
the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN Saturday morning and spreading
into the southern Bering Sea. Gales will also increase from south
to north across much of the Bering with an increasing threat of
heavy freezing spray in the northern Bering on Saturday which may
once again impact fishing operations in the northern Bering this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Saturday through Monday...

Bering Sea: Heavy freezing spray is likely in the northern Bering
Sea near the ice edge. Widespread gale force winds and waves with
local areas of high end gale force winds nearly cover the Bering
through Sunday. Wave heights for the eastern Aleutians, Alaska
Peninsula and Bering over 20 feet. The Western Bering will have
wave heights over 30 feet Sunday and then improve on Monday.

Gulf of Alaska: Models are in good agreement with a strong front
diminishing early Saturday. Gustier winds linger through the
Barren Island and Shelikof Strait through late Saturday. A new
band of gale force winds and waves moves into the Southwest Gulf
early Sunday. Wave heights to 26 feet east of Kodiak Island
subsiding Saturday. A new area of waves to 20 feet build
Southwest of Sitkinak for Sunday. The models diverge past Sunday
bringing an element of uncertainty for the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

There is a fair amount of divergence with the model solutions
that amplifies with time. There are a few items that can be
gleaned. Cold air will continue to advect from Russia towards the
Western Aleutians. There will be 2-3 lows impacting the Bering and
Aleutians. The ridge is going to start breaking down allowing for
a more progressive pattern. Some of the energy from the Bering
and North Pacific storms will get kicked towards Kodiak, the
Western Aleutian Range and the Gulf. The Canadian and the GFS are
spinning up an arctic front that push across Southcentral late in
the period on Thursday/Friday. Multiple models were blended to
produce the long term forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155
MARINE...Storm Warning 130-132 150 160 180 185
		 Gale Warning 119 120 136-139 141 155 165 170 177-179 181 351-352 411-414
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS